Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[MJO812]

Gfs comes back to reality

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs comes back to reality

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Thanks for the images 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thanks for the images 

Don't think you will like this one

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Don't think you will like this one

Uh

[MJO812]

Cmc coming  in more north

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc coming  in more north

[HVSnowLover]

15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Don't think you will like this one

What’s wrong with 4-6 inches for nyc? 

[NEG NAO]

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, PoZitron20 said:

Early signs 00z ECMWF might not be much different than 00z GFS 00z CMC combo...

Euro isn't even out yet

[HVSnowLover]

Now we are under 5 days I think if 0z euro is on board then we might have something here. 

[mattinpa]

44 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Now we are under 5 days I think if 0z euro is on board then we might have something here. 

Looking at a nice, solid event. Probably nothing major, but that could come after. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Areas NE of NYC will have to watch the dewpoints this weekend. The Euro was really struggling to get the snow into New England next week with so much dry air being modeled. We usually need to get to within the NAMs best range to know exactly where the cutoff in snowfall will set up.

 

 

 

looks like the south shore will be a good place to be for the storms next week, eh?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Don't think you will like this one

whats causing a foot plus across central and NE PA?  elevation?

 

[RU848789]

So the GFS finally caves to the Euro, UK, and CMC tonight and then the Euro fizzles for us...just not much precip...

[wdrag]

Good morning this Friday Jan 22: Think consensus is developing that most here will enjoy a significant plowable snow event late Monday-Tuesday.  My take below based on 00z/22 ops and EPS/GEFS/NAEFS, and 06z GFS op.

Travelers into the northeast USA Noon Monday- 6PM Tuesday the 25th-26th: While still some uncertainty, if you have travel plans into the I84-I80 corridors or I95 Baltimore to NYC-New Haven Monday Night-Tuesday morning, prepare for delays due to snow, except snow-ice I78 southward in NJ to Baltimore. Expecting amounts to range from ~1" or less I90 in Mass (could be zero if the storm stays south), to an uncertain 1-5" CT with the least in northeast Connecticut (Ashford) and a less than certain forecast there, to between 4-7" se NYS, and 5-9" ne PA, nw NJ. The high side 9" amount is no guarantee but it's in some of the modeling. Best chance of 9" in ne PA is along I80.  LI/NYC my expectation this early is 1 to maybe as much as 6"??? with the best chance of 3"+ western LI/NYC. I expect plowing will be needed most of our area except maybe n CT/MA/ and the region along or just southeast of I95 BWI-NYC. Temps will be subfreezing throughout the event except if it starts Monday afternoon when it will take an hour or two to drop below freezing. Baltimore-Philly is in the ice-snow zone so amounts of each element will depend on duration but it will get slippery there for a time, possibly as early as Noon Monday. Finally: the end of this event should be Tuesday afternoon, but it's possible that it could linger into the wee predawn hours of Wednesday?

 

Attached a NWS graphic ensemble 30+% chance of 3+" of snow Monday into early Tuesday. Blue is 50+%. This gives an idea of the focus only through 7AM Tuesday and it will snow beyond 7AM Tuesday- so this is conservative. Also the 00z/22 NAEFS qpf for the 24 hr period ending 00z/27 with .4" = to the 10MM line, and also the sfc temp for near 00z./27 which shows 0C along I95. 

[Northof78]

Early, but N/C NJ to me looks like 3-6/4-8”

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Northof78 said:

Early, but N/C NJ to me looks like 3-6/4-8”

Gfs is further north at 6z

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is the NAM will be the tiebreaker vote between the Euro and CMC. The Euro has a stronger 50/50 low and drier air in New England. While the CMC is weaker with the 50/50 and less dry air in New England. The NAM usually does really well with these features once within its best range.

 

Eps just came more north of 0z. 6z Euro is also north of 0z.

 

[HVSnowLover]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is further north at 6z

So Euro is now the outlier? 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

So Euro is now the outlier? 

Gfs

Euro ticked north at 6z

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs

Euro ticked north at 6z

Some genuinely cold nights ahead after this frame

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

Euro ticked north at 6z

Thanks for posting, any further north and the city might mix. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Thanks for posting, any further north and the city might mix. 

Here is the next frame

[HVSnowLover]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing a foot plus across central and NE PA?  elevation?

 

I think more so heavier precip further west. 

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS

[Brian5671]

weird how it just craps out as it moves east.....

[cleetussnow]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

weird how it just craps out as it moves east.....

Goes to crap during transfer to delmarva coast.  

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM at 84 meanwhile has practically no indication this would come north of the PA/MD border 

[EastonSN+]

Canadian furthest NE with accums.