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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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Just now, Malacka11 said:

Better yet, just ban his dumbass. Like seriously, I truly appreciate the leniency in our subforum but like 75% of the drama in all threads could be resolved if this goober is eliminated

where's the fun in that. This, this is enjoyable content. Not only that, its FREE.

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With the closing off 700/500 waves and open Gulf, there should be a decent amt of convection w this, even in the cold sector. Lapse rates above 500mb are favorable. Also noticing some guidance showing smaller scale ridge-trough-ridge features at the surface which could be indicative of gravity wave formation. Would rather see the sfc low continue to deepen to believe that, but we’ll see. 
 

Also a reminder to all that QPF is one of the most poorly modeled entities. 

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We`ll get a quick break Tuesday and Wednesday before the next wave
of interest zips into the area Wednesday night/Thursday. Guidance
is in pretty good agreement with this next disturbance, all things
considered, and the presence of rather cold air aloft would
support a region of fairly steep mid-level lapse rates with this
feature. Things look cold enough for all snow with this
disturbance, so this is another one we`ll be keeping an eye on.
The good news is this will be quite a bit more starved of moisture
than its predecessor and fast-moving enough to limit residence
time over our area.

I'm going to have to have a chat with Ricky. That is not good news. (next storm, I know)

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

With the closing off 700/500 waves and open Gulf, there should be a decent amt of convection w this, even in the cold sector. Lapse rates above 500mb are favorable. Also noticing some guidance showing smaller scale ridge-trough-ridge features at the surface which could be indicative of gravity wave formation. Would rather see the sfc low continue to deepen to believe that, but we’ll see. 
 

Also a reminder to all that QPF is one of the most poorly modeled entities. 

Thank you

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Damn GFS big jump north. I feel like it may be too warm. It's pushing rain up to I80. But seems like with intense frontogenic forcing and dynamic cooling, it changes over to heavy snow fairly quick. It's heavy snow axis looks similar to Euro now. These north ticks need to stop here though. I'm getting too close for comfort to southern end of heavy band. Ha

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