Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[eduggs]

The GFS is still not very enthused about snow. 1-2" positive depth change N&W with little or nothing for the City or coast. As depicted, rain washes away what little does accumulate initially.

I think we can beat the GFS estimates, but it's a good starting point. We'll see how the radar looks tomorrow morning...

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The GFS is still not very enthused about snow. 1-2" positive depth change N&W with little or nothing for the City or coast. As depicted, rain washes away what little does accumulate initially.

I think we can beat the GFS estimates, but it's a good starting point. We'll see how the radar looks tomorrow morning...

Gfs drills the Catskills but ugly closer to the coast. Hope to get at least a 1-2 inches. 

[Rtd208]

Winter Weather Advisory cancelled here. The ice threat has diminished.

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Winter Weather Advisory cancelled here. The ice threat has diminished.

Hmmm? I'd be a little cautious about traveling untreated surfaces midday-tonight. 

[wdrag]

Good Tuesday morning.  A minor widespread event will begin in the NYS, NYC, NJ/PA portion of the forum 830AM-1230PM with a burst of snow-sleet. From there, it's modeling and our guesses. The start in the CT and remaining LI is probably 1130A-130P and there too a burst of snow to start. How its unfolds LI later today-tonight?  I do think it will get slippery there and I expect at least 1/2" snow NYC-LI possibly 2-3" in spots of LI NYC by Noon Wednesday, though I might be on the high side.  The NAM3K sounding doesn't look very warm to me and its significantly colder than the GFS.  So, it's all yours.

Have added the following graphics: 

1) NWS 5AM snowfall forecast,

2) he 00z/25 SPC HREF  glaze forecast (might be too high on the northern edge which looks all snow sleet to me),

3) the NWS 08z/25 ensemble prob for 1+" of snow, f

4) the NWS 08z/25 ensemble prob for measurable freezing rain,

5) the SPC HREF snow forecast (see legend for amounts 1"+) and

6) finally the 06z/25 NAM3K forecast for Sparta NJ giving an idea of how cold this forecast is...possbily a little robust on qpf.

All yours. Will be off line 1215P-330P.

 

[lee59]

Sun breaking thru the clouds here

[Brian5671]

30/18 here-will take awhile to moisten the column.

[lee59]

Cloudy here, 32 degrees. Precip scattered on radar. Not to impressive at this point.

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Cloudy here, 32 degrees. Precip scattered on radar. Not to impressive at this point.

That was expected, it's not expected to fill in until around noon but honestly with what the NAM is showing I am not sure it will be more than snow showers/showers for NYC and points south.  

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

That was expected, it's not expected to fill in until around noon but honestly with what the NAM is showing I am not sure it will be more than snow showers/showers for NYC and points south.  

marginal temps too-will have a hard time sticking on anything other than colder surfaces

[SnoSki14]

Non-event for many. Already 35F, radar looks crappy and HRRR shows nothing.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Non-event for many. Already 35F, radar looks crappy and HRRR shows nothing.

The radar was supposed to look crappy and temps are about as forecasted so everything going according to plan but agree this will be a non event for many 

[NJwx85]

Snow should start between Noon and 1PM from West to East.

[Brian5671]

HRRR is mostly rain city on south

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR is mostly rain city on south

Is it rain or lack of precip?

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Is it rain or lack of precip?

It has the city hanging on the edge of sleet, freezing rain, rain and snow.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It has the city hanging on the edge of sleet, freezing rain, rain and snow.

Makes sense that’s what we’ve been expecting 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Is it rain or lack of precip?

both-not much precip and what falls is sleet or rain...

[HVSnowLover]

RGEM still looks kind of decent from Central Park northward so a bit of a short-range model battle I guess (battle in terms of nothing vs 2 inches lol)  

[RU848789]

Snowing here in Metuchen at 34F with a whole dusting on the ground, lol.  Reports of rain south of the Raritan and SW into Mercer and sleet/snow north of the Raritan and in places like New Hope.  

[jm1220]

Near the city and coast, be happy if what comes adds up to an inch. The colder models backed off somewhat which is what was expected, or precip diminished. 

[jm1220]

On another note this storm dropped 12-15” in SE Nebraska where snow amounts like this are extremely rare. That’s the equivalent of double that amount here in a storm. 

[Cfa]

Just started here, very brief period of small flurries before turning to mixed snow/sleet.

Temp is 35.

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Snowing here in Metuchen at 34F with a whole dusting on the ground, lol.  Reports of rain south of the Raritan and SW into Mercer and sleet/snow north of the Raritan and in places like New Hope.  

Snow intensity has increased to moderate with a whole 1/4" on the ground now.  The snow rain line also moved SE by 10-20 miles and is now down close to 195.  Maybe we can get 1" out of this after all.  Temps have also dropped to 32-33F with evaporation cooling of the column so we're getting accumulations on all surfaces - snow is way better than freezing rain.  

[Brian5671]

light snow here-melting on roads/driveways, accums on colder surfaces...31/25

[Cfa]

Light snow, no accumulation, temp 36.

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Snow intensity has increased to moderate with a whole 1/4" on the ground now.  The snow rain line also moved SE by 10-20 miles and is now down close to 195.  Maybe we can get 1" out of this after all.  Temps have also dropped to 32-33F with evaporation cooling of the column so we're getting accumulations on all surfaces - snow is way better than freezing rain.  

Been a mix of sleet and snow the last 45 minutes or so and we're up to a full 1/2" on the ground - we might need a SOE.  We're in a lull right now - supposed to be a few more hours of precip, but it looks pretty dry to our SW.  Down to 32F.  

[wdrag]

@donsutherland1 and others  (@bluewave etal) who may look at this predictive data a lot...   has the EPS or GEFS been better at LR predictions of the AO, NAO, PNA, EPO lets say at 10 days, and 16 days?

I see some differences in the these ensembles...the GEFS overall a little more favorable for winter.  

Not sure who said winter over?   Doesn't look that way to me yet into mid Feb.

 

Maybe it is over, and I don'/didn't realize it???

Thanks,

Walt

 

 

[sferic]

Liberty NY 3" OTG and still snowing albeit lightly Temp 23 degrees

[snowman19]

Gone to light drizzle here now, around 1 inch of snow total, still some sleet mixing in at times