Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 GEFS are going to be epic. Similar SLP placement but more QPFNice bump NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 LE anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 LE anyone?can’t happen. i’ve been told it’s way too marginal. that’s not fully LE in that image though obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Clearly the writing is on the wall for northern LOT counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: can’t happen. i’ve been told it’s way too marginal. . Poor Purdue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: can’t happen. i’ve been told it’s way too marginal. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: LE anyone? Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect. Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: Poor Purdue How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, purduewx80 said: Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect. Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion. When I say LE, I'm referring to lake enhancement. And I'll buy your 1" and rebid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, purduewx80 said: Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect. Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion. drag 'em 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: How so? Joe says your LE thoughts are lol and can’t wait for GFS to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: Joe says your LE thoughts are lol and can’t wait for GFS to verify I don't know who Joe is, but if anyone on here can provide a scientific, meteorological analysis of how dendritic snow growth would occur with marginal lake effect parameters, I'd be happy to listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Highly unfavorable for lake effect if you assume the GEFS temp profile is anywhere near the GFS Monday evening. You'd want to see at least -10C between the surface and 850 mb, and it's showing about -5C at the coldest. That's a delta T of about 10C, usually want 15C+ for true lake effect. Lake enhancement due to low level convergence could maybe produce an additional inch lakeside, in my scientific opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 It seems some models that keep this further south, are weakening the low rather quickly, thus the more east track vs NE once it gets to indiana. Is it weakening due to the interaction with the northern confluence, not allowing the low to track where it wants, or is it just maxing out quickly due to the overall lack of strength of the low origin? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Joe says your LE thoughts are lol and can’t wait for GFS to verify **** that guy, he’s never right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I’d lock the GFS H7 look. That’s a Chicago shellacking! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Environment Canadas forecast has tossed any snow for GTA. Im still thinking we might be able to squeeze a 1-2" snowfall and go into the cold week with at least something on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: **** that guy, he’s never right. Sometimes you can reel in an overperformer being on the north fringes in this kind of setup. LE and Light to moderate snows for hrs if you are in that sweet spot pivot pint. The lake here could def come in to play for Geos and even Kenosha. This storm would be bad ass with a few very minor tweaks. Even as modeled now this is a great storm south of the border. I'll miss the epic pictures from Alek's Skyscraper cozy office. Days of Yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z UK is going to be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK is going to be south. To say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK is going to be south. we don't care. we're riding the GFS now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Yes the 12z GEM was not great, weaker SLP and further south. We know this song and dance, by this point at this range you should be comfortable with 150 mile shifts in either direction. It's normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK is going to be south. Canada low jumped south from the 00z run, so our system also jumped south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 like was mentioned yesterday, RFD always does reasonably well, I feel like I get lucky more than my fair share. feeling okay with trends being in lot northern tier, although I do think biggest totals will be between I88 and I80. So with that I need to boost my snowpack. Laid down a nice manmade base with the consistent cold leading up to Christmas, then Mother Nature filled everything in and has kept fairy dust refreshing me a 1/2” to an 1” at a time. Given today’s cold I figured better be safe and make sure I can hold on to my snowpack until Memorial Day, so I’m making snow for the first time since Christmas. Hopefully we get lucky over the next 96 hours or so and I end up with a ridiculous base. I’ll post pics if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Canada low jumped south from the 00z run, so our system also jumped south.Main wave ejecting out was also much slower and a bit more loose.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: To say the least. Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy Just now, mimillman said: Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy he smokes my area in the ukmet scenario... 0.9 vs 0.4. Nightmare solution for Chicago as we split the minimal WAA wave and the main wave goes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 UKMET has gone from a weak event just north of I-70, to an I-88 crusher, and now back to a north of I-70 good hit...in the span of 4 model cycles. Wouldn’t really consider that a model of consistency or trending.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Is the writing back on the wall now? That wall must be getting very wordy I'm not sure what your problem is, but yes, the Ukie is another strike against the far northern tier counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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