steve23guy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Mmm starting to look better for me by the day in southern rock county Wisconsin :) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Hopefully given the trends, TV channels can start getting the word out. I can see people getting confused when they only get an inch from the Sunday event and are surprised by much more from the main event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, steve23guy said: Mmm starting to look better for me by the day in southern rock county Wisconsin Go away not allowed 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Thanks for the update. Any discussion on mixing issues near the lake? Or southern sections?Re. mixing issues near the lake, even though the lake is very mild for late Jan, I think it's probably still cold enough to preclude something like what happened in the November 2015 and 2018 events. If anything, assuming mixing line stays south, could see ratios being held lower along lake and just inland earlier on in the event due to the strong northeast flow.All the above said, if a 18z GFS and ECMWF (operational and ensemble) type solution verifies, or north of that, mixing south of I-80 is a lock and possibly up to or a bit north of I-80 for a time on Monday before cold air comes in on the backside. I do think the block will be our friend in helping avoid a much farther north mixing line. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Re. mixing issues near the lake, even though the lake is very mild for late Jan, I think it's probably still cold enough to preclude something like what happened in the November 2015 and 2018 events. If anything, assuming mixing line stays south, could see ratios being held lower along lake and just inland earlier on in the event due to the strong northeast flow. All the above said, if a 18z GFS and ECMWF (operational and ensemble) type solution verifies, or north of that, mixing south of I-80 is a lock and possibly up to or a bit north of I-80 for a time on Monday before cold air comes in on the backside. I do think the block will be our friend in helping avoid a much farther north mixing line. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Wait you mean this west based -NAO is saving this event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: All the above said, if a 18z GFS and ECMWF (operational and ensemble) type solution verifies, or north of that, mixing south of I-80 is a lock and possibly up to or a bit north of I-80 for a time on Monday before cold air comes in on the backside. As someone south of I-80 how concerned should the general area be about the ice amounts if solutions like those verify? I know it doesn't take much to cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 50 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Good evening y'all, just got back from the office a bit ago. Fun shift. Would be happy to answer any LOT specific questions if anyone has any. Regarding who's working in the lead up, I'll be back on evenings with Ratzer tomorrow through Monday and I expect I'll probably be doing evening update AFDs. Our midnight crew is the same as last night (Carlaw and Kluber) and it'll be them through the event. Dayshifts will be MTF and Petr. We should be in good hands. Glad that we stayed the course with the most consistent guidance in terms of our forecast lean and messaging in light of guidance trends already for 18z cycle. Here's to a good 00z cycle. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I graduated with Kluber. We lived on the same hall in our freshmen dorm and were pretty good friends. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Which premium weather sites have the 18z euro and 18z gem? Weathermodels.com has at least the 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 0z NAM looks to bump north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM looks to bump north. Agree looking at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 32 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Weathermodels.com has at least the 18z Euro. Weatherbell has all the model runs and ensemble runs it's only like $25 a month. A great investment for a weather geek. You can also get a yearly subscription for a slight discount, but I will probably cancel during the boring months and then renew in the fall lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM looks to bump north. Well it was so far south, it basically has nowhere to go but north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 INCOMING ON 00Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I don’t see a huge difference yet tbh. It’s faster, that’s about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 nvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM looks to bump north. A bump north, but nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Well it was so far south, it basically has nowhere to go but north Or it can still be south, just slightly less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don’t see a huge difference yet tbh. It’s faster, that’s about it By no means do I support the NAM btw, was just an observance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: By no means do I support the NAM btw, was just an observance It seems to be the outlier by a fairly wide margin at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 snow shield edging north into chicago metro on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Riding the nam....-_- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Or it can still be south, just slightly less so. So north of south then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 North but still easy toss, grossly underdoing the strength of the low and cold sector precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The NAM low track remains south of the Ohio River whereas the majority of 18z EPS & GEFS tracks are north of the ohio river 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Stebo said: North but still easy toss, grossly underdoing the strength of the low and cold sector precip. sref looked more in line with gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 StormfanaticInd losing even the NAM though. Gonna move on to the ICON after this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, michsnowfreak said: sref looked more in line with gefs Yes, the NAM is the easiest toss in the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yes, the NAM is the easiest toss in the world. Especially beyond 30 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Especially beyond 30 hours Except for 12/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 00z NAM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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