Snow-ice-rain for the NYC forum 7PM Mon 1/25-6AM Wednesday 1/27

[MJO812]

  On 1/22/2021 at 8:58 PM, winterwx21 said:

As dry as 12z Euro is, it still gives most of the area 2 to 3 inches. We'll gladly take an advisory level event after getting so little snow most of January.

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Definitely 

[SnoSki14]

The Euro ain't as good as it used to be. It was too cold with the Dec event. 

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/22/2021 at 8:45 PM, Snowlover11 said:

rightfully so look at the dewpoints

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Low dew points at least means temp in the 20s so whatever falls sticks 

[crossbowftw3]

  On 1/22/2021 at 10:12 PM, HVSnowLover said:

Low dew points at least means temp in the 20s so whatever falls sticks 

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and stays because we're entering the coldest stretch of this winter after that.

[sussexcountyobs]

Wow! 3 hrs since the last comment on this event.

[crossbowftw3]

  On 1/23/2021 at 2:19 AM, sussexcountyobs said:

Wow! 3 hrs since the last comment on this event.

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General malaise that only the genius possess and the insane lament? 

We’re definitely teetering on the edge of a light event or something more moderate with some warning level totals, also with some perhaps making it into the city proper. I’d think some more eyes would be paying attention here.

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/23/2021 at 2:19 AM, sussexcountyobs said:

Wow! 3 hrs since the last comment on this event.

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This trended today more toward a minor event but still potential for a moderate event 

[sussexcountyobs]

I'm going to put on my Winnie the Pooh footie pajamas,  hug today's models, and cozy up in the bed under my blankie. 

[winterwx21]

NAM just came in with a pretty good hit. Major improvement.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

  On 1/23/2021 at 2:41 AM, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm going to put on my Winnie the Pooh footie pajamas,  hug today's models, and cozy up in the bed under my blankie. 

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TMI

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/23/2021 at 2:51 AM, winterwx21 said:

NAM just came in with a pretty good hit. Major improvement.

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[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/23/2021 at 2:51 AM, winterwx21 said:

NAM just came in with a pretty good hit. Major improvement.

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Yea improved over previous runs, that northern cutoff very sharp 

[jm1220]

NAM with a big slug of precip that comes in and then gets eaten by dry air and shunted out like other models. It's just more robust with that front end so it's a sharp cutoff between a few inches and nothing. 

Dry air really tries to push down as the low is approaching. Dewpoints in CT/Hudson Valley are in the low single digits when the snow is coming through PA. 

[SnowGoose69]

I wouldn’t trust snow maps a ton on this event because despite the air mass because okay the rates might be so low that you don’t end up with the accumulation you think.  It does appear that the core of the snow might fall at night or early in the day which does help 

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/23/2021 at 3:07 AM, jm1220 said:

NAM with a big slug of precip that comes in and then gets eaten by dry air and shunted out like other models. It's just more robust with that front end so it's a sharp cutoff between a few inches and nothing. 

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BTW  since it only goes out to 84 hours the precip still has at least several hours remaining and that snow map is incomplete - BUT the NAM is still out of its most accurate range of less then 60 hours

[jm1220]

  On 1/23/2021 at 3:52 AM, NEG NAO said:

BTW  since it only goes out to 84 hours the precip still has at least several hours remaining and that snow map is incomplete - BUT the NAM is still out of its most accurate range of less then 60 hours

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Maybe but it would be light. The dry air wins out and dries up the snow shield. Verbatim it hits an absolute brick wall. When you see that WNW-ESE shunt on these type of events in PA through this area you know that brick wall means business. 

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS 

[MJO812]

Incoming  2nd wave 

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/23/2021 at 4:09 AM, MJO812 said:

Incoming  2nd wave 

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Now this is getting complicated for next week

[SnoSki14]

  On 1/23/2021 at 4:09 AM, MJO812 said:

Incoming  2nd wave 

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Yup watch that one.

[NEG NAO]

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2021 at 4:15 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Yup watch that one.

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Signal is there with the tellies  going the opposite direction 

[jm1220]

  On 1/23/2021 at 4:12 AM, NEG NAO said:

Now this is getting complicated for next week

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That'll definitely be a nice event for someone and quite vigorous but it'll again hit the brick wall somewhere. You'll have to see where the upper level flow goes from SW (moist) to westerly (dry confluence) to see where the snow makes it to. It actually goes ESE or SE after it forms near the VA capes. Essentially a big bowling ball you might see in March. Nothing to force it poleward which might be a good thing since it would then turn into a cutter and washout. 

[SnoSki14]

The GFS looks like an early spring bowling ball. 

Very unusual to see this in late Jan.

[jm1220]

Verbatim at the time the 144hr storm is happening there's a lobe of added energy coming down from the 50-50 type low in Canada which reinforces the confluence and shunts it out or even SE. It would be good if that lobe was weaker or timed differently. That's how we got horribly screwed on 2/6/10, worst possible timed added confluence. 

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/23/2021 at 4:20 AM, jm1220 said:

Verbatim at the time the 144hr storm is happening there's a lobe of added energy coming down from the 50-50 type low in Canada which reinforces the confluence and shunts it out or even SE. It would be good if that lobe was weaker or timed differently. 

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only 1 model run of 1 model and still many days away................

[NEG NAO]

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/23/2021 at 4:30 AM, NEG NAO said:

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Ugly trends tonight (except NAM) 

[NEG NAO]

  On 1/23/2021 at 4:32 AM, HVSnowLover said:

Ugly trends tonight (except NAM) 

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Might not be since the guidance has been inconsistent all week and now the GFS and CMC are suggesting the early week event is the appetizer with only a couple inches snow and then a couple days later comes the main event and the possibility of phasing and a MECS

[HVSnowLover]

  On 1/23/2021 at 4:37 AM, NEG NAO said:

Might not be since the guidance has been inconsistent all week and now the GFS and CMC are suggesting the early week event is the appetizer with only a couple inches snow and then a couple days later comes the main event and the possibility of phasing and a MECS

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Yea for now it’s a bit too far SE but obviously bears close watching