Malacka11 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Counter-counterpoint: make it wider 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Quick 12z/0z ECMWF comparison 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z EPS now centered from QCA to Chicago metro roughly. Lots of good hits on the members, would like to get rid of the remaining duds. I'm busy getting the forecast out so don't have time to post images today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z EPS Mean... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z EPS Mean... Must have quite a spread in individual members with the mean struggling to have a band over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 drying trend is no bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Must have quite a spread in individual members with the mean struggling to have a band over 6" The MSLP spread remains large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: drying trend is no bueno Not really a drying trend. Mostly due to a bit more spread. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Must have quite a spread in individual members with the mean struggling to have a band over 6" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Southern lake still upper 30s to near 40 at shore, if track ends up working out favorably this really keeps the ceiling quite high, iirc enhancement was a big part of why ghd2 went 20+ imby One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake. Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role. Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake. Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role. Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution. no way is 46 correct but yeah, it's warm for the time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 12z EPS now centered from QCA to Chicago metro roughly. Lots of good hits on the members, would like to get rid of the remaining duds. I'm busy getting the forecast out so don't have time to post images today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk You say that almost as if you have a real job in weather or something and don't just do this as a hobby :p 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Meh. Is a tick further south from 6z but i guess kind of unavoidable with how the OP run came in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 One of the sources I use has lake temp of 46 out a mid-lake. Hard to believe it could still be that warm out at mid-lake even with the mild winter it has been, but if that's correct, then lake enhancement will play a major role. Even if mid lake is in the low 40s, that is still sufficient for a significant lake contribution.MSU remote sensing suggests 42 is the mid-lake max. Probably more reasonable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I believe the Euro is too far north. That blocking is going to be heard from 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just for a point of reference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just for a point of reference.bamwx should fold.. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 #natgas 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: I believe the Euro is too far north. That blocking is going to be heard from I thought you gave up on this 2 hours ago for Indy. Now you're in for Indy? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: #natgas Those anomalies are immaterial to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Just for a point of reference. I actually did follow these guys for a bit. Problem is they don't really provide a uniform forecast rather a variety of forecasts and than hype themselves as correct if one of their six scenarios pan out. Worse, they inundate social media with these various mets who push these conflicting/contradicting scenarios. Most of it geared I suspect to give the impression of accuracy and lure unwitting energy traders/clients. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Again, the euro h7 track argues for some mid level magic. Based on the 12Z run today I would jackpot southern WI along the state line with IL. QPF queening won’t tell the whole story. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baum said: I actually did follow these guys for a bit. Problem is they don't really provide a uniform forecast rather a variety of forecasts and than hype themselves as correct if one of their six scenarios pan out. Worse, they inundate social media with these various mets who push these conflicting/contradicting scenarios. Most of it geared I suspect to give the impression of accuracy and lure unwitting energy traders/clients. They've been quackier than a duck farm for ages. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: QPF queening unapologetic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: unapologetic It's a very NE forum thing. Us Midwesterners are a bit more polite. Except for me and you. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: It's a very NE forum thing. Us Midwesterners are a bit more polite. Except for me and you. Lol. CT Rain started that probably 6-7 years ago. Drivers here have devolved to Boston level.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z euro miss north like by miles. 12z gfs miss south barely. Lock it in. Lol. Obviously take heavy snow axis with grain of salt at this time but does look like cut off will be sharp and could be near here. Low track is actually great on the GFS and Euro for my area but guessing some warm air aloft getting pulled north could set up the mixing line nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: 12z euro miss north like by miles. 12z gfs miss south barely. Lock it in. Lol. Obviously take heavy snow axis with grain of salt at this time but does look like cut off will be sharp and could be near here. Low track is actually great on the GFS and Euro for my area but guessing some warm air aloft getting pulled north could set up the mixing line nearby. you're sitting pretty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: you're sitting pretty I definitely would rather be in the in between with models at this stage. Being in jackpot days out usually doesn't end well unless it's GHD 2011 blizzard which locked in like a week out. Ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I'm actually getting drawn back in. . Just hope its not ice 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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