Baum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: The last storm thread @Chicago Storm started did not end well lol. it was memorable. That's the goal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Baum said: it was memorable. That's the goal. The real treasure was never the snow but the friends and shared memories we made along the way 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 For all the dispersion of the EPS suite, the band on the mean ends up in a very similar corridor as the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 "QUICKLY BY A LOW COMING FROM TEXAS, BUT LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS TRACK IS PRESENTLY NOT HIGH, AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT THIS LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH, THREATENING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THROUGHOUT MONDAY." looks like we have a GFS hugger in the LOT office. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 When I look at the op runs, ensembles, overall setup/realistic track window, this is perhaps the best synoptic potential in the LOT cwa in a good 5 years. Perhaps and potential being the key words though as there's still plenty that can go wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: When I look at the op runs, ensembles, overall setup/realistic track window, this is perhaps the best synoptic potential in the LOT cwa in a good 5 years. Perhaps and potential being the key words though as there's still plenty that can go wrong. Be still, my heart 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: When I look at the op runs, ensembles, overall setup/realistic track window, this is perhaps the best synoptic potential in the LOT cwa in a good 5 years. Perhaps and potential being the key words though as there's still plenty that can go wrong. Plus it leaves us plenty of time to line up GHD III 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Not with the block upstairs. Most likely peak amplification will be in the OV area before occlusion. you’re never gonna get it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Can clearly see why the 12z ECMWF and GFS tracks are so wildly different. GFS has the northern vort max much further south, which prevents the southern piece of energy from propagating northeast and picking up gulf moisture. Instead, the southern vort gets sheared out upon ejection from the four corners region. This is not the case on the ECMWF. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Not with the block upstairs. Most likely peak amplification will be in the OV area before occlusion. This isn't going well up into Michigan. Calm down buzz killington. Obviously this was said in jest. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: Can clearly see why the 12z ECMWF and GFS tracks are so wildly different. GFS has the northern vort max much further south, which prevents the southern piece of energy from propagating northeast and picking up gulf moisture. Instead, the southern vort gets sheared out upon ejection from the four corners region. This is not the case on the ECMWF. Indeed. This is also the same reason the GEM is more amped and further north as well. The Ukie is actually not too far off as well, which is why it’s sort of the middle ground between the GEM/Euro and GFS. Should point out the trend with the past few events was for the northern stream to be modeled too far south/potent several days out, only to end up further north/relaxed/less of influence as time went on and in reality. So with that said, I’d be less concerned about a well miss south, and more for a miss just north. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 "QUICKLY BY A LOW COMING FROM TEXAS, BUT LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS TRACK IS PRESENTLY NOT HIGH, AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT THIS LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH, THREATENING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THROUGHOUT MONDAY." looks like we have a GFS hugger in the LOT office. That's one of our newer meteorologists, on a training shift. I'm working tomorrow and Friday on the day shifts. Not sure who will be doing what. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: That's one of our newer meteorologists, on a training shift. I'm working tomorrow and Friday on the day shifts. Not sure who will be doing what. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I notice that DTX always plays things very conservative when they are in the long range and keeps things very vague until closer to the event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: That's one of our newer meteorologists, on a training shift. I'm working tomorrow and Friday on the day shifts. Not sure who will be doing what. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I thought you guys let Alek do a trial AFD for sh*ts and giggles. That said, path of least resistance given the prior runs before the 12Z Euro and Gem today isn't an unreasonable call. