DaveNay Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Everyone freaking out can put down the paper bags. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk <looks at pitchfork in one hand, torch in the other> 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 49 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see. I would take this and move it north. Too much biting of one run shifting south on a few models while others staying consistent or still moving north. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Honestly if I were you guys in chicago I'd be quite happy rn. The models are quite obviously underdoing QPF and with most of them still having the band basically over the city I wouldn't be surprised if you guys eke out some surprising amounts as things stand right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This storm has some similarities to the GHD storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Lake Michigan is still mild enough that it's actually causing temps to be near freezing for a while near the western shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 37 minutes ago, UMB WX said: Bringing the pitchforks at StormfanaticInd trying to steal snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, mimillman said: Also fwiw, the GEM ensembles are roughly in line with 00z Which means the op is on the southern end of that envelope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: ' Only possible positive I can pull for up here is the orientation of snow band on the weenie maps appears more of a curve to the NE instead of east west. Shrugs and probably not. the case. I can run with that until 0z euro shows Scooters Shit Streak still on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This storm has some similarities to the GHD storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This storm has some similarities to the GHD storm 2015? Sure. 2011? Not a chance in hell. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, andyhb said: 2015? Sure. 2011? Not a chance in hell. 2015 is #4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: 2015 is #4 What were the other 3, I dont recognize them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 37 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Everyone freaking out can put down the paper bags. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. Euro op runs from 24-36 hours ago were showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is only 10-12". Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: What were the other 3, I dont recognize them. No clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Whoa! Just tried to get caught up here and thought I'd accidentally clicked on one of the EC subforums. My only observations for the FWA area is to prepare for a kitchen sink storm. Now back to your regular scheduled model watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 yeah doing good numbers without any real pot stirring on my end 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. Euro op runs from 24-36 hours ago were showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is only 10-12". Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before.There are numerous ENS (both GFS and Euro) that have 10-20”, with a few over 20”.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. Euro op runs from 24-36 hours ago were showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is only 10-12". Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before. With the gulf wide open, I wouldn't be shocked to see widespread double digits somewhere in LOT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: No clue Went and looked at the top 10. 7" and greater were considered winners, less than that losers. A few storms had essentially no data. 1: No data 2: A band of heavy snow fell across portions of northeast Illinois during the evening of the 9th and ended the morning of the 10th. The heaviest amounts fell over northeast Livingston county, western Kankakee county, eastern Will county and extreme southern Cook county. Some snowfall amounts include: Dwight - 6 inches in Livingston county, Kankakee - 5 inches in Kankakee county, Monee Reservoir - 5.5 inches in Will county. and Olympia Fields - 6.1 inches in Cook county. 3: From early morning on February 18th until evening, 5 to 12 inches of snow fell across portions of northern Illinois. Co-op and airport reports indicate that the heaviest snow (12 inches) fell from around Dixon and Rochelle, northeast through the northern suburbs of Chicago. Slightly north of this band, around the Rockford area, totals were in the 8 to 10 inch range. To the south, amounts tapered from 11 inches at O'Hare to 7 inches near Midway and 3 to 4 inches across southern Will county. Winds gusted above 30 mph caused some blowing and drifting of the snow. Some official snowfall reports include: 11.1 inches at O'Hare International Airport, 6.7 inches at Midway Airport, 9.6 inches at Rockford, 12.2 inches in Lake Villa, 12.0 inches in Compton, 10.0 inches in Barrington, 7.0 inches in Aurora, and 5.0 inches at the Weather Service Office in Romeoville. Numerous accidents due to slick road conditions and poor visibility were reported throughout northern Illinois. Air travel was hampered as well, with an estimated 600 flights cancelled at O'Hare International Airport. 