mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, McHenrySnow said: I'm not sure what your problem is, but yes, the Ukie is another strike against the far northern tier counties. What was the GFS? You were absent as that rolled out and only reappear to highlight runs that support this wall theory of yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK is going to be south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Next 24 hrs of model crunching is what we live for.. Last night I Text Melted out my raging hate of this storm to Weenie Nick in Wauwatosa. What a cleansing week its been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: What was the GFS? You were absent as that rolled out and only reappear to highlight runs that support this wall theory of yours. I don't recall the GFS looking that great for the northern tier counties either. I have a job so I can't constantly follow your posts, forgive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, McHenrySnow said: I don't recall the GFS looking that great for the northern tier counties either. I have a job so I can't constantly follow your posts, forgive me. I have a job but I can multi-task Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Like I said last night you have to respect the block 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: I don't recall the GFS looking that great for the northern tier counties either. I have a job so I can't constantly follow your posts, forgive me. I'm going to mute this thread until the 4 PM forecast and AFD updates as the roller coaster of the snow maps where I'm at (N IL) is just too much! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 you’re still not in the game, champ.. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This storm is not done trending south folks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I have a job but I can multi-task 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 19 hours ago, mimillman said: GFS won't cave until within 72 hours. In that time Alek will call a bust, McHenrySnow will claim miss south 3 more times, and StormfanaticInd will be given false hope. 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Like I said last night you have to respect the block 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Without access to ensemble data from the UK, we don't know where the operational falls within the spread of its own ensemble system. The only more consistent forecast system has been the ECMWF/EPS. That said, while GFS operational has been very inconsistent, the overall suite has trended north the past several cycles, especially on the 12z GEFS. The UKMET is concerning in that it's a possible scenario that can't yet be ruled out. The 12z ECMWF/EPS are the big key to this. If there aren't big changes from the 06z, I'd consider the UK a lower probability southern outlier like the NAM. Edit: And I'd like to restate from yesterday, given antecedent pattern for this event, including initially pretty marginal thermals, I feel confident in saying we wouldnt even be in the game in most of northern IL without the NAO block. Maybe a more east based block could modulate enough and still keep us in the snow threat zone, but with a positive NAO, I don't see how Alek wouldn't be posting the Eurythmics video. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I don't see what the huge fuss is about. Some of you lot have been in this game since before I was born, so I'd expect everyone to understand that at this juncture, you'd practically WANT the models to shift away from you a little bit. We're just under four days out right now; that's plenty of time for this storm to pivot way the hell back north. Personally, I love where I sit in DuPage but I wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow shifts back north of me a few runs from now. Everyone just be polite, this may be our only shot at having a good storm thread this season so don't goof it up by being sour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Malacka11 said: I don't see what the huge fuss is about. Some of you lot have been in this game since before I was born, so I'd expect everyone to understand that at this juncture, you'd practically WANT the models to shift away from you a little bit. We're just under four days out right now; that's plenty of time for this storm to pivot way the hell back north. Personally, I love where I sit in DuPage but I wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow shifts back north of me a few runs from now. Everyone just be polite, this may be our only shot at having a good storm thread this season so don't goof it up by being sour. This. It could be in central IL by 00z tonight and the main weenie band band could still end up near the IL/WI border. Have seen that happen many times before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 FWIW the NAM at 84 is south. Not feeling especially optimistic about my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I don't see what the huge fuss is about. Some of you lot have been in this game since before I was born, so I'd expect everyone to understand that at this juncture, you'd practically WANT the models to shift away from you a little bit. We're just under four days out right now; that's plenty of time for this storm to pivot way the hell back north. Personally, I love where I sit in DuPage but I wouldn't be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow shifts back north of me a few runs from now. Everyone just be polite, this may be our only shot at having a good storm thread this season so don't goof it up by being sour. agreed. Couple of newbies got loose from pre school. Best not to engage. As I said two days ago...going to be a long slog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: you’re still not in the game, champ. . Every Sub-Forum needs a ,USCAPEWEATHERAF. Understandably - Everybody wants a piece of this storm. From Saukville to Indy. Sucks to be those two ATM. Detroit Duster can still save Indy. Saukville is gasping for air but a shipment of easterly dry air is due to arrive.. gonna get good in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Baum said: agreed. Couple of newbies got loose from pre school. Best not to engage. As I said two days ago...going to be a long slog. That's fresh coming from you, but I agree, there's no reason to continue attacking posters simply because you disagree with their thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This thread is a ****ing trainwreck right now. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see. Agreed, though slightly further north. Chicago is definitely still in this, imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: This thread is a ****ing trainwreck right now. Just wait until the 12z Euro comes out Still not ready to bite on this one yet, but I'm certainly along for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: Agreed, though slightly further north. Chicago is definitely still in this, imo. For sure, a swath about that width either side is still in the game. Just where I have the higher confidence for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: That's fresh coming from you, but I agree, there's no reason to continue attacking posters simply because you disagree with their thoughts. C’mon man. That's a stretch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This storm is not done trending south folks I don't really see how one can establish a "trend" when models keep flip-flopping back and forth, nor can I see a solution where Indianapolis gets the brunt of this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Based on 24 hour trends and 12Z guidance, I'd feel most comfortable in the area below for the swath of heaviest snow. If the block suppresses it any more, you can forget about any lake enhancement in IL. Some hints of colder air Monday night - Tuesday w/ a favorable fetch for true lake effect, but we'll see. I agree with you that further south solutions are less prone to lake enhancement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Cmon guys.. we finally have a storm to track.. Let's not ruin the fun 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: I don't really see how one can establish a "trend" when models keep flip-flopping back and forth, nor can I see a solution where Indianapolis gets the brunt of this. Exactly. Additionally...In an alternate universe where the storm system was suppressed far enough south where IND ended up in the heart of the snow swath, it would be a sub-par event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 On 1/20/2021 at 7:44 PM, Stebo said: Yeah this has the traditional nina look to it, Ohio gets the rain. Lol Bold prediction there...Ohio is a big state so I'm sure somewhere in Ohio will see rain.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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