Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

But the last several years, we had a +NAO and that’s why we kept seeing the last minute “north trend” we never had a west based -NAO block pressing down. The flow is also screaming across the CONUS next week, this is only going to get so far north before it hits a brick wall. That block means business. I think the threat is suppressed, not trending further north 

We also have a strong western trough which will definitely try to pump the SE ridge. 

This could be a perfect squeeze play but not a lot of room for error. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We also have a strong western trough which will definitely try to pump the SE ridge. 

This could be a perfect squeeze play but not a lot of room for error. 

This setup is nothing at all like the last several winters where a storm was modeled south, then had a last minute north trend to give us snow. The only reason why that was happening was because there was no NAO blocking whatsoever, the +NAO was allowing the SE ridge to pump and that caused the last minute correction north. We have a 180 degree opposite setup now. There will be a legit west based -NAO block pressing down, this storm will only get so far north and that’s it. The block is not going to allow the last minute SE ridge pump this time. Suppression is absolutely believable and the most likely scenario 

[SnoSki14]

A deep western trough will constructively interfere with a strong NAO blocking regime. 

This is not 2010. There will be ample resistance to the blocking which could benefit us. 

[MJO812]

Euro is already  amped at 84 hours

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is already  amped at 84 hours

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro not in order but you get the general idea.......

[NEG NAO]

12Z EURO even reaches as far north as Central NE

[wdrag]

Early but encouraged that the 12z/20 GGEM has come back... whether that's correct I don't know, but I think it's correct.  As noted earlier in the thread... the 12z/20 UK is on board big time, but for the UK, thats past 96 hours...not so reliable and just previous-now, the 12z/20 EC is back where it was and so... waiting it out. Will comment around 4P but I'm encouraged we continue on track for a widespread wintry event. Thank you to the 12z/20 GGEM, EC and UK op's.  Unsure what is going on with the GFS the past two cycles and no para to check.  Have to move on with the NAEFS and EPS as best we can. Won't tidy up the topic til tomorrow morning but everything originated looks good to me.   Also,  later today, or tomorrow morning I will present information on the EC and how it handles snow accumulation. Not so cut and dried. Later, Walt

[RU848789]

Mark me down for this, lol...

 

 

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Early but encouraged that the 12z/20 GGEM has come back... whether that's correct I don't know, but I think it's correct.  As noted earlier in the thread... the 12z/20 UK is on board big time, but for the UK, thats past 96 hours...not so reliable and just previous-now, the 12z/20 EC is back where it was and so... waiting it out. Will comment around 4P but I'm encouraged we continue on track for a widespread wintry event. Thank you to the 12z/20 GGEM, EC and UK op's.  Unsure what is going on with the GFS the past two cycles and no para to check.  Have to move on with the NAEFS and EPS as best we can. Won't tidy up the topic til tomorrow morning but everything originated looks good to me.   Also,  later today, or tomorrow morning I will present information on the EC and how it handles snow accumulation. Not so cut and dried. Later, Walt

Include me if we see at least another days worth or better yet 2 or 3 in a row of consistency from multiple models because the models have been flip flopping all over the place

[MJO812]

Para gfs is further north

Regular gfs is trash 

Euro has the 29th storm 

[SnoSki14]

Looks like a Miller-B/SWFE hybrid. 

The primary could get pretty far north but we'll have a nice airmass in place and plenty of blocking nearby. 

I doubt suppression will be an issue with such a strong west trough. In fact if blocking ends up weaker we'll run the risk of mix/rain however the block is much stronger than mid Dec. 

[MJO812]

Eps is also north

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like a Miller-B/SWFE hybrid. 

The primary could get pretty far north but we'll have a nice airmass in place and plenty of blocking nearby. 

I doubt suppression will be an issue with such a strong west trough. In fact if blocking ends up weaker we'll run the risk of mix/rain however the block is much stronger than mid Dec. 

