Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

It was way too amped and warm in the mid December storm. 

It was right about where the axis of heaviest snow would be though. 

[gravitylover]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The last 2 weeks and the next 2 weeks are a good example of what if....someone should post an image of what this pattern would have looked like with a positive AO/NAO vs what we currently have.  It would be 60-70 every day here

Better than this useless not quite cold and not warm enough to do outside stuff that we've been having for the last month. I have a whole bunch of car work to do so why don't you see if you can order up some of those 60's for me.

[HVSnowLover]

20 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It was right about where the axis of heaviest snow would be though. 

That’s true actually but it changed parts of  nyc/LI to a lot of rain which never happened 

[snowman19]

Euro looks like it is about to go suppressed and sheared 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Euro looks like it is about to go suppressed and sheared 

really ?

[NEG NAO]

[HeadInTheClouds]

CMC, UKIE, Euro all show light/moderate event now. 

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

really ?

It gives New England nothing now. You can see the block press. It is nothing like the Ukie or CMC

[MJO812]

The storm next Friday should be watched. Right now the Euro has it crushing the Mid Atlantic. 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Better than this useless not quite cold and not warm enough to do outside stuff that we've been having for the last month. I have a whole bunch of car work to do so why don't you see if you can order up some of those 60's for me.

There is a nice piece of property in Raleigh for you. Save a lot on taxes too 

[HVSnowLover]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Euro looks like it is about to go suppressed and sheared 

Not that surpresed but very sheared 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not that surpresed but very sheared 

It’s getting put through the meat grinder with that block and the vortex pressing down. Shearing out. Don’t get invested with this one IMO

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not that surpresed but very sheared 

Yeah, it only has an inch or 2 for me but atleast it's something to track in such a boring January so far. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s getting put through the meat grinder with that block and the vortex pressing down. Shearing out. Don’t get invested with this one IMO

I don’t like the setup that much but honestly even 1-3 inches at this point feels like something 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s getting put through the meat grinder with that block and the vortex pressing down. Shearing out. Don’t get invested with this one IMO

Well I am

[Allsnow]

3 threats next week of accumulating snow. The first one looks like a long duration 3-6/4-8 type deal. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, Allsnow said:

3 threats next week of accumulating snow. The first one looks like a long duration 3-6/4-8 type deal. 

Are you talking about the Monday/Tuesday event?

[Allsnow]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Are you talking about the Monday/Tuesday event?

Yes. 

[Allsnow]

Snow mean on the eps is 3-5. Holding steady 

[Allsnow]

Qpf on the euro is the same as last night 

[wdrag]

 

12z NAEFS continues to offer sleet/ice s of I80 for the 25th-26th,  about .2 QPF to I84 and about .4 or so I195.  I like that for starters. 12z/21 version slightly further n than the 00z and so despite the rather paltry  GEFS, the GEPS compromised up and it sort of matches the 12z/21 EPS...the concern being how much snow can occur in n CT or does the modeled confluence slip south with time?  Right now the EPS and GEFS have flip flopped from 3 days ago with the EPS much more favorable for a widespread snow-ice event in the forum.

Therefore, I've no changes to prior topic threads, including rushing the first snow in NJ during the day Monday (not that it will be correct but i cant confidently way one way or the other)... a light to moderate advisory event with a possible small swath of low end warning. Best I can do. Taking down the Christmas tree... something I'm reluctant to do. Later, 

 

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s getting put through the meat grinder with that block and the vortex pressing down. Shearing out. Don’t get invested with this one IMO

You heard it here first everyone! @Rjay I guess lock the thread 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

There is a nice piece of property in Raleigh for you. Save a lot on taxes too 

Yeah but it's in N Carolina

I think I saw a few flurries when that blob passed through earlier that gave many in the area a bit of snow today. It might have been dust blowing in the breeze but since I need it to continue a streak that's now at 5 days straight I'm going to say it snowed today.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, bluewave said:

Areas NE of NYC will have to watch the dewpoints this weekend. The Euro was really struggling to get the snow into New England next week with so much dry air being modeled. We usually need to get to within the NAMs best range to know exactly where the cutoff in snowfall will set up.

 

 

 

Yeah. I think I am out of the game here in SW CT.

What a monster for the following storm for the SE and MA. Wow.

[crossbowftw3]

Looks like we're teetering on the edge here in Sullivan. If it comes to only getting 1-3 that'll still be fine but I need some more north trends to get into something good.

[MJO812]

Eps further north and warmer but more precio in our area. 3-6 for the coast .

[MJO812]

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

mixing issues in South Brooklyn ?

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

mixing issues in South Brooklyn ?

Getting close 

[MJO812]