A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, McHenrySnow said: I've learned not to get my hopes up. It's served me well. solid science 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: solid science oh, is that what you've been trying? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z RGEM based off this run the northern suburbs are out!!!! It is possible that the northern suburbs might miss out but throwing in the towel based off of the 84hr NAM is crazy. I believe the system will be entering the west coast overnight and we still have 48 hours of model runs to get thru and you dont want to be in the bullseye now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z RGEM ticked NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z RGEM ticked NW. . Continuing the NW trend it has had for the last several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 43 minutes ago, mimillman said: 1/3 on the miss south claims. Between the two of us I know we can get to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I just received an e-mail from IWX stating that NWSChat will be down for planned maintenance on Monday from 10 AM - 1 PM EST. They couldn't have timed it more perfectly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Strength of the system is going to have more of an an impact of how far north it goes. Weaker/south vs stronger/north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS SLP stronger but lobe over central Canada further south. Also 500mb looks a little less sharp, I'd expect this to slide SE a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS looks to be coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z GFS bumped NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: GFS SLP stronger but lobe over central Canada further south. Also 500mb looks a little less sharp, I'd expect this to slide SE a bit Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS looks to be coming north. Classic. Assume I am wrong in these cases, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS bumped NW. . Precip depiction still jacked up, but on that track is should be ripping good over N IL at 75-78hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Lesson to myself in analyzing 500mb maps when I'm not a trained meteorologist: don't. It is a tick further northwest. QPF max more consolidated but higher amounts-- at least I got that one right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS SLP stronger but lobe over central Canada further south. Also 500mb looks a little less sharp, I'd expect this to slide SE a bitLobe was further SW. However confluence to the east across northern Great Lakes was north, along with more ridging ahead of ejecting wave. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Again, GFS baby stepping NW. Playing catch up. And as previously eluded to, the cold sector precip depiction is abysmal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 nice look on that 12Z GFS considering where it was 24 hours ago. And no, the north burbs are clearly not out of the game. Also, lends credence to the throw out of the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 SLP track over Indy. Verbatim that would rip over Chicago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Big LE signal in NE IL.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 lead wave looks to drop a solid 3" or 4" here. trending towards a narrow miss south with the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Big LE signal in NE IL. . Textbook track for lake enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Kutchera is your friend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, mimillman said: SLP track over Indy. Verbatim that would rip over Chicago that should be a perfect track for us chicago metro folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Total toss on the verbatim depiction of the heavy qpf/snow swath on the GFS. That's a great surface and 700 mb low track for the metro. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 SLP track over Indy. Verbatim that would rip over ChicagoAbsolutely. Pattern recognition and textbook meteorology >> raw model output in this caseSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z GEM bumped south. Appears to be just south of the 12z GFS. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GEFS are going to be epic. Similar SLP placement but more QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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