Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[sussexcountyobs]

Everyone always wishes for blocking, blocking, blocking. Well, you got it. In our area, if the rain isn't  close by, chances are the big snow isn't either. 9 times out of10.

[hudsonvalley21]

8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

12 z NAM looks terrible.

18z has a slight uptick. N & W of NYC

 

[terrapin8100]

18 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Can anyone post a Mt. Holly snow map?

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, terrapin8100 said:

 

Thanks.

[HVSnowLover]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep and when you factor in the mid-level warm nose and boundary layer issues, weak lift profiles, marginal temps, those 10:1 ratio snowmaps are seriously flawed, this is a general 1-2 spot 3 inch snowfall event before p-type issues. Weak sauce for the metro area. But like you said, consider this a win and enjoy

I’ve been using kuchera maps which have less an inch for most of the city, about 1-2 inches just NW of the city. City might get a few inches but will need a burst of banding to do it (due to all the issues you mentioned)

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yep and when you factor in the mid-level warm nose and boundary layer issues, weak lift profiles, marginal temps, those 10:1 ratio snowmaps are seriously flawed, this is a general 1-2 spot 3 inch snowfall event before p-type issues. Weak sauce for the metro area. But like you said, consider this a win and enjoy

If the GFS is close to right many areas may struggle to put down an inch. The axis of best snow looks to once again set up well north of most of us. It could be the CPA to BGM to ALB corridor again... or possibly closer to I-84. This is looking like a nowcast pray for a mesoscale banded feature situation. The regional synoptics are just not favorable for much more than occasional periods of light snow (which could turn to sleet or rain).

[wdrag]

Will reassess tomorrow morning.  I'm not changing from this morning. Very difficult for me to see avoiding an advisory event for much of the forum except parts of LI and the portions se of I95. The ice mix would be the key component s of I80.  Regarding the rest of the area... I think this entire shortwave process is delayed 18-24 hours from when this topic was initiated, for ejection delay out of the Rockies and it's in my opinion stronger.  So the topic start end time will probably end up wrong by 18-24 hours too soon, but it looks cold to me with convergence in the isobars, and possible trowel back from the ocean into ne PA on Wednesday and so periods of precip, generally freezing or frozen inland through Wednesday. NYC I think will see measurable snow. Maybe the 00z/25 guidance will sway me down but I don't like the GGEM and RGEM b being pretty decent n of I80. The only thing I'd change on my expectations is to spread decent snowfall across all of CT and I90 and looks to me like 2+ eastern CT I90 for starters.  Back in the morning to rereview. Thanks for all the feedback on this topic. 

[HVSnowLover]

16 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Will reassess tomorrow morning.  I'm not changing from this morning. Very difficult for me to see avoiding an advisory event for much of the forum except parts of LI and the portions se of I95. The ice mix would be the key component s of I80.  Regarding the rest of the area... I think this entire shortwave process is delayed 18-24 hours from when this topic was initiated, for ejection delay out of the Rockies and it's in my opinion stronger.  So the topic start end time will probably end up wrong by 18-24 hours too soon, but it looks cold to me with convergence in the isobars, and possible trowel back from the ocean into ne PA on Wednesday and so periods of precip, generally freezing or frozen inland through Wednesday. NYC I think will see measurable snow. Maybe the 00z/25 guidance will sway me down but I don't like the GGEM and RGEM b being pretty decent n of I80. The only thing I'd change on my expectations is to spread decent snowfall across all of CT and I90 and looks to me like 2+ eastern CT I90 for starters.  Back in the morning to rereview. Thanks for all the feedback on this topic. 

Normally I’d agree a long duration event that starts cold is an advisory event but the precip is just so weak.

[eduggs]

The 18z was a discouraging 5 day GFS run. The forecast QPF distribution is actually somewhat reminiscent of the snowfall distribution so far this year, at least north of the Mason Dixon line. The GFS might be too dry locally. Other guidance is more encouraging. But I don't think the GFS should be ignored.

[eduggs]

0z RGEM - Surface low to Rochester with steady snows to Albany and Worchester. Light sleet and then rain into NENJ and Westchester. Quite a change from a day and a half ago. Yet another potential event in a long series of events trending away from us in the short term.

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

0z RGEM - Surface low to Rochester with steady snows to Albany and Worchester. Light sleet and then rain into NENJ and Westchester. Quite a change from a day and a half ago. Yet another potential event in a long series of events trending away from us in the short term.

It has a little front end snow at the start for NYC metro but the idea of an all snow event is over 

[eduggs]

We lost the RGEM. And no guarantees this is done trending.

