Stebo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Except for 12/17 It didn't get good until around 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, bl5585 said: As someone south of I-80 how concerned should the general area be about the ice amounts if solutions like those verify? I know it doesn't take much to cause problems. imo, even a tenth could start to cause issues if it's coupled with gusts ~35 mph, let alone anything more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 0z RGEM looks to bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: It didn't get good until around 30 hours. Really? Thought it was closer to 54 hours. Once again, I’m by no means advocating the NAM solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 RGEM is going to be a good bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z RGEM looks to bump north. Big bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Stebo said: Big bump north. Bad news is slightly more confluence over Lakes/Northeast...Which means it'll shear out fairly quickly to the east. So win/loss there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Guess what else bumped a bit north? Give you a hint, it starts with "I" and ends with "CON" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Bad news is slightly more confluence over Lakes/Northeast...Which means it'll shear out fairly quickly to the east. So win/loss there. Yeah, though some of that confluence is because of the shit that shoots east, idk if I buy that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Bad news is slightly more confluence over Lakes/Northeast...Which means it'll shear out fairly quickly to the east. So win/loss there. And indeed that's the case. Ended up a good bit further north to start, but ends up only a tick north further east due to the aforementioned confluence over the Lakes/Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Malacka11 said: Guess what else bumped a bit north? Give you a hint, it starts with "I" and ends with "CON" StormfanaticInd weenie suicide watch hoisted 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: And indeed that's the case. Ended up a good bit further north to start, but ends up only a tick north further east due to the aforementioned confluence over the Lakes/Northeast. Yeah there are some issues that definitely look off though too. that piece of vorticity that shoots way ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Real talk...the GFS and ECMWF are flirting with precip type issues. The RGEM and NAM are still well south but trending north. Happy where we sit. All about model solution convergence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Man if this doesn’t verify well tomorrow, not saying that will be the case, but if it doesn’t this board is gonna lose it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: Big bump north. Regional gem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, hlcater said: Regional gem? Yes it started going north then shit the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Real talk...the GFS and ECMWF are flirting with precip type issues. The RGEM and NAM are still well south but trending north. Happy where we sit. All about model solution convergence Gotta say I don't remember many big snowstorms that hit you hard and screwed me. Talking downtown Chicago area and not well west like ORD. If I end up getting screwed on precip type, chances are it will find a way to screw you too. You never know though. I had not remembered seeing a synoptic storm like 2/24/2016 with that hellacious gradient between my location and the city, and it happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Gotta say I don't remember many big snowstorms that hit you hard and screwed me. Talking downtown Chicago area and not well west like ORD. If I end up getting screwed on precip type, chances are it will find a way to screw you too. You never know though. I had not remembered seeing a synoptic storm like 2/24/2016 with that hellacious gradient between my location and the city, and it happened. Oh, that was a nightmare. Please don't ever speak of it again! ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Gotta say I don't remember many big snowstorms that hit you hard and screwed me. Talking downtown Chicago area and not well west like ORD. If I end up getting screwed on precip type, chances are it will find a way to screw you too. You never know though. I had not remembered seeing a synoptic storm like 2/24/2016 with that hellacious gradient between my location and the city, and it happened. I feel like the tight gradients always end up less dramatic than modeled. You’ll do fine man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: Oh, that was a nightmare. Please don't ever speak of it again! ha It was insane. If you didn't know any better, you would've thought you were looking at a lake effect snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS looks North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS looks NorthSolid bump NW early on.Question is will it do what the RGEM did.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Solid bump NW early on.Question is will it do what the RGEM did..It does not.Solid bump NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ugh this northerly trend needs to stop. GFS is super amped early on. This is definitely starting to feel like an I80 special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Solid bump NW early on. Question is will it do what the RGEM did. . Nope, taking a classic Metro Buried path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This run verbatim would bring precip type issues into Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 QPF is paltry and too low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 What's behind it is starting to look interesting as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Lake enhancement lasts a good 10-12 hours post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: What's behind it is starting to look interesting as well Was just thinking that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts