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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, bl5585 said:

As someone south of I-80 how concerned should the general area be about the ice amounts if solutions like those verify? I know it doesn't take much to cause problems.

imo, even a tenth could start to cause issues if it's coupled with gusts ~35 mph, let alone anything more.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Bad news is slightly more confluence over Lakes/Northeast...Which means it'll shear out fairly quickly to the east.

So win/loss there.

Yeah, though some of that confluence is because of the shit that shoots east, idk if I buy that at all.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Bad news is slightly more confluence over Lakes/Northeast...Which means it'll shear out fairly quickly to the east.

So win/loss there.

And indeed that's the case. Ended up a good bit further north to start, but ends up only a tick north further east due to the aforementioned confluence over the Lakes/Northeast.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

And indeed that's the case. Ended up a good bit further north to start, but ends up only a tick north further east due to the aforementioned confluence over the Lakes/Northeast.

Yeah there are some issues that definitely look off though too. that piece of vorticity that shoots way ahead

 

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Just now, mimillman said:

Real talk...the GFS and ECMWF are flirting with precip type issues. The RGEM and NAM are still well south but trending north. Happy where we sit. All about model solution convergence

Gotta say I don't remember many big snowstorms that hit you hard and screwed me.  Talking downtown Chicago area and not well west like ORD.  If I end up getting screwed on precip type, chances are it will find a way to screw you too.  You never know though.  I had not remembered seeing a synoptic storm like 2/24/2016 with that hellacious gradient between my location and the city, and it happened.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta say I don't remember many big snowstorms that hit you hard and screwed me.  Talking downtown Chicago area and not well west like ORD.  If I end up getting screwed on precip type, chances are it will find a way to screw you too.  You never know though.  I had not remembered seeing a synoptic storm like 2/24/2016 with that hellacious gradient between my location and the city, and it happened.

Oh, that was a nightmare. Please don't ever speak of it again! ha

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta say I don't remember many big snowstorms that hit you hard and screwed me.  Talking downtown Chicago area and not well west like ORD.  If I end up getting screwed on precip type, chances are it will find a way to screw you too.  You never know though.  I had not remembered seeing a synoptic storm like 2/24/2016 with that hellacious gradient between my location and the city, and it happened.

I feel like the tight gradients always end up less dramatic than modeled. You’ll do fine man 

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