[HVSnowLover]

Gfs is congrats adirondacks to northern NE and no accumulation south of I287. For the last two winters if it can trend worse it will trend worse you can’t make this stuff up. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Gfs is congrats adirondacks to northern NE and no accumulation south of I287 for the last two winters if it can trend worse it will trend worse you can’t make this stuff up. 

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

if this system can trend north the one following can too - think about it....

I wouldnt count on it, gfs even misses DC now 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Gfs is congrats adirondacks to northern NE and no accumulation south of I287 for the last two winters if it can trend worse it will trend worse you can’t make this stuff up. 

and the late week system is even more suppressed - can't make that up either and we are stuck in the middle with next to nothing

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

and the late week system is even more suppressed - can't make that up either and we are stuck in the middle with next to nothing

Of course it somehow finds a way to snow in Boston though 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and the late week system is even more suppressed - can't make that up either and we are stuck in the middle with next to nothing

Yep-essentially split screwed here with system 1 going north of us and warming most of us up for what falls to be non snow and system 2 suppressed to crap. Good times.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Of course it somehow finds a way to snow in Boston though 

Looks like an inverted trof and some easterly flow - ocean enhancement. 

[Snowlover11]

welp.

[HVSnowLover]

Looks like we are moving toward 1-3 flakes not inches but not for the reasons we though yesterday 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Looks like we are moving toward 1-3 flakes not inches but not for the reasons we though yesterday 

Canadian is the same - what happened to all the blocking ?

[HVSnowLover]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Canadian is the same - what happened to all the blocking ?

Not sure sort of like what happened to all the confluence in December? I guess it snows where it wants to snow. 

[wdrag]

635 AM Monday Jan 25: Added two graphics for the coming extensive minor snow-ice-snow event with main impacts LI-NYC-I95 corridor northwestward to the Adirondacks and New England

Could be sneaky icy along the coast. 

mPING will be helpful. 

NWS snowfall forecast map added from 5AM this morning (NYC-LI generally less than 1") and also the probabilistic chance of .01 freezing rain. 

Mostly a Tuesday-Tuesday night snow-sleet event changing to freezing/rain-rain during the afternoon I80 southward possibly going back to snow or flurries Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Advisories already out near DC. 

Expect it will be briefly slippery everywhere in our forum for a time Tuesday, and probably Tuesday night-Wednesday morning LI-NYC-I80 northward, especially interior.

Expect plowing small amount amounts of snow entire I84 corridor with road treatments necessary most of the remaining portion of our forum except possibly just southeast of the I95 corridor. 

Weak boundary layer winds with a north-northeast drift will probably assist on keeping temps on the colder side of the available guidance.

Storm impact of all snow will be larger I84 northward and inclusive of I90 to Boston with decent amounts. 

This keeps this brief and we'll all be monitoring the models.  Hopefully there are no slips/falls/accidents Tuesday-Tuesday night on all untreated surfaces.

[bluewave]

This is a great example of why it’s such a struggle to get a significant snow near the coast in a  -PNA -AO pattern. The -PNA pumped the SE Ridge a little more last minute. So the primary is rolling further north now. Had the -PNA been slightly weaker, then the -AO would have suppressed the storm more.This is why the analog composite that I posted over a week back for -PNA -AO had mostly small snow events if anything at all. Don also did a great job with his excellent -AO -PNA stats. There is no substitute for a good +PNA -AO -EPO during a Niña-like strong Pacific Jet pattern. 

[wdrag]

Will start an OBS thread for this event (or non in the eyes of many here in NYC, but climo it is)... probably starting this obs-nowcast thread at 7P tonight. 

[HVSnowLover]

44 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Will start an OBS thread for this event (or non in the eyes of many here in NYC, but climo it is)... probably starting this obs-nowcast thread at 7P tonight. 

Models ticked back a little colder at 6z. Still don’t feel too good about this for nyc metro or really anyone south of I84.

[wdrag]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Models ticked back a little colder at 6z. Still don’t feel too good about this for nyc metro or really anyone south of I84.

Understand completely: May be the 12 and 18z 3K NAM can lock in on our qpf and types? That and RGEM HRDPS would be worthy of following.  EC already steady now on I80 north. 

[MJO812]

I would be happy with an inch tomorrow 

[eduggs]

I think there could be some sneakily big totals in parts of SNE. The inverted trof feature has shifted to that area and moisture appears to linger between the two systems. Eastern areas also have the advantage of ocean enhancement. It looks like a potentially long duration event over there with a fluff factor. Exactly what we were looking at locally 2 days ago. Those mesoscale features are fickle. But for now eastern SNE went from zilch to WSW and we went from plowable snow to freezing drizzle advisory. Bad luck I suppose.