You can doubt suppression all you want but it’s real 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You can doubt suppression all you want but it’s real 

Its possible but I dont see how

Gfs is alone

Even the para is amped

[MJO812]

12z eps

[jm1220]

The SE ridge is constantly under modeled. The block will be in place but it will try to gain latitude as much as it can. If the S/W is strong enough I’d be worried about rain more than a miss. 

[wdrag]

Hi! 12z/20 NAEFS still south with qpf everywhere but I think thats' due to the GEFS not being robust. Maybe tomorrow it will all mesh a little better.  I'm not into any 10+" amounts at all for this event (just dont think that is a high probability) but i can see widespread advisory conditions I95 corridor northwest to I84, maybe an embedded  swath of lower end warning amounts.  Have to keep moving and will reevaluate Thursday morning and at that time include some info from the EC.

[North and West]

10 minutes ago, PoZitron20 said:

The Jet Streak is Insane! 12z ECMWF

What does this mean to a layman? That it'll be a quick hitter? TIA. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

What does this mean to a layman? That it'll be a quick hitter? TIA. 

Amped solution seems likely 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The SE ridge is constantly under modeled. The block will be in place but it will try to gain latitude as much as it can. If the S/W is strong enough I’d be worried about rain more than a miss. 

Squeeze play

[Neblizzard]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This setup is nothing at all like the last several winters where a storm was modeled south, then had a last minute north trend to give us snow. The only reason why that was happening was because there was no NAO blocking whatsoever, the +NAO was allowing the SE ridge to pump and that caused the last minute correction north. We have a 180 degree opposite setup now. There will be a legit west based -NAO block pressing down, this storm will only get so far north and that’s it. The block is not going to allow the last minute SE ridge pump this time. Suppression is absolutely believable and the most likely scenario 

You said the same thing about the December storm.  How the GFS couldn’t be wrong with the strength of the confluence up north.  We know how that turned out.  This has room to come north some especially if the SE ridge can expand a bit. 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

You said the same thing about the December storm.  How the GFS couldn’t be wrong with the strength of the confluence up north.  We know how that turned out.  This has room to come north some especially if the SE ridge can expand a bit. 

This is not confluence, it’s a full fledged west-based -NAO block. The storm will only go so far north then hit a brick wall, the block is real, suppression is definitely a very real possibility. Good luck getting a SE ridge press with a -NAO block like that

[Eduardo]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is not confluence, it’s a full fledged west-based -NAO block. The storm will only go so far north then hit a brick wall, the block is real, suppression is definitely a very real possibility. Good luck getting a SE ridge press with a -NAO block like that

I see what you're saying and, ordinarily, I'd agree.  But doesn't that WC trough argue for some flexing of the SE ridge, which could in turn push this up further north against the block?  I feel like this is a rare set of teleconnections, but that both a north bump and suppression remain equally possible.  In short, this is the ultimate thread-the-needle deal.

And man oh man.  Were it not for the NAO, it'd be torch city around here.  Let's hope it hangs tough into February!

[Neblizzard]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is not confluence, it’s a full fledged west-based -NAO block. The storm will only go so far north then hit a brick wall, the block is real, suppression is definitely a very real possibility. Good luck getting a SE ridge press with a -NAO block like that

It’s a west based -NAO which is helping the strong confluent flow over the northeast.  In this instance a -PNA can help us by building a stronger SE ridge.  This will become a squeeze play , the EPS and its members keep coming north but only so far north.  I like where we are 5 1/2 days out.

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS = TOTAL MISS

[SnoSki14]

Gfs was clearly trending towards Euro/CMC but then it shredded the system apart. 

 

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFSv16 - south again misses most of metro

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs was clearly trending towards Euro/CMC but then it shredded the system apart. 

 

I agree. The shortwave responsible for the precipitation in the mid-Atlantic on the 26th is stronger and sharper this run. Precipitation gets further north into the Ohio Valley this run. A few more small changes like that in the mid and upper levels would produce a big change at the surface IMO.