Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed. Next week’s synoptic setup has suppression written all over it, unless things change big time, I can’t envision a cutter

Agree 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Agree 

18Z GFS - another flip flop

[weatherpruf]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree 

Well we don't want suppression....

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Sv counts sleet as snow

I thought EC @ EPS included sleet as snow??  Thanks for the note.  Walt

 

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS  cutter solution through the GLs for the first LP Next Week redevelops too late off the coast then whatever lags behind falls apart and is suppressed

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS  cutter solution through the GLs for the first LP Next Week

Cold

[NEG NAO]

0Z ICON is unbelievable

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z ICON is unbelievable

I was just viewing this run and thinking how much a joke the ICON is lol. It certainly should be used by anyone trying to make an accurate forecast.  It's always in la la land in the mid range.

[NEG NAO]

0Z CMC suppressed

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z CMC suppressed

That's  very close

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

both systems are stronger with larger precip field then some other models

I like that the low centers are both progged to pass about 100 miles south of us, thats a good snow track

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This feels like a 2/8-2/11/94 sort of event...it has potential to be a rare SWFE type setup where the metro is mostly snow or at least all frozen. 

that was a memorable week that came after a big thaw!  and yesterday was the anniversary of the -2 recorded in NYC in Jan 1994!

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Well we don't want suppression....

it's actually good to see some cutter scenarios in the modeling, it decreases the chances that this storm will miss us.  Just take the average

[RedSky]

Crazy uncle Ukie out of range but looks warmer and going north of the ECM

[MJO812]

Weaker version of 2010 on the EPS and Euro

 

Get the block to weaken and this will come further north 

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

Good morning- It's Wednesday Jan 20 -

25th-26th: 00z/20 ENS a bit further south, but main change in my view...I90 north is definitely drying.

I see the 06z/20 GFS op gave up on everything 25th on MD northward... yikes-i don't think that is going to be correct?

Meanwhile: NAEFS continues pretty fast on the 25th onset and 0.4 up to I84 with variability.  Let's say this is a bit too high... I still think we're looking at .1 to .2 to I84 and .2 to .4 along and s of I80 in our forum with ice  involved along I95 and potentially a period of rain parts of LI, NJ coast. 

All dependent on whether the flow turns wsw at 500 per the GEFS over LI or never backs to more than 280 (EC op).  Since we're still at D5-6..I'm leaning NAEFS with contributions from the EPS/GEFS and 2" up to I84 and potentially a swath of 3-4" near ice change zone in NJ.

 I'm staying with the original topic til I'm sure it's south. NAEFS (GEPS) will have to back off.  Right now, I've no certainty of that.  Will check back late afternoon. Have a day.

 

[wdrag]

Good thing we can enjoy some of the snow this morning: 06z/20 GEFS is a disaster... relatively dry through much of Jan.  Have my doubts but it's just another set of options and imo, needs to be treated with consideration but  not gospel. Once I see the GEPS dump this threaded event, then I'm convinced.  Think it's all based on the backing wind at 500MB (short wave strength) coming through NyS-PA-LI 15-26th. If predominantly 270 or 280... not good. All I can do is monitor and accept the future trends. 

[MJO812]

This storm for the 26th looks more like a SWFE to a  which usually trends north. We finally have blocking on our side so this will not get as far north. Question becomes where is the fine line.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This storm for the 26th looks more like a SWFE to a  which usually trends north. We finally have blocking on our side so this will not get as far north. Question becomes where is the fine line.

Until proven otherwise this is your "fine line" IMO 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Until proven otherwise this is your "fine line" IMO 

5 days out and we know how the models are

[NEG NAO]

Just now, MJO812 said:

5 days out and we know how the models are

Yes of course - thats why I said until proven otherwise - need to weaken the block a little BUT also need to keep the cold enough air in place - thread the needle event right now the hole of the needle looks to be south of us......they are overdue for a SECS from Philly /south Jersey to Northern VA

[MJO812]

Feb 2010 and Jan 2016 vibes mini version

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS 

[NEG NAO]

[ILoveWinter]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Feb 2010 and Jan 2016 vibes mini version

Rare to see a Philly special with nearly nothing in DC and a bit in NYC

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The perfect thread the needle for us would be the big -PNA trough out west pumping the SE Ridge enough to avoid suppression. But the -AO remaining just strong enough to prevent a mix and low tracking too far north. So my guess is that there will be some very interesting runs in the coming days. Since DCA to NYC has  never seen a significant snow with the rare -1.5 PNA and -1.5 or lower AO combination.  Hopefully, this event will push the bounds of what is possible for a snowstorm with such a -PNA.

Yeah I feel people in DC are getting too happy about this event given there is an SER...this is not 2/6/2010, even if there is blocking in place.  Its gonna be next to impossible to see a significant snow event that stays PHL south with the degree of SER we see (and lets face it, its ALWAYS underdone the last few years at this range).  I think this could easily be a setup where even this region goes snow to rain

[NEG NAO]

12Z  CMC

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I feel people in DC are getting too happy about this event given there is an SER...this is not 2/6/2010, even if there is blocking in place.  Its gonna be next to impossible to see a significant snow event that stays PHL south with the degree of SER we see (and lets face it, its ALWAYS underdone the last few years at this range).  I think this could easily be a setup where even this region goes snow to rain

But the last several years, we had a +NAO which allowed the SER to flex and that’s why we kept seeing the last minute “north trend” we never had a west based -NAO block pressing down. The flow is also screaming across the CONUS next week, this is only going to get so far north before it hits a brick wall. That block means business, it’s not going to let the SER flex and cause a north trend. I think the threat is suppressed, not trending further north 

[MJO812]

Ukie