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Indeed. This is also the same reason the GEM is more amped and further north as well. The Ukie is actually not too far off as well, which is why it’s sort of the middle ground between the GEM/Euro and GFS. Should point out the trend with the past few events was for the northern stream to be modeled too far south/potent several days out, only to end up further north/relaxed/less of influence as time went on and in reality. So with that said, I’d be less concerned about a well miss south, and more for a miss just north. I'd buy that, a miss *just* north is plausible, but don't think much further north than the 12z Euro OP was advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baum said: I thought you guys let Alek do a trial AFD for sh*ts and giggles. U unlock guest afds at 100k posts 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Indeed. This is also the same reason the GEM is more amped and further north as well. The Ukie is actually not too far off as well, which is why it’s sort of the middle ground between the GEM/Euro and GFS. Should point out the trend with the past few events was for the northern stream to be modeled too far south/potent several days out, only to end up further north/relaxed/less of influence as time went on and in reality. So with that said, I’d be less concerned about a well miss south, and more for a miss just north. Looking into things even further... The GFS also ejects out the whole 1st wave that comes into the West Coast tomorrow night. This 1st wave gets picked up by the northern stream, leading to the further south/potent northern stream in Canada/northern US, effectively suppressing the main ejection for Monday. The Euro/GEM do not eject out the whole 1st wave, instead holding it mostly back in the West...with the 2nd wave then also moving into the West. Ejection occurs as a whole on the Euro/GEM, with the less potent/south northern stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 You know it's legit when the ICON bites. Lock and load this big boy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Looking into things even further... The GFS also ejects out the whole 1st wave that comes into the West Coast tomorrow night. This 1st wave gets picked up by the northern stream, leading to the further south/potent northern stream in Canada/northern US, effectively suppressing the main ejection for Monday. The Euro/GEM do not eject out the whole 1st wave, instead holding it mostly back in the West...with the 2nd wave then also moving into the West. Ejection occurs as a whole on the Euro/GEM, with the less potent/south northern stream.Baby step at 500 mb on the 18z GFS, northern stream slower/not as potent/farther north. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I like where I am sitting on this, I do think it probably won't be as far north as the Euro Op, the Canadian actually had a pretty solid look and would be closer to where I think this ends up. Overall though this has a good shot at hitting a lot of people for their biggest storm of the season to this point. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 21 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: The “marginally cold air” part is not correct in this case. . 21 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: For the first time this season there’s actually going to be a large reservoir of cold air nearby for the multi-wave period in question. . 21 hours ago, IWXwx said: Okay, I understand what you're saying. However, ORD is in a better position than FWA. It still looks marginal to me for mby, at least until the last wave rolls through mid-late next week. 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z EPS Mean... As we discussed last night, I don't think the IWX forecaster was off base when he discussed marginal temps, at least for FWA. I am seriously rooting for a Euro score for all of the posters in Iowa, No IL/ORD (including hoosier) and Detroit. I will enjoy my cold rain/ice/flakes. All of us Indiana posters south of US 30 will have to depend on the trailing wave to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, IWXwx said: As we discussed last night, I don't think the IWX forecaster was off base when he discussed marginal temps, at least for FWA. I am seriously rooting for a Euro score for all of the posters in Iowa, No IL/ORD (including hoosier) and Detroit. I will enjoy my cold rain/ice/flakes. All of us Indiana posters south of US 30 will have to depend on the trailing wave to deliver. Iowa has routinely scored, but, otherwise, agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Something else to watch... there's the possibility of a nice lake response on the western end of Lake Michigan to add to whatever synoptic amounts occur. Not dealing with an extremely cold airmass by any means, but the warmth this winter has kept lake temps elevated. If it works out, the lake enhancement could easily tack on several inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I've got the gut feeling that I-70 area and well to the north will be mostly rain. It's still nice to see this type of setup with ample cold air for once. Feels like the classic winter storms we all love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, Gino27 said: I've got the gut feeling that I-70 area and well to the north will be mostly rain. It's still nice to see this type of setup with ample cold air for once. Feels like the classic winter storms we all love. Yeah this has the traditional nina look to it, Ohio gets the rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Stebo said: I like where I am sitting on this, I do think it probably won't be as far north as the Euro Op, the Canadian actually had a pretty solid look and would be closer to where I think this ends up. Overall though this has a good shot at hitting a lot of people for their biggest storm of the season to this point. Glad to see you on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Glad to see you on board I mean there is always a chance the GFS could be right and the northern stream suppresses everything, but I am hedging by bet that it is a bit too overzealous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah this has the traditional nina look to it, Ohio gets the rain. If I recall correctly, the Northwest portion of Ohio(yes, my backyard) typically stays snow in these set-ups. At least during La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Frog Town said: If I recall correctly, the Northwest portion of Ohio(yes, my backyard) typically stays snow in these set-ups. At least during La Nina. Yeah you and IWX's CWA can win on these as well, see GHD or 99 blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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