January 16 2021 - Inland runner Rain/Snow/Wind

[alex]

P&C has us at 7-15 through Sunday. That would make a big difference for winter sports

[PhineasC]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You back up north early?  Good choice.

LOL I wish. Coming up Sunday. I get there and here confused these days. Looks snowy Sunday and Monday too. Hope to arrive to a foot+ on the ground and still snowing. 

[PowderBeard]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's been a slight warming trend from yesterday....but I think S VT and maybe N Berks are in a good spot. Would be fun to be at Beast for this event to see if they can grab 8-10" of paste.

That 600' base and 1,500' summit always bite them. Upper half of the Thunderbolt should be great. 

[radarman]

9 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

That 600' base and 1,500' summit always bite them. Upper half of the Thunderbolt should be great. 

This. 

Unrelated to this event, but it's also almost like the east west running valley funnels in warm layers aloft sometimes.  It'll be pinging there and snowing north and south.  I suppose it probably relates to some relative lack of orographic lift locally such that cold air is not dragged down through shallow warm layers.  It's weird though.  Have always wondered if somehow the channel could extend off the ground.

At any rate I'm not too bullish for them.  S VT peaks moreso.  Glop for the base.

[amarshall]

Just got to the Loaf. GYX seems to have upped their totals here.

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[dryslot]

1 minute ago, amarshall said:

Just got to the Loaf. GYX seems to have upped their totals here.

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12"+

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

12"+

This seems like an ideal setup for them to overcome marginal layers. That deeper SE flow smacking into the terrain. 

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

This. 

Unrelated to this event, but it's also almost like the east west running valley funnels in warm layers aloft sometimes.  It'll be pinging there and snowing north and south.  I suppose it probably relates to some relative lack of orographic lift locally such that cold air is not dragged down through shallow warm layers.  It's weird though.  Have always wondered if somehow the channel could extend off the ground.

At any rate I'm not too bullish for them.  S VT peaks moreso.  Glop for the base.

I always forget how low they are. They “feel” higher because you are surrounded by pretty nice looking terrain but yeah...you basically don’t go uphill much at all from the center of Charlemont, the mountain is right there. 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This seems like an ideal setup for them to overcome marginal layers. That deeper SE flow smacking into the terrain. 

I always forget how low they are. They “feel” higher because you are surrounded by pretty nice looking terrain but yeah...you basically don’t go uphill much at all from the center of Charlemont, the mountain is right there. 

It is a great setup for them, They will do well up there.

[PowderBeard]

6 minutes ago, radarman said:

This. 

Unrelated to this event, but it's also almost like the east west running valley funnels in warm layers aloft sometimes.  It'll be pinging there and snowing north and south.  I suppose it probably relates to some relative lack of orographic lift locally such that cold air is not dragged down through shallow warm layers.  It's weird though.  Have always wondered if somehow the channel could extend off the ground.

At any rate I'm not too bullish for them.  S VT peaks moreso.  Glop for the base.

Always thought the Hoosac Range played a role in blocking it out too. 

[amarshall]

12"+

Bought our tickets last week gambling on the rain models. What a difference a week makes.

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[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, radarman said:

This. 

Unrelated to this event, but it's also almost like the east west running valley funnels in warm layers aloft sometimes.  It'll be pinging there and snowing north and south.  I suppose it probably relates to some relative lack of orographic lift locally such that cold air is not dragged down through shallow warm layers.  It's weird though.  Have always wondered if somehow the channel could extend off the ground.

At any rate I'm not too bullish for them.  S VT peaks moreso.  Glop for the base.

I think you will need to get up into at least central Vermont to see anything appreciable at the ski areas.  I coulld envision a lot of sleet from Berkshire East up through Stratton area. 
let’s see if tonight‘s runs of the mesos start punching mid-level warming up north faster. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Bought our tickets last week gambling on the rain models. What a difference a week makes.

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Head right for the king pine bowl first thing in the morning! 

