Stebo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: 18Z Euro stronger w the northern stream again. Doesn’t go out far enough but would almost certainly end up farther south than the 12z run. Respect the west-based -NAO? EPS Control/mean went back north, there were a few duds though. Interesting how we are spreading out more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Again... It bumped NW. . See probs I mentioned below. You’re taking snapshots that are not accounting for the slower wave. 3” probabilities barely budged but the northern end is lower. So...not really a NW trend is it. Try being more specific with what is trending rather than saying “bump NW” which isn’t really useful to those trying to understand the meteorology of why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Again... It bumped NW. . I'd say its about same spot on the mean, but the cold sector is more generous (more realistic) this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: See probs I mentioned below. You’re taking snapshots that are not accounting for the slower wave. 3” probabilities barely budged but the northern end is lower. So...not really a NW trend is it. Try being more specific with what is trending rather than saying “bump NW” which isn’t really useful to those trying to understand the meteorology of why. Looks slightly NW to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I think the primary implication of "bumped NW" is that it didn't bump south, which is what we're all worried about, and what it seemed like might have been the case at the start of the run. Edit: It does also seem at least a foot or two north west to me too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: See probs I mentioned below. You’re taking snapshots that are not accounting for the slower wave. 3” probabilities barely budged but the northern end is lower. So...not really a NW trend is it. Try being more specific with what is trending rather than saying “bump NW” which isn’t really useful to those trying to understand the meteorology of why. The mean SLP track shifted NW. I mean it's pretty clear here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Looks like a nail biter as usual here. Hoping for a south trend usually doesn't end well unless it's a clipper. I'm on the southern end of most guidance now. Guessing for a near miss to the north. Would be nice to get big snow but as long as I don't get cold rain I will be semi content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'm surprised that LOT is so on board with 6+ . Confidence seems higher than normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: I'm surprised that LOT is so on board with 6+ . Confidence seems higher than normal Certainly rare for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'm surprised that LOT is so on board with 6+ . Confidence seems higher than normalI made the graphic and wasnt trying to convey overly high confidence in those amounts. It's pretty reasonable to say at this juncture that if the ingredients all come together, that a swath of 6" of snow is fairly likely given the forcing and moisture available. I was hoping to make note of the uncertainty by italicizing and underlining possible wording. The shaded areas used are pretty much WPC's Day 5 outlook (dark blue is the darker green 30-50% area and lighter blue is the lighter green 10-30% area). Of course we can see in the spectrum of outcomes, there's still a lower probability completely failure mode in this. We decided that if we're going to ramp up messaging for an event a little farther out, may as well be this one. * If* subsequent trends do support the higher end outcome, we're probably 3 full forecast package issuances away from watch issuance (Friday night/Sat AM midnight shift). Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I made the graphic and wasnt trying to convey overly high confidence in those amounts. It's pretty reasonable to say at this juncture that if the ingredients all come together, that a swath of 6" of snow is fairly likely given the forcing and moisture available. I was hoping to make note of the uncertainty by italicizing and underlining possible wording. Of course we can see in the spectrum of outcomes, there's still a lower probability completely failure mode in this. We decided that if we're going to ramp up messaging for an event a little farther out, may as well be this one. * If* subsequent trends do support the higher end outcome, we're 3 full forecast package issuances away from watch issuance (Friday night/Sat AM midnight shift). Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Thanks for the elaboration. Wasnt trying to argue against it and was more of an observation than anything. Thanks for the expertise and contributions to the forum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Before the 00z runs come in south, let’s everyone take a moment to remember that storms CAN and do trend north routinely inside of 84 hours. As weatherfella can tell you... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Before the 00z runs come in south, let’s everyone take a moment to remember that storms CAN and do trend north routinely inside of 84 hours. As weatherfella can tell you... Did not notice any south trend on the 0z NAM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Thanks for the elaboration. Wasnt trying to argue against it and was more of an observation than anything. Thanks for the expertise and contributions to the forum Oh I didn't think you were, I wanted to provide some clarification since I had done the forecast and made the graphic. I appreciate the feedback and having been a part of our social media and graphics team for a while, we do try to incorporate feedback into improvements and how we convey things. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 52 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Looks like a nail biter as usual here. Hoping for a south trend usually doesn't end well unless it's a clipper. I'm on the southern end of most guidance now. Guessing for a near miss to the north. Would be nice to get big snow but as long as I don't get cold rain I will be semi content. I'd rather live where you are than here, if I had to remain in IL. Galesburg is where I would want to live for the weather bonus Capitol of the state. They get it all and rarely misses them for a season. Severe or winter weather, Galesburg is always close to an epicenter it seems. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, mimillman said: Before the 00z runs come in south, let’s everyone take a moment to remember that storms CAN and do trend north routinely inside of 84 hours. As weatherfella can tell you... A lot of people in NH/lower VT gave up 12/17 but they jacked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: I'd rather live where you are than here, if I had to remain in IL. Galesburg is where I would want to live for the weather bonus Capitol of the state. They get it all and rarely misses them for a season. Severe or winter weather, Galesburg is always close to an epicenter it seems. Dude same! They always get nailed in winter storms and always seem to get severe wx nearby. Peoria on occasion lucks out but overall more often get missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Obviously take it with a grain of salt because it's nam and it's long range but it has a more southerly look to it. Yes I'm grasping for straws here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: I'd rather live where you are than here, if I had to remain in IL. Galesburg is where I would want to live for the weather bonus Capitol of the state. They get it all and rarely misses them for a season. Severe or winter weather, Galesburg is always close to an epicenter it seems. I’d argue DVN or RFD is better. Whatever you do, don’t move to Chicago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Obviously take it with a grain of salt because it's nam and it's long range but it has a more southerly look to it. Yes I'm grasping for straws here. I thought it just was way slower. But to me the confluence was giving way and the system was coming similar ultimately to a euroesque look.But I looked at it on my phone so I could have misinterpreted pretty easily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: I’d argue DVN or RFD is better. Whatever you do, don’t move to Chicago DVN for sure. Always get tornado warnings near by. Big wind events. Often in the heavy snow axis. Rockford isn't bad either. N IL lucks out a lot. 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thought it just was way slower. But to me the confluence was giving way and the system was coming similar ultimately to a euroesque look.But I looked at it on my phone so I could have misinterpreted pretty easily. I didn't do an in depth look. Just a quick glance at the sfc map. So definitely could be wrong myself. I'm partly wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The jet structure on the clown range NAM looked really nice. I’d venture to say other than slowing things down that would end up being a walloping beyond the NAM range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 0z RGEM would likely end up a bit north of where 12z GEM was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The jet structure on the clown range NAM looked really nice. I’d venture to say other than slowing things down that would end up being a walloping beyond the NAM range.Appreciate your contributions on here while you're out in the area! Always enjoy your posts and those of other knowledgeable posters when lurking on the NE threads.@OceanStWx should pay us a visit on this thread if it's not too busy over there haha. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 0z GFS will come with a decent jump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Things happening on the GFS lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS with a big jump north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Malacka11 said: Things happening on the GFS lol Understatement of the day. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Precip field looks odd on the GFS. Bouncing all over the place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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