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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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Thanks for the update.  Any discussion on mixing issues near the lake?  Or southern sections?
Re. mixing issues near the lake, even though the lake is very mild for late Jan, I think it's probably still cold enough to preclude something like what happened in the November 2015 and 2018 events. If anything, assuming mixing line stays south, could see ratios being held lower along lake and just inland earlier on in the event due to the strong northeast flow.

All the above said, if a 18z GFS and ECMWF (operational and ensemble) type solution verifies, or north of that, mixing south of I-80 is a lock and possibly up to or a bit north of I-80 for a time on Monday before cold air comes in on the backside. I do think the block will be our friend in helping avoid a much farther north mixing line.

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8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Re. mixing issues near the lake, even though the lake is very mild for late Jan, I think it's probably still cold enough to preclude something like what happened in the November 2015 and 2018 events. If anything, assuming mixing line stays south, could see ratios being held lower along lake and just inland earlier on in the event due to the strong northeast flow.

All the above said, if a 18z GFS and ECMWF (operational and ensemble) type solution verifies, or north of that, mixing south of I-80 is a lock and possibly up to or a bit north of I-80 for a time on Monday before cold air comes in on the backside. I do think the block will be our friend in helping avoid a much farther north mixing line.

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Wait you mean this west based -NAO is saving this event? :rolleyes:

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

All the above said, if a 18z GFS and ECMWF (operational and ensemble) type solution verifies, or north of that, mixing south of I-80 is a lock and possibly up to or a bit north of I-80 for a time on Monday before cold air comes in on the backside.

As someone south of I-80 how concerned should the general area be about the ice amounts if solutions like those verify? I know it doesn't take much to cause problems.

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50 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Good evening y'all, just got back from the office a bit ago. Fun shift. Would be happy to answer any LOT specific questions if anyone has any. Regarding who's working in the lead up, I'll be back on evenings with Ratzer tomorrow through Monday and I expect I'll probably be doing evening update AFDs. Our midnight crew is the same as last night (Carlaw and Kluber) and it'll be them through the event. Dayshifts will be MTF and Petr. We should be in good hands. Glad that we stayed the course with the most consistent guidance in terms of our forecast lean and messaging in light of guidance trends already for 18z cycle. Here's to a good 00z cycle.

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I graduated with Kluber. We lived on the same hall in our freshmen dorm and were pretty good friends. 

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32 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Weathermodels.com has at least the 18z Euro.

Weatherbell has all the model runs and ensemble runs it's only like $25 a month. A great investment for a weather geek. You can also get a yearly subscription for a slight discount, but I will probably cancel during the boring months and then renew in the fall lol

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