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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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As someone south of I-80 how concerned should the general area be about the ice amounts if solutions like those verify? I know it doesn't take much to cause problems.
I think it's a bit of a wait and see until we have an even better idea on exact surface low track and can see signs of where things are pointing toward regarding position and magnitude of warm nose aloft.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z GEM following the trend of bumping NW early on and peaking west, then shearing steadily east.

 

 

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Regarding timing.  Is the slower solution the reason for the peak out west then the shear?   If we had the exact same setup, but quicker system, would we see the peak further east?

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I would love to read RC's thoughts on the GFS boundary layer warming in the LOT cwa with a weakening surface low taking that track.
I don't think even this version of the GFS has a great handle on boundary layer processes. My conceptual model is that unless the surface low tracks into our CWA, the strengthening northeast flow from lower dewpoint air to the east and northeast plus evaporative cooling as precip starts is going to make it tough to warm effectively. If anything, the later precip start could allow for maybe slightly more BL warming than if precip were starting earlier, but on the other hand, gonna be socked in with lowering and thickening overcast. The GFS is hard to trust in properly handling evaporative cooling in the boundary layer.

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3 hours ago, hlcater said:

I dont think I've seen an output like the 18z euro for this area inside of FH100 maybe ever. If I have, it's been since GHDII, but I think that only spit out 10-12" out this way with higher numbers east.

Fridge caliber run

Current Euro seems a bit more generous with snowfall than it used to be. As for GHD-2 here is a h54 map at 10:1 and it looks beefy for Chicago. That's about the time-frame things really began to gel.

37904978_20150201-0z54hrEuroSnowfallMap.thumb.png.221ab7941309cbac85e708c65e50d157.png

 

48h GFS pumped out the greatest totals on a map for my region since I've lived here ('02). And to clarify, I mean totals that were realistic.

1821966953_20150131-12z48hrGFSSnowfallMap.gif.38d6c751693f4ee7fb1290828796d0eb.gif

425718419_20150131-12z48hrGFSSnowfallZoomed.GIF.594672848990ba7e09a97b494e5ee19a.GIF

 

 

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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Current Euro seems a bit more generous with snowfall than it used to be. As for GHD-2 here is a h54 map at 10:1 and it looks beefy for Chicago. That's about the time-frame things really began to gel.

37904978_20150201-0z54hrEuroSnowfallMap.thumb.png.221ab7941309cbac85e708c65e50d157.png

 

48h GFS pumped out the greatest totals on a map for my region since I've lived here ('02). And to clarify, I mean totals that were realistic.

1821966953_20150131-12z48hrGFSSnowfallMap.gif.38d6c751693f4ee7fb1290828796d0eb.gif

425718419_20150131-12z48hrGFSSnowfallZoomed.GIF.594672848990ba7e09a97b494e5ee19a.GIF

 

 

The more I see maps from that event vs this one, the less I feel they’ll even compare. Nevertheless, this will be  good one

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

The more I see maps from that event vs this one, the less I feel they’ll even compare. Nevertheless, this will be  good one

Maybe, but the point is that at this point during GHDII Chicagoans were sad about a miss south. There's definitely time to beef this baby up... Maybe.

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Two main reasons why the sfc low begins to weaken as it moves east, in my opinion:
1) H5 vort max peaks in strength over the S Plains states
2) Vort max begins to elongate/stretch/weaken as it becomes under the influence of the Quebec confluence zone
Very valid points you make aside, I'm struggling to come around to the idea that the precip shield of a well developed mid latitude cyclone is going to be that bullied by confluence from the north when the system had already established an expansive moderate to heavy precip shield. I think that it would be a more gradual process.

An event that comes to my mind from growing up in NY is the Feb 5-6 2010 mid atlantic "snowmageddon" blizzard. That was probably the strongest west based -NAO on record amidst a record prolonged -AO. The confluence over the NYC metro was true buzzsaw stuff on the north edge. But yet the system itself didn't get shredded apart, it just led to one of the most extreme north side gradients you'll ever see (~30" in PHL and T at KNYC). As a snowlover, it was a nightmare scenario.

But I think I go back to it because I want to believe a model like the GEM is depicting too rapid of destructive interference on the system. Itll happen eventually but I'd think longitude of my area has more wiggle room than points east. It's like a hurricane making landfall, it loses its heat source and eventually the whole system winds down but the precip doesn't fall apart immediately.

If we're talking unimpeded Gulf trajectories, a well developed trowal and intense low and mid level f-gen into Iowa at our latitude, is the precip shield all of a sudden gonna dance southeast because of confluence? I'll end my rambling but that's my thought process on this. I buy the weakening eastward of the synoptic system because it makes sense but not such a rapid modulation of the precip swath.

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Easily the most aggressive model with the shearing of the wave right now. No other model is really even close.
Yes, what I'm trying to convey below your post, but you in so many less words lol. Putting trust in the ECMWF because it's been the most consistent doesn't guarantee anything to the eventual outcome, but I think it being more stable and well within its ensemble envelope is useful confidence building information for the forecast process.

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