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January 16 2021 - Inland runner Rain/Snow/Wind


Baroclinic Zone
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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

His area should do well with the lower midlevels having SE flow but more like E to ENE in the lowest 3000 feet. 

So you get that midlevel cooling from the Presidentials but keep the lowest 100mb on a favorable ENE flow so you aren’t drying/warming things below 3000 feet. You are actually upsloping in that lowest level. 

Yeah I wasn’t sure how that spot would do if it was more SSEly at all levels like two days ago when the low went up the CT River Valley.  I generally think if he’s real windy, he’s getting some better mixing as that’s usually what happens around these parts.  Hard to get big gusts when the low level flow is upsloping.

The QPF numbers though are fairly obscene for that thump.  Could be a high end event.

I think back here the mountains will put up some decent totals but it’ll take 36 hours or so as it usually does between front end and upslope.  I could see Mansfield doing 12-18” total if it breaks right.  Still some sneaky warm layers floating around though at 750-850mb tomorrow, tough call.

 

9E4516E4-6944-434C-9708-CD5CE3C2325C.png

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45 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

You don’t think the Stratton area gets much snow? The base is 2k feet with a 4K foot peak? Point and click there is a good 10-20 from base to peak. 

I think those elevations get smoked pretty good down south.  10”+ possible.  They do well with enhanced lift on the eastern side of the southern Greens.

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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I wasn’t sure how that spot would do if it was more SSEly at all levels like two days ago when the low went up the CT River Valley.  I generally think if he’s real windy, he’s getting some better mixing as that’s usually what happens around these parts.  Hard to get big gusts when the low level flow is upsloping.

The QPF numbers though are fairly obscene for that thump.  Could be a high end event.

I think back here the mountains will put up some decent totals but it’ll take 36 hours or so as it usually does between front end and upslope.  I could see Mansfield doing 12-18” total if it breaks right.  Still some sneaky warm layers floating around though at 750-850mb tomorrow, tough call.

 

9E4516E4-6944-434C-9708-CD5CE3C2325C.png

Keep talkin' dirty.

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39 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

28.8° F with freezing drizzle. Not too concerned about it as the column is likely below freezing but not quite cold enough for nucleation in the SE flow upslope stratus deck. Getting increasingly breezy too. 

Yeah, that freezing drizzle has to be all low level stuff... you are primed with moisture and ready to go.  Once the deeper mid-level lift moves in, bet that’s good dense flakes.

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A friend described it accurately as an atmospheric tide going inland on SE flow (well up into Ontario/Quebec), and then getting blown out on a WNW flow.  The moisture will go one way, and then back the other way out to sea.  Those different motions will result in different precipitation patterns too.

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A friend described it accurately as an atmospheric tide going inland on SE flow (well up into Ontario/Quebec), and then getting blown out on a WNW flow.  The moisture will go one way, and then back the other way out to sea.  Those different motions will result in different precipitation patterns too.

Ixnay on the atmospheric tide stuff. That’s way to close to GYX’s words that trigger Phin. 

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28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Warm models are going up over the Berks while colder ones ride the climo preferred sw to ne route

Yeah we'll see. The warmth is up around H85. 12k NAM is definitely the warmest. Phin and Freak look fine, but I think Mitch to SkiMRG are the iffy areas. I think I lean toward the colder models, but I'd have caution flags.

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah we'll see. The warmth is up around H85. 12k NAM is definitely the warmest. Phin and Freak look fine, but I think Mitch to SkiMRG are the iffy areas. I think I lean toward the colder models, but I'd have caution flags.

High stakes out from N catskills toward N Berks

High stakes probably everywhere outside of the Loaf

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