Frog Town Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Stebo said: Yeah you and IWX's CWA can win on these as well, see GHD or 99 blizzard. That's right, thank you for remembering and responding. It was a very tight gradient as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 24 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah this has the traditional nina look to it, Ohio gets the rain. Yeah that's how it goes. We can get lucky from time to time and stay all snow but we're typically limited to front end thumps or backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, Stebo said: I mean there is always a chance the GFS could be right and the northern stream suppresses everything, but I am hedging by bet that it is a bit too overzealous. There’s always a chance, but we’re in the business of making an educated guess based on past performance and probability! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: There’s always a chance, but we’re in the business of making an educated guess based on past performance and probability! In that case I think we have no clue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, Stebo said: I mean there is always a chance the GFS could be right and the northern stream suppresses everything, but I am hedging by bet that it is a bit too overzealous. Although they never made it within 168 hours, the last 2 or 3 signals ended up getting suppressed way south. I think that's my only glimmer of hope at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: In that case I think we have no clue Touché. Obviously in this dog of a winter there will be no perfect solution, but I think we get closest we can in this set up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Another epic letdown in a long series of epic letdowns in the works. We all know how this ends 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Another epic letdown in a long series of epic letdowns in the works. We all know how this ends Suppress it to the gulf! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 18z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 For those keeping early score, the 0z NAM is very GFS-like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 While the ICON looks like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 At 90 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 0z GFS caving significantly, however still has work to be done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS caving significantly. . Positive trends at H5 with the northern vort further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 0z GEM went the opposite direction, and looks similar to 0z GFS.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 0z GEM went the opposite direction, and looks similar to 0z GFS..Big difference is that it now ejects out most of the 1st wave, which leads to other slight changes.Looks like this is what the potential will hinge on, and we should know how that’ll end up by tomorrow night.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Big difference is that it now ejects out most of the 1st wave, which leads to other slight changes. Looks like this is what the potential will hinge on, and we should know how that’ll end up by tomorrow night. The Canadian trough digs a fair amount more into the upper midwest this run, which will likely kill the second wave for the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 If this fails, Joe is banned from starting storm threads. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 The Canadian trough digs a fair amount more into the upper midwest this run, which will likely kill the second wave for the I-80 corridor.It does, which is partially due to the 1st wave ejecting out and interacting with the northern wave. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 If this fails, Joe is banned from starting storm threads.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: . Better start doing a snow dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Better start doing a snow dance.i had a good run in winter 13-14’.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: i had a good run in winter 13-14’. . Centuries ago, plus anyone could have fallen down and produced 3 snowstorms that winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Well that lasted one model cycle. A 1-3" still on the table though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Well that lasted one model cycle. A 1-3" still on the table though. Du calme, at least another 24-48 hours to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 FWIW GEFS looks better. Calm yo selves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 0z GEFS range from a suppressed non-event, to a congrats OMA-LSE.Probably the best they’ve looked yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEFS range from a suppressed non-event, to a congrats OMA-LSE. Probably the best they’ve looked yet. . Too much dancing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: Centuries ago, plus anyone could have fallen down and produced 3 snowstorms that winter That Winter a practically clear sky could produce a snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The UK doesn't look any better than the GFS/GDPS. It also still digs the Canadian trough across the border and picks up some of the western energy, which leads to the remaining western energy ejecting out suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts