Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 ChicagoStorm looking for thread storm winit’s been a while.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 When we packed to car to start the drive from Boston, I made sure to bring deep boots. The pattern looked good. Got here and realized it looked like winter, strong snow burst Tuesday evening-and now hopefully the big show. Big weekend of tracking incoming. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: Here’s the 500mb field from the 12z UKMET Some positive trends for our area. Northern vort is definitely further north and the west based -NAO should help to minimize any crazy northward trend with the main southern energy and help it to amplify. One of the main things that intrigues me is the availability of moisture should the southern energy have room to strengthen with some added STJ influence. Not completely sold out for our area yet as I would like to see some more positive trends. Should get a clearer picture by tomorrow 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: ChicagoStorm looking for thread storm win His last thread was a win for my area . I have faith in him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: When we packed to car to start the drive from Boston, I made sure to bring deep boots. The pattern looked good. Got here and realized it looked like winter, strong snow burst Tuesday evening-and now hopefully the big show. Big weekend of tracking incoming. The burst we got Tuesday night was our biggest event yet haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: it’s been a while. . the derecho call was your everest imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: the derecho call was your everest imo Short of calling snowstorms 6 months out, like that guy who makes the MS Paint maps, you won’t beat that call. Damn good forecasting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: When we packed to car to start the drive from Boston, I made sure to bring deep boots. The pattern looked good. Got here and realized it looked like winter, strong snow burst Tuesday evening-and now hopefully the big show. Big weekend of tracking incoming. You realize you're going to have to move to Chicago if this pans out, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: When we packed to car to start the drive from Boston, I made sure to bring deep boots. The pattern looked good. Got here and realized it looked like winter, strong snow burst Tuesday evening-and now hopefully the big show. Big weekend of tracking incoming. That's a long drive if you do it regularly. I don't mind road trips, but they can be tiring sometimes. Bring your New England magic this way so Chicago-Detroit-Toronto can get a 12"+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Short of calling snowstorms 6 months out, like that guy who makes the MS Paint maps, you won’t beat that call. Damn good forecasting Diamond in the rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 me watching the euro roll out after the ukie comes in hot 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 feeling pretty confident, as long as it doesn't slide just south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 42 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: What's nice about this setup is that we're not relying on an exotic phase, like some of the fails the past few winters. Main sensitivity is to the magnitude of confluence from the NAO blocking and to a lesser extent the magnitude of the main shortwave itself. We're seeing the potential here if that confluence can stay far enough north. Still some failure modes, but also plenty of reasons why this has legs. Another important thing to keep in mind is that without that block, there's no event here, background pattern of plunging -PNA (which would normally yield a strongly amplifying SE ridge), La Nina forcing, and point of entry of the southern stream wave probably would be a pretty warm cutter. So there's some concern lingering for suppression, but lessening vs yesterday given trends since then. I think concern for wave coming in too far north and bringing mixing issues farther north is a valid one too. All in all, I like where we sit and we have some wiggle room. Personally, I am 10 times more concerned about the heavy band being north of here than I am about it being south. It will either be I-80 or north of I-80 imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: me watching the euro roll out after the ukie comes in hot No whammy, no whammy, no whammy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I’m trying to keep my hopes in check, after the great disappearing act of late winter 2020. It was a nice snowfall on February 26, 5.7" here, but honestly I don't remember any of the hype surrounding it? Was it a storm that went farther south than anticipated or was not as strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, michsnowfreak said: It was a nice snowfall on February 26, 5.7" here, but honestly I don't remember any of the hype surrounding it? Was it a storm that went farther south than anticipated or was not as strong? Went from a 12”+ for N IL to a weak, strung out southern wave in about 2 cycles 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: No whammy, no whammy, no whammy.... 80s whammies were funnier lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, michsnowfreak said: 80s whammies were funnier lol hard agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Lol...I was also here for the derecho in August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Obviously the snow aspect is the show stealer but not gonna sleep on the ice threat. And looks like there will be a wind component to enhance utility impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 One thing I tend to be worried about out this way is the possibility that the storm doesn’t get going until east of the area. I’m not sure if that’s particularly likely here, but is generally a concern for storms on this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The Euro digs the northern stream trough a bit more this run... have to think the end result will be south of the last two runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 The Euro digs the northern stream trough a bit more this run... have to think the end result will be south of the last two runs.Most definitely will end up a bit south due to that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Euro digs the northern stream trough a bit more this run... have to think the end result will be south of the last two runs. For sure, still has the looks of a sig hit centered on I-80. The Hoosier Special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: For sure, still has the looks of a sig hit centered on I-80. The Hoosier Special Yup, another big dog incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Still a big dog, but significant jump south. The heavy band has shifted three counties south in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Crush job incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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