Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[wdrag]

I can live with snowfall #'s presented here except it look s a little low CT.   I'd like more  snow but if sleet/freezing rain/rain depending on location get involved, then the big trim as posted herein.  From what I can tell this has slippery on all untreated surfaces almost from the start on Tuesday and a possible refreeze Tue night along the margins where it rises to 33-34F later day or eve.

 

I think the darker yellow ice #'s might be a touch high but jury out. Bottom line...some sleet or freeIng rain appears to be coming across NJ, LI (ice LI temp dependent.)

 

Back in the morning. 

[wdrag]

will start the obs nowcast thread at 5a Tue, for this minor event. Should be interesting midday. 

[wdrag]

Weather service collaboration should catch the bulk of these synoptic scale (low pressures) events, especially within 24 hours. 

[MJO812]

Getting interesting for NYC north

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I don't understand why all these maps are showing my area 3-4" while my NWS forecast is saying only up to 1" of snow/sleet?

The waa is coming from the WSW so places like Sussex may actually mix in the mid levels quicker than places further east.

[winterwx21]

The 18z HRRR sure looks good. 2 to 3 inches of snow for north-central NJ and NYC. Similar to the Euro. Hopefully NAM is off with the warmer solution.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Getting interesting for NYC north

Except it won’t be 10:1 ratio in the southern part of the 4-6 zone and probably counts sleet as snow? 

[wdrag]

10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Except it won’t be 10:1 ratio in the southern part of the 4-6 zone and probably counts sleet as snow? 

Agreed,,, tho i haven't seen the ptype...  there is a chance that 70% or more of this pcpn north of I80 will be all snow.  The only reason i see sleet in far nw NJ is that the saturated sounding after 00z is all below 700mb and min temp in that column about -7C. Maybe not enough ice nuclei for snow.  Uncertain but it's also all below freezing in Sparta.  The first 1-5 hours of this event may have some decent lift and snowfall rates of nearly 1/2"/hr before the mix. 

I don't know if anyone noticed, but a couple of models are increasing qpf across the forum and I think that will be right.  I think the EC and NAM are seeing developing low pressure late Tue s of 44025 and the associated cyclonic circulation may enhance qpf into the 0.3-0.5" range, esp LI.  The NAEFS is still down a little so no guarantee that the 18z EC/NAM  are correct.  Back tomorrow morning. 

[MJO812]

 

Models are starting to go back to the original  solution of a colder one. 

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Models are starting to go back to the original  solution of a colder one. 

I like between I80 and I84 right now with this. Should have some nice lift.

[EastonSN+]

[jm1220]

Could be interesting here on the north shore if these colder models have a clue. 18z EC was quite cold and would be 3-5” from here west into NYC but it’s also been too cold with other storms this winter such as 12/17. 

[MJO812]

[HVSnowLover]

NAM still not too interested in this tomorrow for NYC which is a bit of a red flag but it did at least get better than it’s last two runs 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM still not too interested in this tomorrow for NYC which is a bit of a red flag but it did at least get better than it’s last two runs 

Odd-just doesn't want any part of it-although the 3K Nam is a bit better...

[SnowGoose69]

The HRRR will tend to suck seeing sleet changeover so it’s probably wrong showing NYC staying snow as long as it is.  There isn’t THAT strong a WAA push in the mid levels with this so you can argue perhaps things could hold snow longer than expected but I still think it’s showing snow too long.  I’m more surprised still by the differing start times.  The RGEM Euro is 13-14Z, the NAM is 17 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR will tend to suck seeing sleet changeover so it’s probably wrong showing NYC staying snow as long as it is.  There isn’t THAT strong a WAA push in the mid levels with this so you can argue perhaps things could hold snow longer than expected but I still think it’s showing snow too long.  I’m more surprised still by the differing start times.  The RGEM Euro is 13-14Z, the NAM is 17 

That’s the difference maker because nyc chance of accumulating snow is at the start of the storm 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

That’s the difference maker because nyc chance of accumulating snow is at the start of the storm 

Temps are near 33 the whole day tomorrow in NYC. Its going to be close.

[MJO812]

Inverted trough possible on Wednesday?

[TriPol]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Inverted trough possible on Wednesday?

Nor'Lun?

[SnoSki14]

I'll be shocked to get anywhere close to an inch. Looks like mostly a sleet/freezing rain affair south of I-80.

Temps will hover near freezing but ground is still cold. 

[HVSnowLover]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Temps are near 33 the whole day tomorrow in NYC. Its going to be close.

Yes but precip is light after initial burst and mid level issues so for actual real snow it’s going to be in the initial burst 

[snywx]

Looks like another 3-5” event for us up in the I-84 corridor

[HVSnowLover]

RGEM is a mix for the city and moderate snow for the suburbs with the initial burst and then light rain for the city and light snow in the suburbs 

[MJO812]

Icon

[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon

Take 40% of that for a better estimate of model forecast snow accumulations locally.

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Take 40% of that for a better estimate of model forecast snow accumulations locally.

Agree although I think the light blue zone may get the best rates with the initial burst, ecm has a similar zone. 40% of 4-6 is like 2-3 which I think would be possible if the colder/wetter models verify 

[eduggs]

The 0z RGEM is pretty snowy tomorrow, esp. I-78 north. Solid advisory snowfall.  Subtle but significant trends today!

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree although I think the light blue zone may get the best rates with the initial burst, ecm has a similar zone. 

The Stormvista maps count everything except plain rain as accumulated snow at 10:1. The EC map I saw earlier was similarly overdone. But today's guidance has increased expected snowfall for the immediate metro area for sure.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The Stormvista maps count everything except plain rain as accumulated snow at 10:1. The EC map I saw earlier was similarly overdone. But today's guidance has increased expected snowfall for the immediate metro area for sure.

Yea 1-3 seems like a good bet. 2-4 with possible isolated spots higher north of the city