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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


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Re:  lake enhancement on the western side of Lake Michigan

Typically in these setups, you sort of take it for granted that there will be enhancement that starts on the western shore of WI/IL and then swings into Indiana and perhaps Michigan as the low level flow backs as the storm departs.  But in this case, that is actually not being modeled.  The low level flow does not back, which would mean that the lake enhancement/effect could keep going in some form on the IL/WI side even after the storm departs, though likely in diminishing intensity as the synoptic support is lost.

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3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

As currently modeled there is almost no support for true lake effect snow in IL or IN. Coldest low level temps stay well N in WI. 

It could be more of an enhanced vs pure lake effect thing, as moisture/inversion heights come down when the system departs.  Whatever you want to call it, I think it could result in a few to several inches more snow near the lake compared to inland areas of IL/WI.

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

What does this mean in translation lol? (I cant believe I'm asking someone to extrapolate the nam :wacko:)

It would probably have a low track fairly similar to the 12z GFS. My opinion is that the GFS/NAM shift towards a ECM/GEM/UKMET/EPS look as we move forward.

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