4: We know it and love it 5. Looks like an east coast storm 6: A low pressure system passed to the south of Iowa during the day on the 5th. The north edge of the precipitation stretched into the state in the form of the northern edge of the deformation zone. Rain fell initially, however the system became convective. The combination of the convection and the entrainment of dry air into the state led to a fairly quick changed to snow. A narrow band of heavy snow set up across Appanoose, northwest Davis, and Wapello Counties. At the heaviest point, snow fall at the rate of 3 inches per hour. In a band extending from near Centerville to Ottumwa, 6 to 7 inches of snow fall in a three to four hour period. The official snowfall total at the Ottumwa Airport was 7 inches. This was the highest official total, though a few locations picked up a bit more unofficially. 7: Looks like 3-6" for IWX to interior NE. 8: A strong winter storm moved from northeast Texas to southern Indiana to Lake Erie February 21-22, 2010. This system produced light to moderate snow across the region mainly along and south of Highway 30. The highest amounts of 6 to 8 inches were reported in extreme southeast Iowa, extreme northeast Missouri and western Illinois. Elsewhere, 2 to 5 inches of snow fell between Highway 34 and Highway 30, with lesser amounts to the north. The highest amount was near Macomb, Illinois with 8.5 inches, while Memphis, Missouri had 8.0 inches of snow. 9: Low pressure tracked from eastern Oklahoma to northern Arkansas and then into the Ohio Valley on February 24-25, 2011. This storm system spread snow, briefly heavy, across portions of southeast Iowa, western Illinois and extreme northeast Missouri. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches were common in those areas. The highest amount reported was 5.0 inches near Cantril, Iowa in Van Buren county. A trained spotter reported 3.0 inches of snow at Adair. 10: A strong winter storm moved northeast across southern Illinois and northwest Indiana during the evening hours of December 15th and the morning hours of December 16th. This storm produced heavy snow across eastern Illinois with many areas receiving over ten inches of snow. Much of Kankakee County received over 8 inches of snow. Bourbonnais measured 11.1 inches and Herscher measured 10.8 inches. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z EPS Mean.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: With the gulf wide open, I wouldn't be shocked to see widespread double digits somewhere in LOT. Agree. Still think the 12z suite is underdone on QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z EPS Mean... . Tick south but solid nonetheless. This is about all I can hope for I think, which is a huge win in this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Here's the game plan: by 12z tomorrow ish, the models will begin really nailing in the track, which is going to be slightly northwest of what the lastest Euro showed. After that, we can start bumping up the qpf every run, until the desired amount is achieved. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I haven't seen a double-digit snowfall since I lived in Central Illinois in March 2013. If I can just get to 10 with this storm I'll be happy camper. Looks like it's going to be a close call at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z EPS Mean... . Good to know that some individual members are 10"+. But we really need to get rid of the clunker ensemble outcomes...needs to happen ASAP. Because there are so many non-event ensemble members, the mean only shows a 3-5" snowfall over much of the metro for the main show...as there's 1-2" included from the WAA snow on Sunday morning). Ugh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, beavis1729 said: RE: track, agree...but good reason to be disappointed on max amounts. Euro from 36-48 hours ago was showing 20+" Kuchera in far SE WI/far NE IL...and now the max Euro Kuchera in IL/WI is 10-12". Of course the 20"+ may have been unrealistic to begin with...but kind of disappointing that the jackpot in IL/WI (wherever it ends up) has much lower amounts than before. Its been a long struggle outside of February's in Detroit to pull off a bona fide winter storm warning between Chicago and Mke. We have the cold locked in. Lets hope we can hold off the inevitable transfer squash as long as possible and good things will happen in Illinois and Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Newbie question . How/where do we see the spread of QPF from the models? IIRC there is a plot of this somewhere that the mean is generated from.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Good to know that some individual members are 10"+. But we really need to get rid of the clunker ensemble outcomes...needs to happen ASAP. Because there are so many non-event ensemble members, the mean only shows a 3-5" snowfall over much of the metro for the main show...as there's 1-2" included from the WAA snow on Sunday morning). Ugh... There are a few non event members but I would not say "so many". You have to remember that the reason that the heaviest stripe of snow is not crazy on the mean is because the individual members are still all over the place, which includes a few that would totally miss Chicago and Detroit to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Lake Michigan is still mild enough that it's actually causing temps to be near freezing for a while near the western shore. haha I know im starting to get the spring itch when my eyes drawn immediately to the upper 50s/60s trying to poke into southern Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Here's the game plan: by 12z tomorrow ish, the models will begin really nailing in the track, which is going to be slightly northwest of what the lastest Euro showed. After that, we can start bumping up the qpf every run, until the desired amount is achieved. The good ole days of forecasting. now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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