andyhb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Exactly. Additionally...In an alternate universe where the storm system was suppressed far enough south where IND ended up in the heart of the snow swath, it would be a sub-par event. This. That would mean there's barely a shortwave left due to confluence from the ULL/TPV and the SE ridge, there would barely be a "brunt". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect. Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion. Delta T would probably improve after that time, though 850s don't ever get too cold on the GFS. I'll say that the GFS has the lake signal on qpf plots, and it notoriously underdoes lake precip since it is a lower res model. That being said, there's a lot to sort out with the synoptic details yet before we can be too confident in its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Only change on 12z Euro through 36hrs is that the northern stream lobe is a bit further east. Everything else, including heights in ahead of southern trough, are unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: That's fresh coming from you, but I agree, there's no reason to continue attacking posters simply because you disagree with their thoughts. Sorry fella, but I can't recall the last time I've attacked a poster for an opinion. But i do take exception with whining. So now I'll have to sic stebo and chicago storm on you. On to the ball kick from the 12Z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Bringing the pitchforks at StormfanaticInd trying to steal snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 35 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Without access to ensemble data from the UK, we don't know where the operational falls within the spread of its own ensemble system. The only more consistent forecast system has been the ECMWF/EPS. That said, while GFS operational has been very inconsistent, the overall suite has trended north the past several cycles, especially on the 12z GEFS. The UKMET is concerning in that it's a possible scenario that can't yet be ruled out. The 12z ECMWF/EPS are the big key to this. If there aren't big changes from the 06z, I'd consider the UK a lower probability southern outlier like the NAM. Edit: And I'd like to restate from yesterday, given antecedent pattern for this event, including initially pretty marginal thermals, I feel confident in saying we wouldnt even be in the game in most of northern IL without the NAO block. Maybe a more east based block could modulate enough and still keep us in the snow threat zone, but with a positive NAO, I don't see how Alek wouldn't be posting the Eurythmics video. For sure. If the euro holds serve, you cannot discount the consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Too much petty arguing and wishcasting. Knock it off. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z Euro might bump SE. Northern stream lobe is a bit more favorable than 0z run...However, heights are a bit lower ahead of southern trough, and it is slower and more positive tilt prior to ejection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z Euro might bump SE. Northern stream lobe is a bit more favorable than 0z run...However, heights are a bit lower ahead of southern trough, and it is slower and more positive tilt prior to ejection. Definitely looks SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z Euro might bump SE. Northern stream lobe is a bit more favorable than 0z run...However, heights are a bit lower ahead of southern trough, and it is slower and more positive tilt prior to ejection. Yep agree, SLP also further south. Don't think it'll be dramatic, but not friendly trends. Luckily, still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I’ll I have to add is...Boiler Up! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Yep agree, SLP also further south The it jumps hard NW from 72-78. Not as bad as I thought it was going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Also, is the northern lobe still over the data void region? Trying to gauge how many more swings in the setup we can expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: The it jumps hard NW from 72-78. Not as bad as I thought it was going. Slower timing makes it look worse than it is. In any case, a bump SE is a bump SE. It's actually a bump NW from the 0z run, just a bump SE from the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Held serve. Toss uncle. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'm gassed. Only about 24 more model runs. Do think Purdue's map is the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Slower timing makes it look worse than it is. In any case, a bump SE is a bump SE. It's actually a bump NW from the 0z run, just a bump SE from the 6z run. Its actually going to be a much better snow run for N IL than it appears, based on low placement. Throwing snow wayyyy back west after it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Slower timing makes it look worse than it is. In any case, a bump SE is a bump SE. It's actually a bump NW from the 0z run, just a bump SE from the 6z run. And indeed that's how it will continue. Bump SE of 6z run and bump NW of 0z run. So call it even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 ' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro has this dying as it heads east. Really shears out after peaking in the IA/W IL area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I am deff not upset at a 4-8" storm from Chicago to Detroit at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Brutal cutoff for the Peoria folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, ILSNOW said: ' Hard to bet against a storm slamming Iowa this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 It honestly looks like in general, models are struggling with the positioning of center SLP. Look at what the GEM does between hours 72 and 84 with surface low placement. Hard to know at this point which placement is correct, but I continue to think this is ours and am not overly concerned. I would like to see south trends at least pause on the 00z, if not start moving back north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: Toss uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Everyone freaking out can put down the paper bags. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Everyone freaking out can put down the paper bags. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk until 00Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Also fwiw, the GEM ensembles are roughly in line with 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Definitely looks SE. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts