Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 . 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The orientation of the euro reminds me of a slightly farther north version of Feb 1-2, 2015. 18.0" at Chicago and 16.7" at Detroit 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Going to be a lot of precip with this thing if the trough has any degree of amplitude upon reaching the OV/Lakes. Gulf is wide open. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Not going to be as far north as the 12z Euro, but this....this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 miss south stank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The GFS was initially showing an amped cutter for this weekend, which turned out to be garbage. Will it miss just as badly, but in the opposite direction, with wave 2? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I'm not feeling a miss north here that's for sure. If anything at all, a miss south is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: Not going to be as far north as the 12z Euro, but this....this is it. Such confidence for a guy with like 5" of snow on the season. Just to note, you'll be held personally responsible if it doesn't shift to include mby. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Such confidence for a guy with like 5" of snow on the season. Just to note, you'll be held personally responsible if it doesn't shift to include mby. Go big or go home. 90% chance I go home and resume being my grumpy self. 10% chance I'm grumpy 5 days after this event when it all melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Just a note on the model discussion. This is not apples to apples but the GFS was hot garbage for the eastern big dog on December 17th. There was a fairly strong block that developed out ahead of it and the GFS was suppression city within the short range. The NAM, UKMET, GEMs, and ECMWF all far outperformed the operational GFS, and GFS v16 did much better than the op. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Already smell the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z ECMWF came as a big surprise. Gonna need to analyze this system a bit deeper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z EPS Mean... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Such confidence for a guy with like 5" 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z EPS Mean...12z EPS individual members Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS looking solid, nice to see. Still a ton of time but hopefully we're zeroing in on something legit Given the overall look of the trough and antecedent, it's hard to see us totally striking out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 12z EPS individual members Still plenty of duds in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 that large of a 6+ stripe from a d4+ mean seems p bullish to me, ymmv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Totally missed that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z EPS low tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Going to be a lot of precip with this thing if the trough has any degree of amplitude upon reaching the OV/Lakes. Gulf is wide open.This is a key point here, related to the potential for a swath of significant precip amounts: If the primary wave remains coherent/amped and juiced (with Pacific and Gulf moisture), there is plenty of latent heat release involved. Height rises out ahead of the wave aided by the latent heat release are part of the question of whether we can strike right balance between it and the confluence created by the strong west based -NAO. Can see it frequently on the east coast when there's blocking in play, and for the EC, there's the addition of Atlantic moisture and heating to add into the equation. Have seen it go both ways, but if the wave remains strong and juiced, it's unlikely to be total suppression city , just the location of the max precip swath modulated. If we do get a strong system out of this l, I do unfortunately expect a sharp gradient on the north and south side, inherent to this type of setup plus the likelihood of mesoscale banding due to a strong thermal gradient. For the reasons above, it's not at all surprising to see duds among the 51 member EPS at this range. What's nice is that it's a dispersive ensemble and we can see the various outcomes and glean confidence in or lose confidence in the preferred outcome. The 12z GEFS is mostly duds because it's too non-dispersive of an ensemble system. Edit: And I agree with @A-L-E-K that it is noteworthy for the EPS mean to show that large 6"+ swath at 10:1. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 12z GEFS is mostly duds because it's too non-dispersive of an ensemble system. IIRC didn't some of this get fixed in the most recent update of the GEFS? Or is that still associated with the v16 testing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: IIRC didn't some of this get fixed in the most recent update of the GEFS? Or is that still associated with the v16 testing? The recent GEFS update involved an increase in resolution (35 to 25 km) and in number of ensemble members (20 to 30). It also included the expansion into subseasonal (35 days) and better stochastic/other physics. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 IIRC didn't some of this get fixed in the most recent update of the GEFS? Or is that still associated with the v16 testing?I think it was supposed to be addressed and the size of the GEFS was increased which theoretically helps. However anecdotally it still appears to be too non-dispersive. Since we don't have many big events to go by this winter, the December 17th event I mentioned earlier, GEFS did suffer from being too close to the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 This one feels dare I say...different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 ^See, it's not just me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Not happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Not happening. I am not feeling it for me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 just want to point out that the last storm thread @Chicago Storm started did not end well lol. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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