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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

I would take this and move it north. Too much biting of one run shifting south on a few models while others staying consistent or still moving north.

Fair enough, but they’re all kinda trending toward each other. If you look back 24-48 hours ago, Euro had the heaviest snow in WI while GFS was south of Indy. That drawing was most def not based on one run. 
 

I may have short changed IA a bit there due to the limits of what I was drawing with. Could be more E-W oriented as the wave heads NE before being shunted E by the block. 

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This was the GEM run from 12z on January 29, 2015:

 

post-622-0-41348700-1422551051.jpg.6a24df595038151020c3175e5f750278.jpg

 

The point here is not to predict what will happen this time around, but just to show that operational model(s) can and do sometimes shift in a large way in terms of placement/qpf, even at just a few days out.

So, try to relax and just watch the model runs unfold.  Whatever will be will be.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This was the GEM run from 12z on January 29, 2015:

 

post-622-0-41348700-1422551051.jpg.6a24df595038151020c3175e5f750278.jpg

 

The point here is not to predict what will happen this time around, but just to show that operational model(s) can and do sometimes shift in a large way in terms of placement/qpf, even at just a few days out.

So, try to relax and just watch the model runs unfold.  Whatever will be will be.

I feel like today's GEM is better than 2015's GEM though. This season I've actually been seriously considering it's solution more regularly. Not sure if when/they upgraded it relative to past years, but it seems like it.

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3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I feel like today's GEM is better than 2015's GEM though. This season I've actually been seriously considering it's solution more regularly. Not sure if when/they upgraded it relative to past years, but it seems like it.

Here was the 12z Euro from January 29, 2015.

 

post-622-0-68987800-1422555651.jpg.d531458227505192427ddf8c186cb7db.jpg

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Looking at the 12z Euro ensembles, there are a few misses to my south, but about 12 misses to the north.

Overall, I am gradually becoming more optimistic.  As far as what could go wrong, still definitely much more concerned about a miss north than a miss south.

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35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This was the GEM run from 12z on January 29, 2015:

 

post-622-0-41348700-1422551051.jpg.6a24df595038151020c3175e5f750278.jpg

 

The point here is not to predict what will happen this time around, but just to show that operational model(s) can and do sometimes shift in a large way in terms of placement/qpf, even at just a few days out.

So, try to relax and just watch the model runs unfold.  Whatever will be will be.

 

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here was the 12z Euro from January 29, 2015.

 

post-622-0-68987800-1422555651.jpg.d531458227505192427ddf8c186cb7db.jpg

must be getting old... don't remember any of this.

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The synoptic pattern for GHD 2 (2015) was not really that similar to this setup. You had a strong vortex over Hudson Bay and ridging in the Southwest, neither of those is true here. Any NAO ridging then was east of Greenland (which also shows how east-based -NAOs are more favorable for big dogs in the Midwest) - here the ridge is over the northwest passages. 
 

E5BB9713-7268-46CF-9E2B-782D7B73C6BC.gif.af827bd8fcae8d630602ce04192c7fd3.gif

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Can't South Bend handle this amount of snow?  You aren't South Beach.

Oh, yeah. We'll be fine. We just haven't had a major non-lake effect storm though in about three years. I work in a newsroom and the public is already getting antsy asking stupid questions and trying to compare this to the Blizzard of '78. :rolleyes:

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