Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 0z GEM. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 43 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Need a little dose of old school meteorology on that run of the GFS. Regardless of the confluence to the northeast, the surface and h7 low track depicted would not have nearly as compact a cold sector precip shield imo. It's a close to ideal 700 mb low track and surface low track shown to get heavy snow up into the Chicago metro. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk This upgrade has absolutely destroyed realistic cold sector precip. I just don't get what they did but they did something bad. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The UKIE is going to be a crush job...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 My oh my if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Sometimes you just have to break out the black and whites... Old school images, gotta remember to convert mm to inches for QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 UK... a couple counties south of 12z, at least over here. Many in Iowa really need the energy to be able to lift north more before blocking causes the slide eastward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: My oh my if this verifies I haven’t been around as much this season, but it feels like it’s been a long time since you got walloped. So I hope you get this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 UK... a couple counties south of 12z, at least over here. Many in Iowa really need the energy to be able to lift north more before blocking causes the slide eastward.This run of the UK was several hours slower. Similar latitude at 18z Monday, but while 12z run was north of EVV at that time, the 00z run is just southwest of STL. There's been a decided slowing trend on the 00z guidance thus far. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Ukie and gfs now keeping cleveland in it, it was just the Canadian before -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Starting to feel a bit more hopeful about those of us in and south of the 80 corridor in LOT. It's been a while since we've gotten a solid hit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This upgrade has absolutely destroyed realistic cold sector precip. I just don't get what they did but they did something bad.Agree, it's generally a mess. 700 mb streamlines and RH would indicate respectable banding up into WI and it crushes precip shield to mainly I-80 and south. This is where the human input into the forecast remains important, to be able to pick out these biases/flaws in the models and look deeper into the meteorology with respect to other mass fields that aren't as fickle as QPF, which seems to especially be the case with the GFS.Unfortunate part for this event too is that the GFS v16 hasn't been running since last night or something. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Welp, probably should start paying attention to the ZR potential locally. Gross. Loving the eye candy though regardless. So nice to have something of substance to track and not a parade of meager shortwaves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, bl5585 said: Starting to feel a bit more hopeful about those of us in and south of the 80 corridor in LOT. It's been a while since we've gotten a solid hit of snow. Not even gonna start getting excited until at least the 00z runs tomorrow night. If we're setting the bar at a shovelable/plowable snow, then I'm feeling that. The good news is that the 00z runs still have a big to major hit, just differ on the details. Near-blizzard conditions (if not outright blizzard conditions in some areas) and impactful ice are looking more and more likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, mimillman said: I’d argue DVN or RFD is better. Whatever you do, don’t move to Chicago 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: DVN for sure. Always get tornado warnings near by. Big wind events. Often in the heavy snow axis. Rockford isn't bad either. N IL lucks out a lot. I didn't do an in depth look. Just a quick glance at the sfc map. So definitely could be wrong myself. I'm partly wishcasting I can honestly say before I got the job I had never heard of it before. I don't have a bad thing to say about it though. I loved living in a river city, and there was a sneaky good restaurant and music scene in the QCA. 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Appreciate your contributions on here while you're out in the area! Always enjoy your posts and those of other knowledgeable posters when lurking on the NE threads.@OceanStWx should pay us a visit on this thread if it's not too busy over there haha. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Lots of shortwaves but hard to get too busy when it's only stacking up a tenth at a time. A lot of spread on the northside of this system with the GEFS. Probably stuck sitting on it until late tomorrow when we get a sample of heights across Canada. Not surprisingly the ensemble is sensitive to weaker confluence, resulting in the low pressure farther north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not even gonna start getting excited until at least the 00z runs tomorrow night. If we're setting the bar at a shovelable/plowable snow, then I'm feeling that. The good news is that the 00z runs still have a big to major hit, just differ on the details. Near-blizzard conditions (if not outright blizzard conditions in some areas) and impactful ice are looking more and more likely. I'll double down on this. Been too often that this happens only to get jacked with 48 hours. I think we've all learned that sampling can easily cause this place to erupt in disgust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not even gonna start getting excited until at least the 00z runs tomorrow night. If we're setting the bar at a shovelable/plowable snow, then I'm feeling that. I'm just hoping we can get in the main band with minimal/no mixing. I know it's still entirely possible but I'm at least feeling a bit better about it than I did last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Haha the cut off is so sharp in NW Ohio. I’d be shocked if the southern cutoff doesn’t move to the turnpike/south suburbs of Toledo. Always seems to once we get inside 72 hours as the snow axis typically takes a SW/NE tilt as the event approaches. Odd to see a pure E-W snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Really nice 700 mb low track on the UKMET for much of the Chicago metro to get in on the 700 mb deformation axis snows. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 #3 CIPS analog: Jan 31, 2011 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, bl5585 said: I'm just hoping we can get in the main band with minimal/no mixing. I know it's still entirely possible but I'm at least feeling a bit better about it than I did last night. I'll say this. When I think back on the really big events in Chicago like 1967, 1979, 1999, 2011, 2015... they all hit this area with similar or just slightly less totals. So if this were to be a big dog rivaling those amounts for Chicago (big if... I am not predicting those amounts at this point!), then I would certainly take my chances here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS with a pretty nice trowal signal. Really cooling the cloud tops between these two frames. All model caveats apply, but it's nice potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: #3 CIPS analog: Jan 31, 2011 Only makes sense that both GHD storms would show up on there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro looks a tick north through 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Definitely a bit north. I-88 crush job incoming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 As has been mentioned, this system has slowed a fair amount. 00z Euro ain't too bad, except it's occluding and weakening as the precip shield lifts into the Chicago-Detroit corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 00z Euro... as I mentioned above, this run the system peaks west, then the totals fade east as it occludes and shears out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Congrats Iowa, again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Kuchie Kuchie will make it better. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Disappointing euro run in terms of output. Hopefully a burp. There I am queening.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Can't believe the GFS and and GDPS have caved to the Euro in the 18z and 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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