Jan 24-26th Something Potential

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

That Ukie depiction of a 997 mb low just east of KC at hour 72 to 1000 mb near Cincy at hour 78 seems a bit far fetched even if you account for the good probability of the system occluding and weakening eastward. The UK has been very unstable leading up to this system so its hard to put a ton of stock into it for the forecast, even though (weenie goggles on) it is a nice run for the outcome we're hoping for.

However, if we take the 00z Tuesday position off to the east of KC as a perfect prog, it becomes clear that the occlusion process aided by the confluence and shearing of the wave saves us from mixing or a rainer. That surface low position has me concerned anyway if it gets more guidance support for mixing getting farther north than the model depicts explicitly.

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The struggle is that the models keep pulling a mcs ahead which the models want to attach the main low with it or jump the lowest pressure to that. I just dont buy a mcs induced low pulling everything ahead. Can it happen sure, will it though, I'm betting no. The confluence will be an issue but I feel like we had this same issue with GHD 2.0 and that completely ended up being a bad model output. I need to go back and read that thread to confirm but I definitely feel like that was the same issue being shown and it ended up being wrong as possible.

[Malacka11]

21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I almost think we get more Snow having the energy sheared apart. It just sits over us and snows for 6 hours on this run 

Ramping up in terms of qpf, only thing I care about low pressure strength for is windspeed.

[Chicago Storm]

part 2...