Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS side to side to 12z Euro is pretty damn close to identical.. Might cave here on the 18z run. GFS actually bumped SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baum said: negative vibes. It's the chase and the hope that's all part of it. It's the end result for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: GFS actually bumped SE. . The 18z GFS is gross. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Biggest event of the season from the WAA snows. And that's before the bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Very nice Long Term AFD from NWS Chicago about the winter storm risk for this weekend into next week. @RCNYILWX 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Yeah, but who cares about a 18z run??? Not me, ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: The 18z GFS is gross. Garbage model, especially this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Quote @RCNYILWX "Stay tuned for latest updates, in particular for late Sunday night- Monday night, which may have the ingredients to potentially make it largest and most impactful event in at least a couple winters, if everything comes together." Love your AFD details, they are the highlight of my 4 PM each day when a potential storm is out there. All I want is a storm with nothing liquid falling from the sky, it's a simple wish. Looking forward to the future updates. You rock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: me watching the euro roll out after the ukie comes in hot Elizabeth Banks is fantastic on Press Your Luck, and yeah that was a brutal whammy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 GEFS are a tick north at the start of the event if you squint your eyes, then roughly unchanged as it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I’ll be missed to the north, but hey I-80 peeps enjoy dat thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Save a horse 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I just don’t see the euro having been pretty consistent with only minor shifts for 2 days being wrong here. I’ve been through this nonsense with the GFS in every major system over the past 15 years it seems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: I just don’t see the euro having been pretty consistent with only minor shifts for 2 days being wrong here. I’ve been through this nonsense with the GFS in every major system over the past 15 years it seems. Oh you'd be surprised 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: I just don’t see the euro having been pretty consistent with only minor shifts for 2 days being wrong here. I’ve been through this nonsense with the GFS in every major system over the past 15 years it seems. I hope you're right. This storm could really be something if everything goes right just for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Patiently watching this one unfold. Seasonal trends for the past two years warn me it still could shear out into a pile of garbage. Worst case scenario would be the precip associated with the wave on Saturday night missing north into Wisconsin, then the main low Sunday>Monday being suppressed with little wintry precip even downstate. Liking where I sit, but we've really been through the ringer with events not coming together the past two years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, tuanis said: Patiently watching this one unfold. Seasonal trends for the past two years warn me it still could shear out into a pile of garbage. Worst case scenario would be the precip associated with the wave on Saturday night missing north into Wisconsin, then the main low Sunday>Monday being suppressed with little wintry precip even downstate. Liking where I sit, but we've really been through the ringer with events not coming together the past two years. Couldn't agree more. Hard not to see that nightmare scenario work out and we get completely shafted. Nerve-wracking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Couldn't agree more. Hard not to see that nightmare scenario work out and we get completely shafted. Nerve-wracking. Pattern looks sloppy behind this thing, too. Hope it works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: Oh you'd be surprised Yeah it's been a tough few years with medium range mirages. That being said, gotta feel optimistic about this being a good one, if not here then nearby. Also, when we have this model lineup with the foreign runs against the NAM/GFS, it sure seems like the foreign models tend to do better more often than not. That should be cause for optimism for those around Chicagoland and a bit north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I just don’t see the euro having been pretty consistent with only minor shifts for 2 days being wrong here. I’ve been through this nonsense with the GFS in every major system over the past 15 years it seems. I can name at least three systems just this winter that were pegged as big dogs on the Euro (even a day or two out!) for NE Indiana only to fizzle into sloppy, wet, utterly forgettable snow showers. Of course, I live in Fort Wayne, IN, a place where storms come to die a swift and painless death. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah it's been a tough few years with medium range mirages. That being said, gotta feel optimistic about this being a good one, if not here then nearby. Also, when we have this model lineup with the foreign runs against the NAM/GFS, it sure seems like the foreign models tend to do better more often than not. That should be cause for optimism for those around Chicagoland and a bit north. mmm. I don't disagree, but then again I've been irrationally bullish this event for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 High ratio 3-6” of WAA snow across much of Minnesota on Saturday. Let’s see how that unfolds as it could be a precursor to this storms evolution. After last weeks burn I’m not putting much faith in the medium term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Nice to come home at the end of the day and see 6 new pages to read in a storm thread, been awhile! Don't have much to add since everything's been pointed out but I'm happy to see the Euro/UK on the same page. GFS like an old drunk still trying to perform like it did in the past, but just flails around miserably lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: High ratio 3-6” of WAA snow across much of Minnesota on Saturday. Let’s see how that unfolds as it could be a precursor to this storms evolution. After last weeks burn I’m not putting much faith in the medium term. Airmass was marginal with the last one. You'll be fine this go around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, tuanis said: Patiently watching this one unfold. Seasonal trends for the past two years warn me it still could shear out into a pile of garbage. Worst case scenario would be the precip associated with the wave on Saturday night missing north into Wisconsin, then the main low Sunday>Monday being suppressed with little wintry precip even downstate. Liking where I sit, but we've really been through the ringer with events not coming together the past two years. ban. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 29 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: I can name at least three systems just this winter that were pegged as big dogs on the Euro (even a day or two out!), only to fizzle into sloppy, wet, utterly forgettable snow showers. Of course, I live in Fort Wayne, IN, a place where storms come to die a swift and painless death. Please refresh my memory lol because I do not remember any big storms 2 days out that fizzled. Last Winter I do remember that the November 11th snowstorm over performed, the January 18th thump performed as expected and I do not remember what was forecast for the February 26th snow although looks like that was your last legit big dog mirage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Please refresh my memory lol because I do not remember any big storms 2 days out that fizzled. Last Winter I do remember that the November 11th snowstorm over performed, the January 18th thump performed as expected and I do not remember what was forecast for the February 26th snow although looks like that was your last legit big dog mirage. Well, the most recent one was the ice event on New Year's Day. Euro consistently had 0.50"+ of ice accretion not only days ahead of the event, but on the day itself! Then the December 2nd event where the Euro painted a stripe of 7"+ for Northern Indiana about a day or two leading up to the event. We ended with about an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Good ol' Goofus model. 18z run is like what storm. Lololololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Seems like central Indiana is in freezing rain zone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: Well, the most recent one was the ice event on New Year's Day. Euro consistently had 0.50"+ of ice accretion not only days ahead of the event, but on the day itself! Then the December 2nd event where the Euro painted a stripe of 7"+ for Northern Indiana about a day or two leading up to the event. We ended with about an inch. I do remember the ice failing, I thought you were just talking about snow. As for December 2nd are you thinking of the storm that went to Eastern Ohio and hit the Eastern part of the sub? Or something different? That pounded Cleveland with almost 10" and was actually my biggest snow of the season so far with 4.3" on the Western edge. Of course model placement always sucks more than a few days out lol. Hopefully this one delivers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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