kevlon62 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Back to 80% snow chance on the P&C here in the northern tier. Tag team bringin' it back.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Seems like model spread is getting worse instead of honing in. A global vs hi res show down. But I do think hi res models are too south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Seems like model spread is getting worse instead of honing in. A global vs hi res show down. But I do think hi res models are too south Yeah, not sure how I feel about this run.. mixed I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I would love to read RC's thoughts on the GFS boundary layer warming in the LOT cwa with a weakening surface low taking that track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Could be some convective feedback on this run pulling the low a little bit too far NW into the heavy banding on the NW quadrant. Also might just be representative of the low becoming vertically stacked as the cyclone approaches the occlusion phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 What's behind it is starting to look interesting as wellDefinitely suppressed south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 QPF is paltry and too lowI don’t believe so, given the system peaks out west. It would be steadily trending down with eastward extent.Some ENS have shown this, and it’s a clear trend for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: I don’t believe so, given the system peaks out west. It would be steadily trending down with eastward extent. Some ENS have shown this, and it’s a clear trend for now. . Sold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I would love to read RC's thoughts on the GFS boundary layer warming in the LOT cwa with a weakening surface low taking that track. I’m not RC but 925s suggests no BL issues within 50 miles of Chicago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 0z GEM following the trend of bumping NW early on and peaking west, then shearing steadily east. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 As someone south of I-80 how concerned should the general area be about the ice amounts if solutions like those verify? I know it doesn't take much to cause problems.I think it's a bit of a wait and see until we have an even better idea on exact surface low track and can see signs of where things are pointing toward regarding position and magnitude of warm nose aloft. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GEFS look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEM following the trend of bumping NW early on and peaking west, then shearing steadily east. . This won’t last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEM following the trend of bumping NW early on and peaking west, then shearing steadily east. . Regarding timing. Is the slower solution the reason for the peak out west then the shear? If we had the exact same setup, but quicker system, would we see the peak further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEM following the trend of bumping NW early on and peaking west, then shearing steadily east. Has a big, moisture-laden storm lifting up toward Iowa, but then hits a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Two main reasons why the sfc low begins to weaken as it moves east, in my opinion: 1) H5 vort max peaks in strength over the S Plains states 2) Vort max begins to elongate/stretch/weaken as it becomes under the influence of the Quebec confluence zone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I would love to read RC's thoughts on the GFS boundary layer warming in the LOT cwa with a weakening surface low taking that track.I don't think even this version of the GFS has a great handle on boundary layer processes. My conceptual model is that unless the surface low tracks into our CWA, the strengthening northeast flow from lower dewpoint air to the east and northeast plus evaporative cooling as precip starts is going to make it tough to warm effectively. If anything, the later precip start could allow for maybe slightly more BL warming than if precip were starting earlier, but on the other hand, gonna be socked in with lowering and thickening overcast. The GFS is hard to trust in properly handling evaporative cooling in the boundary layer. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 hours ago, hlcater said: I dont think I've seen an output like the 18z euro for this area inside of FH100 maybe ever. If I have, it's been since GHDII, but I think that only spit out 10-12" out this way with higher numbers east. Fridge caliber run Current Euro seems a bit more generous with snowfall than it used to be. As for GHD-2 here is a h54 map at 10:1 and it looks beefy for Chicago. That's about the time-frame things really began to gel. 48h GFS pumped out the greatest totals on a map for my region since I've lived here ('02). And to clarify, I mean totals that were realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Regarding timing. Is the slower solution the reason for the peak out west then the shear? If we had the exact same setup, but quicker system, would we see the peak further east?Not necessarily, due to the other moving pieces in this case. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Current Euro seems a bit more generous with snowfall than it used to be. As for GHD-2 here is a h54 map at 10:1 and it looks beefy for Chicago. That's about the time-frame things really began to gel. 48h GFS pumped out the greatest totals on a map for my region since I've lived here ('02). And to clarify, I mean totals that were realistic. The more I see maps from that event vs this one, the less I feel they’ll even compare. Nevertheless, this will be good one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: The more I see maps from that event vs this one, the less I feel they’ll even compare. Nevertheless, this will be good one Maybe, but the point is that at this point during GHDII Chicagoans were sad about a miss south. There's definitely time to beef this baby up... Maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: The more I see maps from that event vs this one, the less I feel they’ll even compare. Nevertheless, this will be good one Agree. Those were total weenie porn for our region. Still liking this potential. Just need to lose the sh*ts the bed east trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 0z GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEM . If we miss this to the south, it better be Hoosier who jackpots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEM . Easily the most aggressive model with the shearing of the wave right now. No other model is really even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Two main reasons why the sfc low begins to weaken as it moves east, in my opinion: 1) H5 vort max peaks in strength over the S Plains states 2) Vort max begins to elongate/stretch/weaken as it becomes under the influence of the Quebec confluence zoneVery valid points you make aside, I'm struggling to come around to the idea that the precip shield of a well developed mid latitude cyclone is going to be that bullied by confluence from the north when the system had already established an expansive moderate to heavy precip shield. I think that it would be a more gradual process.An event that comes to my mind from growing up in NY is the Feb 5-6 2010 mid atlantic "snowmageddon" blizzard. That was probably the strongest west based -NAO on record amidst a record prolonged -AO. The confluence over the NYC metro was true buzzsaw stuff on the north edge. But yet the system itself didn't get shredded apart, it just led to one of the most extreme north side gradients you'll ever see (~30" in PHL and T at KNYC). As a snowlover, it was a nightmare scenario. But I think I go back to it because I want to believe a model like the GEM is depicting too rapid of destructive interference on the system. Itll happen eventually but I'd think longitude of my area has more wiggle room than points east. It's like a hurricane making landfall, it loses its heat source and eventually the whole system winds down but the precip doesn't fall apart immediately.If we're talking unimpeded Gulf trajectories, a well developed trowal and intense low and mid level f-gen into Iowa at our latitude, is the precip shield all of a sudden gonna dance southeast because of confluence? I'll end my rambling but that's my thought process on this. I buy the weakening eastward of the synoptic system because it makes sense but not such a rapid modulation of the precip swath. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEM . Compared to yesterdays: Loaded more west but keeps a more southern track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 UK well north, but also has the same problem as other models for areas farther east... although not nearly as bad as the GDPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Easily the most aggressive model with the shearing of the wave right now. No other model is really even close.Yes, what I'm trying to convey below your post, but you in so many less words lol. Putting trust in the ECMWF because it's been the most consistent doesn't guarantee anything to the eventual outcome, but I think it being more stable and well within its ensemble envelope is useful confidence building information for the forecast process. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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