Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM has nothing for nyc/LI and north of NYC 

shouldn't take the NAM seriously past 60 hours IMO - but you can get an idea why this system seems to be losing moisture as it approaches the east coast ........(more then 1 reason IMO)

[Rjay]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

If most of the 12Z guidance shows a reasonable chance of accumulating snow in most of the metro from the later week 2nd event  can WALT  start a new thread since  the event would only be 5 - 6 days away ?

Anyone can if they want.  We really need the eps on board though. 

[eduggs]

Model soundings show dry about 700mb. Upper level divergence and lift are weak. Vorticity is weakening. There's just not a lot of modeled support for precipitation generating mechanisms east of CPA. Maybe things moisten up in the short term. Or maybe a few areas get lucky with isolated banding. Otherwise I think we are looking at a minor event.

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Model soundings show dry about 700mb. Upper level divergence and lift are weak. Vorticity is weakening. There's just not a lot of modeled support for precipitation generating mechanisms east of CPA. Maybe things moisten up in the short term. Or maybe a few areas get lucky with isolated banding. Otherwise I think we are looking at a minor event.

I think the question is minor vs non existent if trends hold correct

[HeadInTheClouds]

Don't worry, the ICON will save us. 

[HVSnowLover]

11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I think the question is minor vs non existent if trends hold correct

Agree I’m worried this is turning into 1-3 flakes instead of inches 

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Don't worry, the ICON will save us. 

The ICON just saved Albany 

[HeadInTheClouds]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The ICON just saved Albany 

This is true, lol. Mid-hudson valley by me too. 

[HVSnowLover]

Gfs very delayed but ends up not that bad 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Gfs very delayed but ends up not that bad 

GGEM misses us to the south with the first wave of precip monday night, but it actually gives us a decent period of snow for late morning to early afternoon tuesday. Haven't seen a snow map yet, but it looked decent on the color loop.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

GGEM misses us to the south with the first wave of precip monday night, but it actually gives us a decent period of snow for late morning to early afternoon tuesday. Haven't seen a snow map yet, but it looked decent on the color loop.

 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

I’ll take that at this point 

[SnowGoose69]

The main system isn’t gonna do it.  It’s that 2nd surface reflection that goes up into the Great Lakes and cuts ESE after 84 hours that will do it here.  The problem is that might go far enough north that the metro gets rain.  It all depends how the block and confluence work.  At this stage I think we can say the main event before that doesn’t get much above PHL, if that.   

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The main system isn’t gonna do it.  It’s that 2nd surface reflection that goes up into the Great Lakes and cuts ESE after 84 hours that will do it here.  The problem is that might go far enough north that the metro gets rain.  It all depends how the block and confluence work.  At this stage I think we can say the main event before that doesn’t get much above PHL, if that.   

Hopefully the 12z GGEM is right about it being a few inches of snow here for midday tuesday.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hopefully the 12z GGEM is right about it being a few inches of snow here for midday tuesday.

All the models seem to be on the train of that weak surface low cutting across and bringing snow.  Fine details will take awhile to hammer out.  I don’t think it’ll be to get anywhere near as far north as the ICON has it.  The more south it goes the more chance we have too that it could pull in some Atlantic moisture to throw more confusion into things 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2021 at 9:03 AM, bluewave said:

This is a truly odd set up. Probably the first time a -1 or lower PNA trough out West went against a 5 SD 500 mb west based block this time of year. So details with this one may come down to the wire.

 

 

isnt that sort of an omega block?

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

12Z runs have been better than 00z. I still think 1-3/2-4 type event. Lets see what Ukie and Euro say. 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The main system isn’t gonna do it.  It’s that 2nd surface reflection that goes up into the Great Lakes and cuts ESE after 84 hours that will do it here.  The problem is that might go far enough north that the metro gets rain.  It all depends how the block and confluence work.  At this stage I think we can say the main event before that doesn’t get much above PHL, if that.   

but the mix line probably wont make it farther north than the central Jersey coast?

 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

12Z runs have been better than 00z. I still think 1-3/2-4 type event. Lets see what Ukie and Euro say. 

Focusing on a different system now so this is becoming a snow threat nyc on north for Tue afternoon-Tuesday night 

[SnowGoose69]

The UKMET flopping continues.  It’s 12Z run now looks closer to the Icon for Monday and Tuesday than the NAM like it’s 00Z run did lol 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKMET flopping continues.  It’s 12Z run now looks closer to the Icon for Monday and Tuesday than the NAM like it’s 00Z run did lol 

Not that I trust the Ukmet that much but what precip type is it showing? 

[lee59]

To me the storm to watch is not the weak one early in the week, but the potential real powerhouse later in the week, that may pass to our south.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not that I trust the Ukmet that much but what precip type is it showing? 

at 72 hours it’s well north with both the overrunning precipitation over the MA into central and southern NJ as well as the second surface feature over the Great Lakes.  No precipitation maps after 72 but I think the UKMET from 84-102 would probably be rainy for the metro like the icon with most of the snow up in the Hudson valley and north 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not that I trust the Ukmet that much but what precip type is it showing? 

 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

To me the storm to watch is not the weak one early in the week, but the potential real powerhouse later in the week, that may pass to our south.

Sometimes the weak ones come through more than the powerhouses though 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

Thanks for posting, it’s not awful

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Thanks for posting, it’s not awful

Yeah as I expected more ICON like with the associated back trailing low Tuesday.  I just don’t think it’ll end up that far north.  I would think just north of NYC is probably the place to be with that.  That event has potential to surprise but we won’t have any details til inside 48. 

[EastonSN+]

28 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Thanks for posting, it’s not awful

Looks like more of a temp thing on the ukmet.

[HVSnowLover]

12Z Euro looks better (seems the 12Z consensus is moving back toward at least a 1-3 inch event)

[winterwx21]

Euro looks pretty good. A few inches of snow for the NYC area tuesday afternoon into tuesday night.