michaelmantis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:26 PM, StormChaser4Life said: #stopthenorthshift. Starting this now. Haha Expand Awesome... ;-) Hopefully cooler heads prevail and everyone chills out on the track for 24ish hours until this thing becomes more clear... Whole bunch of people are potentially in the money, we all have bingo cards with 4 in a row, just waiting on that 5th number. Some will win, someone will lose. Give me 2 inches of totally frozen precip vs all the mess storms we've had in N IL thus far and I'm a happy man. Happy Friday everyone! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:14 PM, ChiTownSnow said: Just yesterday we were all shaming the 18z GFS like it was the red headed stepchild of the GFS family Expand At the time it was good, but this is how the GFS has been, bad until the storm gets close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 A little skeptical of the model depictions that have it getting above freezing over 100 miles north of the surface low track (besides any possible marine influences), especially lacking an obnoxiously warm layer aloft that far north. Still have time to hone in on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Free angrysummons 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:24 PM, michsnowfreak said: Last 6"+ snowstorm Detroit- Jan 18, 2020 - Chicago- Nov 26, 2018 Last 8"+ snowstorm Detroit- Nov 11, 2019 - Chicago- Nov 26, 2018 Last 10"+ snowstorm Detroit- Feb 9, 2018 - Chicago- Nov 21, 2015 Last 12"+ snowstorm Detroit- Feb 1, 2015 - Chicago- Feb 1, 2015 Expand Wow, Chicago hasn’t had a 6” storm in over 2 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:46 PM, RobertSul said: Wow, Chicago hasn’t had a 6” storm in over 2 years? Expand At least not officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:46 PM, RobertSul said: Wow, Chicago hasn’t had a 6” storm in over 2 years? Expand Lets see if they can get their 3rd 20"ish storm in 10 yrs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:58 PM, UMB WX said: Lets see if they can get their 3rd 20"ish storm in 10 yrs. Expand Lowkey counting on it, it just has that vibe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:59 PM, Malacka11 said: Lowkey counting on it, it just has that vibe. Expand It sure does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:22 PM, Chicago Storm said: 18z GEFS Mean... . Expand ding ding ding...regardless of where the exact swath of heavy snow sets up, there are fewer clunker members than before. Not completely eliminated, but progress. And the map is 10:1 ratios. If the 18z and 0z Euro ensembles follow suit, I think we're in business. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Hmmmmm.... I could be wrong 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Snow:liquid ratios probably won’t be spectacular given the DGZ is only 100mb deep, strong winds from 700 to the surface and a temp profile flirting w the freezing mark, at least from IL on east. I’d say average 8-12:1. Another reminder that QPF is poorly modeled and often too high (w some exceptions....NAM cold sector for instance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:43 PM, A-L-E-K said: Free angrysummons Expand Right price, lord knows no one is going to pay for him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 11:33 PM, Stebo said: Right price, lord knows no one is going to pay for him. Expand out of all the threads to get banned in, it's a storm thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Separately, the consistency for west side lake enhancement remains no matter the model shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 10:59 PM, Malacka11 said: Lowkey counting on it, it just has that vibe. Expand On 1/22/2021 at 11:01 PM, UMB WX said: It sure does. Expand As an optimistic person, I love to see the optimism! However, I would probably never ever “count on” a snowstorm that’s not in the northeast dumping 20(+) inches of snow. I wasn’t even confident that GHD 1 was going to verify to the kinda-sorta way it did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z GEM bumped NW. However, it still peaks out west across MO/IA, before steadily/quickly shearing out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z Euro is going to bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Will 0z runs have a full sampling of the system? Also anyone who has 18z gem or euro maps you should share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:08 AM, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro is going to bump north. Expand Similar to the GFS, the Euro is raining where the UKMET and NAM have their main snowfall axis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 So currently it is the NAM/UKMET vs. GFS/Euro, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro with a great run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 These 00z runs about to be hella fun tonight. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:09 AM, StormChaser4Life said: Will 0z runs have a full sampling of the system? Also anyone who has 18z gem or euro maps you should share Expand It won’t be fully onshore until Sunday morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z Euro has the low pressure center paralleling Interstate 71 in Central Ohio by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro has 35-40mph winds later Monday, with 45kt+ at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 fantastic euro run but it can stop moving north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z Euro. Still snowing from E IA into MI.. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 12:20 AM, Chicago Storm said: Euro has 35-40mph winds later Monday, with 45kt+ at 925mb. Expand I think we will be pushing blizzard criteria in some areas, even if the ratios and thus blowing and drifting are held in check a little. There's a signal for a period of heavy rates, so even if the blowing is a bit muted, the rates may be able to do a lot of the work to get down toward/under 1/4 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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