DavisStraight Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I belonged to a ski club back in the early 80's, I remember it being a year like this and once we got up to the Loaf there was 3 feet of snow, not a banner year but decent pack up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Biggest takeaway is the robust signal In my trousers That’s why we call em weenie maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: His area should do well with the lower midlevels having SE flow but more like E to ENE in the lowest 3000 feet. So you get that midlevel cooling from the Presidentials but keep the lowest 100mb on a favorable ENE flow so you aren’t drying/warming things below 3000 feet. You are actually upsloping in that lowest level. Yeah I wasn’t sure how that spot would do if it was more SSEly at all levels like two days ago when the low went up the CT River Valley. I generally think if he’s real windy, he’s getting some better mixing as that’s usually what happens around these parts. Hard to get big gusts when the low level flow is upsloping. The QPF numbers though are fairly obscene for that thump. Could be a high end event. I think back here the mountains will put up some decent totals but it’ll take 36 hours or so as it usually does between front end and upslope. I could see Mansfield doing 12-18” total if it breaks right. Still some sneaky warm layers floating around though at 750-850mb tomorrow, tough call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 45 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: You don’t think the Stratton area gets much snow? The base is 2k feet with a 4K foot peak? Point and click there is a good 10-20 from base to peak. I think those elevations get smoked pretty good down south. 10”+ possible. They do well with enhanced lift on the eastern side of the southern Greens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 28.8° F with freezing drizzle. Not too concerned about it as the column is likely below freezing but not quite cold enough for nucleation in the SE flow upslope stratus deck. Getting increasingly breezy too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Lightening in NJ with those showers looking convective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I wasn’t sure how that spot would do if it was more SSEly at all levels like two days ago when the low went up the CT River Valley. I generally think if he’s real windy, he’s getting some better mixing as that’s usually what happens around these parts. Hard to get big gusts when the low level flow is upsloping. The QPF numbers though are fairly obscene for that thump. Could be a high end event. I think back here the mountains will put up some decent totals but it’ll take 36 hours or so as it usually does between front end and upslope. I could see Mansfield doing 12-18” total if it breaks right. Still some sneaky warm layers floating around though at 750-850mb tomorrow, tough call. Keep talkin' dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Still don’t get why the title of thread says inland runner when it’s not . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 39 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said: 28.8° F with freezing drizzle. Not too concerned about it as the column is likely below freezing but not quite cold enough for nucleation in the SE flow upslope stratus deck. Getting increasingly breezy too. Yeah, that freezing drizzle has to be all low level stuff... you are primed with moisture and ready to go. Once the deeper mid-level lift moves in, bet that’s good dense flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Still don’t get why the title of thread says inland runner when it’s not . Because the SLP doesn’t stay offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: I belonged to a ski club back in the early 80's, I remember it being a year like this and once we got up to the Loaf there was 3 feet of snow, not a banner year but decent pack up there. Many a year like that, no snow until you rounded the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Deleted my post...kinda catching up. 00z NAM is really warm in the low/mid levels. That LLJ really cranks right into VT. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Deleted my post...kinda catching up. 00z NAM is really warm in the low/mid levels. That LLJ really cranks right into VT. 3k is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Deleted my post...kinda catching up. 00z NAM is really warm in the low/mid levels. That LLJ really cranks right into VT. Yup This one will have some surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yup This one will have some surprises No one should be buying the 20" amounts being tossed out on the clown maps (even the 00z NAM). NNE will be happy with 6-10". We need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 The clown maps showing snow are just what they are in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 My P&C is now 9-17". Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Deleted my post...kinda catching up. 00z NAM is really warm in the low/mid levels. That LLJ really cranks right into VT. Warm models are going up over the Berks while colder ones ride the climo preferred sw to ne route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 A friend described it accurately as an atmospheric tide going inland on SE flow (well up into Ontario/Quebec), and then getting blown out on a WNW flow. The moisture will go one way, and then back the other way out to sea. Those different motions will result in different precipitation patterns too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: A friend described it accurately as an atmospheric tide going inland on SE flow (well up into Ontario/Quebec), and then getting blown out on a WNW flow. The moisture will go one way, and then back the other way out to sea. Those different motions will result in different precipitation patterns too. Ixnay on the atmospheric tide stuff. That’s way to close to GYX’s words that trigger Phin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Warm models are going up over the Berks while colder ones ride the climo preferred sw to ne route Yeah we'll see. The warmth is up around H85. 12k NAM is definitely the warmest. Phin and Freak look fine, but I think Mitch to SkiMRG are the iffy areas. I think I lean toward the colder models, but I'd have caution flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah we'll see. The warmth is up around H85. 12k NAM is definitely the warmest. Phin and Freak look fine, but I think Mitch to SkiMRG are the iffy areas. I think I lean toward the colder models, but I'd have caution flags. High stakes out from N catskills toward N Berks High stakes probably everywhere outside of the Loaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 The 00z v16 is absolutely crazy for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I think i would feel better at 1,500' and above for siggy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think i would feel better at 1,500' and above for siggy snow. I’ll be sitting on my porch at 1250’ staring longingly up the hill and at the snow cakes cars coming down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The 00z v16 is absolutely crazy for MBY. Good test for v15 vs v16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, mreaves said: I’ll be sitting on my porch at 1250’ staring longingly up the hill and at the snow cakes cars coming down. IDK bout that HREF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 That looks juicy , esp for S and Central Greens and Wildcat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 dusting from what is probably low level aggregates. 32.4. precip has currently stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Snowing @ Hunter Mtn https://www.huntermtn.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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