NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Canadian furthest NE with accums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: weird how it just craps out as it moves east..... All models have it getting sheared as it moves east. Still a lot of uncertainty with this. I would be happy with 2-4 by me near 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2nd wave is so close on the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is further north at 6z Take 2-4" and run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 59 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM at 84 meanwhile has practically no indication this would come north of the PA/MD border Yep. If the NAM idea is correct it’s not going to so much as flurry north of Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 30 minutes ago, Rjay said: Take 2-4" and run I'm happy with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. If the NAM idea is correct it’s not going to so much as flurry north of Cape May The NAM historically has sucked with these types of systems beyond 48 however. Usually is somewhat too flat. We’ve gotten all excited here a few times on more classic events like this where every model has I90 being pounded but the NAM shows the main snow axis over NYC only for it to jump 100 miles inside 2 days. This looks like it might be that 1 in 50 SWFE type events where this area gets decent snows. There hasn’t really been one in 20 years or more. I don’t include 2/23/08 because that technically flipped over to rain eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM historically has sucked with these types of systems beyond 48 however. Usually is somewhat too flat. We’ve gotten all excited here a few times on more classic events like this where every model has I90 being pounded but the NAM shows the main snow axis over NYC only for it to jump 100 miles inside 2 days. This looks like it might be that 1 in 50 SWFE type events where this area gets decent snows. There hasn’t really been one in 20 years or more. I don’t include 2/23/08 because that technically flipped over to rain eventually I thought we had 6 inches of snow with 2/23/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. If the NAM idea is correct it’s not going to so much as flurry north of Cape May I’m worried euro trended south last night so let’s see what it shows at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I thought we had 6 inches of snow with 2/23/08. You are correct. Central Park recorded exactly 6.0 inches from that event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 12Z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, PoZitron20 said: 12z ECMWF date 1-22-2021 ----------------------------------------------------- hr-by-hr updates hr54-60hr energy more consolidated than 00z hr72 north of 00z hr78 same position as 00z hr84 a bit weaker than 00z hr90 the backend trail energy is trying to charge this storm's vorticity or atleast is long and connected to the next's storm vort very weak storm for CNJ is the final call on this ECMWF run Not a great sign two weak runs of Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, NEG NAO said: 12Z EURO I mean as I said yesterday 1-3 inches is something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, PoZitron20 said: 12z ECMWF date 1-22-2021 ----------------------------------------------------- hr-by-hr updates hr54-60hr energy more consolidated than 00z hr72 north of 00z hr78 same position as 00z hr84 a bit weaker than 00z hr90 the backend trail energy is trying to charge this storm's vorticity or atleast is long and connected to the next's storm vort very weak storm for CNJ is the final call on this ECMWF run Euro still showing a 1.5 to 4 inch snow for a lot of the area. This continues to look like a decent advisory level event. A little early for predictions, but right now looking like a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 event. Euro right now is showing slightly less than the other models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Not a great sign two weak runs of Euro Meh its an outlier being so dry 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 56 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Meh its an outlier being so dry calling the EURO an outlier 3 1/2 days before an event ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 euro= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 My 3P/22 impressions: have looked at everything that's available via 12z/22 modeling except no GFSv16. In any case, I may be 6 hours too fast on the start and 1-2" too high on the high end of the ranges provided this morning. Advisory or low end warning most of forum except n of POU-DXR-HVN (drying out?). Shorter duration with primary impact Tuesday morning commute. snow ratios should 10 to 12 to 1 north of I80 tho no guarantee. Understand the concern about dry air eating up snow near I84 se NYS and especially CT/MA where greatest doubts. QPF is not impressive but NAEFS holding it's own...maybe south by 20 MI at most. I like the 500MB vort max translating east or east southeast across northern PA Tuesday. Unsure whether we can get a deep saturated layer up here between I80 and the NYS border? so the I80 axis should do well with at least WAA snow Mon night and east then sewd movin rh from southern NYS and northern PA midday Tuesday. My end time still close to 6P Tue but may lag a little per EC. Waiting this out a little longer. I think the NAM will become more helpful with 12z/23 cycle...still a little out of range and 84 hr NAM not known to me as the best of its output. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: calling the EURO an outlier 3 1/2 days before an event ? Yes Euro isn't the model it used to be. Are you hugging it ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Meh its an outlier being so dry Dry and further south, looks like all models except gfs trended south today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Still enough lead time so that the ensembles will be worth a look. Lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Yes Euro isn't the model it used to be. Are you hugging it ? No - but 3 1/2 days out all options are still on the table as far as I am concerned - everyone should be doing that IMO.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Suppression = depression for most. The super dry dew pts. just eat it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: weird how it just craps out as it moves east..... Tons of dry air as it encounters confluence and the wave itself dampens out under the block. Essentially gets squeezed to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 50 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: calling the EURO an outlier 3 1/2 days before an event ? The EPS supports the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS supports the op This will be a minor snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 37 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Dry and further south, looks like all models except gfs trended south today Ukie is a few inches Euro is insanely dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie is a few inches Euro is insanely dry rightfully so look at the dewpoints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie is a few inches Euro is insanely dry As dry as 12z Euro is, it still gives most of the area 2 to 3 inches. We'll gladly take an advisory level event after getting so little snow most of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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