michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: I don’t know the local micro climate but the GFS blows no matter where the location is. gfs is especially bad for a lot of the lake effect/lake enhanced events we get in Michigan. it will show a generic blob of precip and good luck even getting an idea where the best bands are (hi res is better but not fool proof) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Thought the NAM was also pretty accurate with that event?Yep, the NAM performed very well with that event, probably the overall best with UKMET. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: Thought the NAM was also pretty accurate with that event? If my memory is correct-NAM was the model that showed a good deformation band well north of other models and that’s what happened. I ended up with 14.1 inches which was obliterated by the obscene grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 UK coming in way north, looks like the Euro. The northern stream trough swings back up into Canada and out of the way, allows the sw energy to lift northeast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: If my memory is correct-NAM was the model that showed a good deformation band well north of other models and that’s what happened. I ended up with 14.1 inches which was obliterated by the obscene grinch. The grinch storm temp gradient was insane. Christmas was our coldest day of this mild winter (upper teens/low 20s and 3.6" snow)...frost in Florida...60s in Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 one ukie please chicago goes from .1 to 1.6 qpf in 1 run, lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 HOLY UKIE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z UK... this track would make a lot of forum members happy. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Yeah, I'll take the UKIE please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z UK... this track would make a lot of forum members happy.And that’s 10:1.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Oh my at the UKMET. Plus LES on the back side. Gotta try to not get too excited lol, will be doing the grids and AFD for LOT. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 That is a GHD 2 track isn't it fellas! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 That is a GHD 2 track isn't it fellas! Textbook for the Chicago metro. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Textbook for the Chicago metro. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Well-deserved for the Chicago crew considering the snow drought y'all are experiencing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Textbook for the Chicago metro. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Chicago to Detroit LOL. So far we got the CMC to bump north and the UKIE to come north... Just need to have the EURO hold and honestly the NAM if it went past 84 looked promising. I think we got something here folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Oh my 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Oh my at the UKMET. Plus LES on the back side. Gotta try to not get too excited lol, will be doing the grids and AFD for LOT. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Just let it all out. Passion is good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 What's nice about this setup is that we're not relying on an exotic phase, like some of the fails the past few winters. Main sensitivity is to the magnitude of confluence from the NAO blocking and to a lesser extent the magnitude of the main shortwave itself. We're seeing the potential here if that confluence can stay far enough north. Still some failure modes, but also plenty of reasons why this has legs. Another important thing to keep in mind is that without that block, there's no event here, background pattern of plunging -PNA (which would normally yield a strongly amplifying SE ridge), La Nina forcing, and point of entry of the southern stream wave probably would be a pretty warm cutter. So there's some concern lingering for suppression, but lessening vs yesterday given trends since then. I think concern for wave coming in too far north and bringing mixing issues farther north is a valid one too. All in all, I like where we sit and we have some wiggle room. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Very impressive looking UKMET run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK... this track would make a lot of forum members happy. NJBxdnB1myz2MaU8kYgfLolj01Oqrd2ZTHcqivWk360.mp4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z CMC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I'll take one Canadian for CLE pls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Chicago to Detroit LOL. So far we got the CMC to bump north and the UKIE to come north... Just need to have the EURO hold and honestly the NAM if it went past 84 looked promising. I think we got something here folks. My favorite storm. 16.7" at Detroit, 18" on the ground...Nice deep snowpack was put in place for the record cold month that would follow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Here’s the 500mb field from the 12z UKMET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Hard not to be cautiously optimistic looking at guidance. Haven’t had a spread the wealth track like that in a few years. Glad we don’t have to rely on a phase here to get the big dog storm. Still have concerns that the northern stream suppresses this to the south, but it’ll also keep this from just cutting north. Liking the CHI-DET corridor fo sho That UKMET run is the literally dream. Deepens to 990mb just south of Toledo. Would probably be getting blizzard conditions in some of the region with a sizable area of 30-45kt 925mb winds. The area of 1.0”+ QPF with ratios definitely a little better than 10:1 would get big dog totals. Taking that run to the bank 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Wow! Time to reactivate the Greenhouse account! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I’m trying to keep my hopes in check, after the great disappearing act of late winter 2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Seems too good to be true at this point. Samples please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 33 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Well-deserved for the Chicago crew considering the snow drought y'all are experiencing. ChicagoStorm looking for thread storm win 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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