Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I agree. The shortwave responsible for the precipitation in the mid-Atlantic on the 26th is stronger and sharper this run. Precipitation gets further north into the Ohio Valley this run. A few more small changes like that in the mid and upper levels would produce a big change at the surface IMO.  

Cmc further south

[eduggs]

The GFS and CMC are a lot closer together now after moving towards each other. A miss to the south or glancing blow seems most likely. But we're not so far off from a decent hit.

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc further south

[NEG NAO]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs was clearly trending towards Euro/CMC but then it shredded the system apart. 

 

trending towards 12Z CMC - the 0Z CMC is similar to the other 0Z guidance

[MJO812]

Ukie

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

I like having the UK and Euro on our side, even if the Euro isn't quite as robust as the UK - still 5 days out, so much can change...

 

[MJO812]

Euro has 3 storms to track starting next week.

[wdrag]

The modeling variability continues. Topic update is as follows, subject to considerable debater I'm sure.  Go for it.  I'll check back at 4P.  Fingers crossed.

Topic reedits 630A/2: Added widespread to the topic title. Uncertainty continues, especially northern extent of 2+" with I84 somewhat in doubt because of the last 24 hours of GFS depressed cycles. However, the GGEM/GEPS, and especially the EC/EPS have come back north since the 00z/20 cycles.  NAEFS is still south, and one can debate if the event lasts into Tuesday night but overall, the topic stands as is,  with considerable debate on what happens. I've added the latest WPC probability of 1/4" melted w.e. frozen which you can see has trended higher and more expansive and i think that is correct. It does not match some of the WPC prior to 08z/21 qpf which looks slightly lighter but going with the WPC frozen prob, because of the GEPS and EPS. 

My take at 6A/21 Travelers into the northeast USA Monday-Tuesday the 25th-26th: Still considerable uncertainty on how this all transpires but we should be aware that an extensive hazardous wintry episode is expected for all untreated surfaces, especially the I84-I80-I95 corridors from Baltimore to I80, with less certainty I84. The front end Monday start time is uncertain. It could start for a couple of hours Monday morning then stop for 12 hours. The bulk of this event probably occurs Monday night into Tuesday the 26th. Odds favor a change to rain or ice along the I95 corridor Tuesday morning the 26th, but mostly snow northwest of I95, especially the I80 corridor northward. There is considerable uncertainty on where the primary snow or ice event will occur in the northeast so its good to be aware of the possibilities but no action recommended yet, unless you're headed to Baltimore-Philly where messy slippery wintry elements develop by Noon Monday.  Have a day!

[MJO812]

Paging Walt

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Paging Walt

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Gfs came north

[MJO812]

Gfs is also really close with the 2nd wave

[North and West]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this the kind of flavor of storm that February 8, 1994 was? (one of my all-time underrated favorites) 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs came north

Till everything goes south again - we are currently climbing the hill of the roller coaster....

[SnowGoose69]

The 2nd or 3rd system is probably the one to watch...the 1st really dampens and strings out on most guidance...it could still change but that is not going to be a huge storm by any means I don't think

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 2nd or 3rd system is probably the one to watch...the 1st really dampens and strings out on most guidance...it could still change but that is not going to be a huge storm by any means I don't think

A few inches isnt out of the question here 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A few inches isnt out of the question here 

I would think you would be going for the winter storm warning CMC

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Till everything goes south again - we are currently climbing the hill of the roller coaster....

It’ll be the squeeze between the block north of us and the SE ridge and hoping whatever wave comes in doesn’t get shredded. The -PNA will result in a pumped SE ridge so too suppressed isn’t that big a concern to me. Shredded to nothing or rain are the bigger concerns. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll be the squeeze between the block north of us and the SE ridge and hoping whatever wave comes in doesn’t get shredded. The -PNA will result in a pumped SE ridge so too suppressed isn’t that big a concern to me. Shredded to nothing or rain are the bigger concerns. 

There is a real fine line for sure.  Even if the SE ridge pumps enough for the wave to ride along BWI-ACY which is ideal for us the system is still going to undergo dampening which would probably result in a place like Easton seeing way more snow than NYC because you are likely going to lose lift/forcing as this goes more east.

[HVSnowLover]

Good pattern honestly for the next two weeks, hope we cash in 

[HeadInTheClouds]

If the Ukie and Euro are on board with CMC on their 12z runs then this gets interesting. GFS is trash.  

[HVSnowLover]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Paging Walt

Perfect track for NYC

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

If the Ukie and Euro are on board with CMC on their 12z runs then this gets interesting. GFS is trash.  

IMO everything is "trash" right now. There has been no consistency or agreement for more then a run or 2 in a row - and the timing is still very questionable with a few so called events on the table for next week - IMO we won't have a handle on this till sometime this weekend...........

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Good pattern honestly for the next two weeks, hope we cash in 

The last 2 weeks and the next 2 weeks are a good example of what if....someone should post an image of what this pattern would have looked like with a positive AO/NAO vs what we currently have.  It would be 60-70 every day here

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

If the Ukie and Euro are on board with CMC on their 12z runs then this gets interesting. GFS is trash.  

Ukie is on board. It is warmer and north than the cmc.

2-4 inches for NYC with more inland. The coast sees mixing. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is on board. It is warmer and north than the cmc.

2-4 inches for NYC with more inland. The coast sees mixing. 

The Ukie solution is ludicrous. It drives the storm into a block. It was way overamped several times the last 2 winters. Almost guaranteed to be a huge outlier when the Euro comes out

[HeadInTheClouds]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO everything is "trash" right now. There has been no consistency or agreement for more then a run or 2 in a row - and the timing is still very questionable with a few so called events on the table for next week - IMO we won't have a handle on this till sometime this weekend...........

True but Ukie and Euro both showed a light/moderate event on their 00z runs so if 12z runs are somewhat similar that's a win especially with CMC coming north. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The Ukie solution is ludicrous. It drives the storm into a block. It was way overamped several times the last 2 winters. Almost guaranteed to be a huge outlier when the Euro comes out

It was way too amped and warm in the mid December storm. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The Ukie solution is ludicrous. It drives the storm into a block. It was way overamped several times the last 2 winters. Almost guaranteed to be a huge outlier when the Euro comes out

That's what I and others said when it was consistent in giving 2 feet to Albany area with Dec 16-17 storm. Im not throwing anything out right now but I always weigh GFS and ICON less than other models. 

[snowman19]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

It was way too amped and warm in the mid December storm. 

Sure was, it was a huge bust, as was several other storms the last couple of winters it overamped. It just drives this storm right into a block like it doesn’t exist. I think the CMC is too far north as well, but the Ukie is just asinine