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Snow shower obs 1/20


ORH_wxman
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Starting this thread for obs on the snow showers today.

Pretty good WINDEX parameters, but the one ingredient missing is a really sharp zone of lift. However, big LI spike and some PVA should help. Lapse rates are about as high as you will ever see them in winter with the column near saturation so if some squalls can develop, they will get quite heavy I think. TTs are near 60 this afternoon before falling. Best chance for heavy squalls will be mid afternoon for central/western areas and late afternoon for eastern areas.

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RAP/HRRR are actually pretty nice looking later on for eastern areas....yes, I know some of you don't give a crap.....but for those who do, worth watching for some decent squalls. TTs near 60 are no joke. Obscene lapse rates.

The FOUS method still suggests this type of WINDEX instability swaths over the region this afternoon ... 

Has the LI jump, the RH > 50% and the T1 to T5 is pretty damn steep as far as lapsing - 

It's just not quite as pronounced as it was yesterday when we brought it up - 

Funny how this season has done that - seems there's a fairly significant correlation between seeing/observing reasons for hope, and immediate subsequent model depiction finding least excuse imagined to rule it out as remotely plausible - lol... It's like the AI of modeling has evolved a deviant machine-intelligence that's going, 'oh yeah - take that'

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