Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Brutal cutoff for the Peoria folks. Story of our lives. Lol. Forever riding the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I would take this and move it north. Too much biting of one run shifting south on a few models while others staying consistent or still moving north. Fair enough, but they’re all kinda trending toward each other. If you look back 24-48 hours ago, Euro had the heaviest snow in WI while GFS was south of Indy. That drawing was most def not based on one run. I may have short changed IA a bit there due to the limits of what I was drawing with. Could be more E-W oriented as the wave heads NE before being shunted E by the block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Cyclone will be knee deep in snowpack after this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This was the GEM run from 12z on January 29, 2015: The point here is not to predict what will happen this time around, but just to show that operational model(s) can and do sometimes shift in a large way in terms of placement/qpf, even at just a few days out. So, try to relax and just watch the model runs unfold. Whatever will be will be. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: Yep.. That's what I was looking for. Many thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This was the GEM run from 12z on January 29, 2015: The point here is not to predict what will happen this time around, but just to show that operational model(s) can and do sometimes shift in a large way in terms of placement/qpf, even at just a few days out. So, try to relax and just watch the model runs unfold. Whatever will be will be. I feel like today's GEM is better than 2015's GEM though. This season I've actually been seriously considering it's solution more regularly. Not sure if when/they upgraded it relative to past years, but it seems like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Good to see the mean increasing...but it's still under 4". Need to move in the right direction quickly, and eliminate the non-event plumes. Not trying to be a debbie, but hard to shake the fact that a complete non-event is still a possibility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 quick note on the plumes and fwiw, a few of those non-events at ORD are rainers and there are more big dogs at MKE than ORD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 quick note on the plumes and fwiw, a few of those non-events at ORD are rainers and there are more big dogs at MKE than ORDque it up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: quick note on the plumes and fwiw, a few of those non-events at ORD are rainers and there are more big dogs at MKE than ORD So, way too early to be looking at these is what ur saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: there are more big dogs at MKE than ORD We're nowhere near done with the surprises on this one. Plenty of runway left. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: I feel like today's GEM is better than 2015's GEM though. This season I've actually been seriously considering it's solution more regularly. Not sure if when/they upgraded it relative to past years, but it seems like it. Here was the 12z Euro from January 29, 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: que it up. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here was the 12z Euro from January 29, 2015. StormfanaticInd just reported you, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here was the 12z Euro from January 29, 2015. lol fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: So, way too early to be looking at these is what ur saying? i find them personally useful to visualize which clusters of solutions gain favor over a sequence but they aren't much value verbatim for the time being 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Looking at the 12z Euro ensembles, there are a few misses to my south, but about 12 misses to the north. Overall, I am gradually becoming more optimistic. As far as what could go wrong, still definitely much more concerned about a miss north than a miss south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This was the GEM run from 12z on January 29, 2015: The point here is not to predict what will happen this time around, but just to show that operational model(s) can and do sometimes shift in a large way in terms of placement/qpf, even at just a few days out. So, try to relax and just watch the model runs unfold. Whatever will be will be. 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here was the 12z Euro from January 29, 2015. must be getting old... don't remember any of this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I went to the store this morning to beat the rush over the weekend. Officially under a Milk and Bread Watch as far as I'm concerned. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: must be getting old... don't remember any of this. 16.2" fell at ORD 3 days later on February 1. Remember that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: must be getting old... don't remember any of this. welcome to old man status 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: I went to the store this morning to beat the rush over the weekend. Officially under a Milk and Bread Watch as far as I'm concerned. Can't South Bend handle this amount of snow? You aren't South Beach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: must be getting old... don't remember any of this. These blizzard conditions wiped the model mayhem from my memory too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The synoptic pattern for GHD 2 (2015) was not really that similar to this setup. You had a strong vortex over Hudson Bay and ridging in the Southwest, neither of those is true here. Any NAO ridging then was east of Greenland (which also shows how east-based -NAOs are more favorable for big dogs in the Midwest) - here the ridge is over the northwest passages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Can't South Bend handle this amount of snow? You aren't South Beach. Oh, yeah. We'll be fine. We just haven't had a major non-lake effect storm though in about three years. I work in a newsroom and the public is already getting antsy asking stupid questions and trying to compare this to the Blizzard of '78. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: welcome to old man status I remembered the general model debacle from a few days out but I don't remember why it happened. Obviously something changed in the final few days back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 16.2" fell at ORD 3 days later on February 1. Remember that? rings a bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: welcome to old man status getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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