Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[HVSnowLover]

24 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Understand completely: May be the 12 and 18z 3K NAM can lock in on our qpf and types? That and RGEM HRDPS would be worthy of following.  EC already steady now on I80 north. 

The mid level warming I think is a real problem for most of the sub forum. The only savior could be if the initial push has any juice to it. 

[eduggs]

It snows for 36+ hrs in parts of eastern SNE on the NAM and GFS. The EC and CMC are less. Even 12 hours of light to moderate snow would make a pretty significant event. Kind of funny after most of the SNE forum was throwing in the towel over the weekend.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

The mid level warming I think is a real problem for most of the sub forum. The only savior could be if the initial push has any juice to it. 

We have all sorts of problems for this one. To my eye there's not a lot that looks good... except I guess an airmass that is marginally supportive of snow. We have to hope for modeling errors... a little more lift producing mechanisms, a little further south, and a little colder.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Axis of heaviest snow is going to be north of I-90 again. 84 north should see 2-3 maybe 4. Metro should see an inch but temps are a problem. 

[HVSnowLover]

14 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It snows for 36+ hrs in parts of eastern SNE on the NAM and GFS. The EC and CMC are less. Even 12 hours of light to moderate snow would make a pretty significant event. Kind of funny after most of the SNE forum was throwing in the towel over the weekend.

Who woulda have been predicted two days ago that  Boston would get more snow this week than NYC or DC this week but then who is really surprised

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

25 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Who woulda have been predicted two days ago that  Boston would get more snow this week than NYC or DC this week but then who is really surprised

Much better snow climate up there. They are generally a few degrees colder then us which makes all the difference in marginal storms. The best example being April 97

[HVSnowLover]

NAM is a disorganized mess tomorrow 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM is a disorganized mess tomorrow 

Looks like snow/sleet/rain showers depending on locale....meh.  3K is a little better north of the city

[HVSnowLover]

RGEM is a little more juiced, looks ok north of the city 

[Jeff Grann]

37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like snow/sleet/rain showers depending on locale....meh.  3K is a little better north of the city

5-6" in Eastern Orange County in the Hudson Highlands still on 3k.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

RGEM is a little more juiced, looks ok north of the city 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Who woulda have been predicted two days ago that  Boston would get more snow this week than NYC or DC this week but then who is really surprised

Boston has the much higher climo snow amount for a reason-many more ways for them to snow. Doesn’t make it any less frustrating but can’t do anything about it. 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Boston has the much higher climo snow amount for a reason. Doesn’t make it any less frustrating but can’t do anything about it. 

Right but supposedly this was a supressed cold pattern lol. 

[binbisso]

Ukie also came in with more qpf. 2 to 4" on the snow maps. The trend on 12z models is greater waa snows

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Ukie also came in with more qpf. 2 to 4" on the snow maps. The trend on 12z models is greater waa snows

Yes for north of nyc but precip type still an issue for immediate nyc metro.  Hope the wetter trend is for real and at least some places in our sub forum get some fun 

[HVSnowLover]

If 12z euro backs up wetter trend may see wwa issued for interior portions of our region 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Who woulda have been predicted two days ago that  Boston would get more snow this week than NYC or DC this week but then who is really surprised

 

37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Boston has the much higher climo snow amount for a reason-many more ways for them to snow. Doesn’t make it any less frustrating but can’t do anything about it. 

You're talking about three distinctly different climates for the three cities. Washington DC averages 15 inches of snow a season, NYC averages double that or 30 inches a season, and Boston 60% more than NYC or 48 inches. Boston has a snowfall averages more in line with the HV.

[crossbowftw3]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If 12z euro backs up wetter trend may see wwa issued for interior portions of our region 

We may not need them here given that this would be over a longer duration though 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

 

You're talking about three distinctly different climates for the three cities. Washington DC averages 15 inches of snow a season, NYC averages double that or 30 inches a season, and Boston 60% more than NYC or 48 inches. Boston has a snowfall averages more in line with the HV.

that's why I laugh when people say "wow the posters in the NE forum are excited!"   Means little further south in NYC 

[crossbowftw3]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's why I laugh when people say "wow the posters in the NE forum are excited!"   Means little further south in NYC 

Sometimes I still get a little angered when Boston gets more snow during a given event than even we do in the Catskills/HV 

[coastalplainsnowman]

4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Sometimes I still get a little angered when Boston gets more snow during a given event than even we do in the Catskills/HV 

Years ago on a predecessor weather forum I put up a poll geared toward my fellow Long Islanders, asking which would they rather prefer:

Option 1: Be in the jackpot of a Mid Atlantic / New England storm where LI gets 10" (the max amount for the given storm) and Boston gets 5.

Option 2:  Get 15" of snow in a Mid Atlantic / New England storm, but Boston gets 2 feet.

Credit to their honesty, most chose option 1.  

[winterwx21]

Euro definitely just came in colder. Gets 2 inches of snow down close to NYC and into north-central NJ now. Would be nice to see a late colder trend today into tonight.

[Brian5671]

Euro is 2-4 inches north of the city...1-2 in the city and LI and not much south of the city-maybe a coating then rain.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is 2-4 inches north of the city...1-2 in the city and LI and not much south of the city-maybe a coating then rain.

So we are basically are back where we started with this a few days ago. 

[hudsonvalley21]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

So we are basically are back where we started with this a few days ago. 

It appears that we will have WWA advisory amounts north of NYC. Models are coming to a basic agreement now. 

[HVSnowLover]

17 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Years ago on a predecessor weather forum I put up a poll geared toward my fellow Long Islanders, asking which would they rather prefer:

Option 1: Be in the jackpot of a Mid Atlantic / New England storm where LI gets 10" (the max amount for the given storm) and Boston gets 5.

Option 2:  Get 15" of snow in a Mid Atlantic / New England storm, but Boston gets 2 feet.

Credit to their honesty, most chose option 1.  

Yes there is something too this I’ll be honest I’m glad the late week storm is way south and weak or it woulda been way more painful 

[crossbowftw3]

22 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Years ago on a predecessor weather forum I put up a poll geared toward my fellow Long Islanders, asking which would they rather prefer:

Option 1: Be in the jackpot of a Mid Atlantic / New England storm where LI gets 10" (the max amount for the given storm) and Boston gets 5.

Option 2:  Get 15" of snow in a Mid Atlantic / New England storm, but Boston gets 2 feet.

Credit to their honesty, most chose option 1.  

Option 1 all the way even here, option 2 would just lead to a 2014-Type scenario where Boston gets multiple 20+” storms in the same month

[HVSnowLover]

35 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Sometimes I still get a little angered when Boston gets more snow during a given event than even we do in the Catskills/HV 

Honestly dynamics favor for NE for big storms. The Catskills/interior HV will stay snow way better than SNE in marginal storms but in terms of big storms NE gets them the most. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

36 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Sometimes I still get a little angered when Boston gets more snow during a given event than even we do in the Catskills/HV 

Well two things, the Catskills average a lot more snow per season than Boston, and of course these things work both ways, but everyone forgets about the time they cashed in, only about the time they missed. The extreme case in point of course is the February 25-26 2010 storm. In orange county where I am I received 35 inches, Hunter mountain in the Catskills got close to five feet, Boston a lot of rain.

[Snowlover11]

honestly i’d take an inch and run with it, im liking the colder trend, we shall see. maybe can sneak 2-3”