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL I wish. Coming up Sunday. I get there and here confused these days. Looks snowy Sunday and Monday too. Hope to arrive to a foot+ on the ground and still snowing. 

I think you're plot there is in for a good dump.  You'll come home to some solid plow piles.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think you're plot there is in for a good dump.  You'll come home to some solid plow piles.

His area should do well with the lower midlevels having SE flow but more like E to ENE in the lowest 3000 feet. 

So you get that midlevel cooling from the Presidentials but keep the lowest 100mb on a favorable ENE flow so you aren’t drying/warming things below 3000 feet. You are actually upsloping in that lowest level. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

31 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Just got to the Loaf. GYX seems to have upped their totals here.

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Jelly

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, radarman said:

This. 

Unrelated to this event, but it's also almost like the east west running valley funnels in warm layers aloft sometimes.  It'll be pinging there and snowing north and south.  I suppose it probably relates to some relative lack of orographic lift locally such that cold air is not dragged down through shallow warm layers.  It's weird though.  Have always wondered if somehow the channel could extend off the ground.

At any rate I'm not too bullish for them.  S VT peaks moreso.  Glop for the base.

 

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This seems like an ideal setup for them to overcome marginal layers. That deeper SE flow smacking into the terrain. 

I always forget how low they are. They “feel” higher because you are surrounded by pretty nice looking terrain but yeah...you basically don’t go uphill much at all from the center of Charlemont, the mountain is right there. 

Funny how that works. I literally skied there a half dozen times a year since the year they upgraded in 1980. What Eric said is so true, just a short ride south towards Pete is a whole different climate and north towards Rowe is a mega snow area. I have driven thru heavy snow only to get to the Beast with rain or freezing rain. Strange place but when it dumps it dumps with the best. Of course the terrain at little Sunday River is hard to beat.

[dryslot]

18z euro

[greenmtnwx]

39 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think you will need to get up into at least central Vermont to see anything appreciable at the ski areas.  I coulld envision a lot of sleet from Berkshire East up through Stratton area. 
let’s see if tonight‘s runs of the mesos start punching mid-level warming up north faster. 

You don’t think the Stratton area gets much snow? The base is 2k feet with a 4K foot peak? Point and click there is a good 10-20 from base to peak. 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z euro

Marshall just whooped heard it here from the Loaf

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

You don’t think the Stratton area gets much snow? The base is 2k feet with a 4K foot peak? Point and click there is a good 10-20 from base to peak. 

Smoked

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, amarshall said:

Just got to the Loaf. GYX seems to have upped their totals here.

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Hope your thighs are in shape for Sierra Cement

[amarshall]

Marshall just whooped heard it here from the Loaf

The texts are flying. The bulge in the Lululemons is huge

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[amarshall]

Hope your thighs are in shape for Sierra Cement

Squats all week since the Christmas peleton

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[PhineasC]

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z euro

Wow very nice. 

[ineedsnow]

23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z euro

So close yet so far.. With we could shift that South 15 to 20 miles.. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Wow very nice. 

That map is such a weenie map .  
 

I am looking forward to see this one unfold, big thump of precip looks to slam W MA / S VT early am . Hope the mountains can score but that warm tongue at 775 is tickling .

At least someone will score , there is snow to track and weekend football 

 

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

So close yet so far.. With we could shift that South 15 to 20 miles.. 

I have seen this way to many times before, Actually have missed by less then 5 miles on some storms, Those hurt.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That map is such a weenie map .  
 

I am looking forward to see this one unfold, big thump of precip looks to slam W MA / S VT early am . Hope the mountains can score but that warm tongue at 775 is tickling .

At least someone will score , there is snow to track and weekend football 

 

Get up high and watch it fly.

[backedgeapproaching]

22 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

You don’t think the Stratton area gets much snow? The base is 2k feet with a 4K foot peak? Point and click there is a good 10-20 from base to peak. 

They will be fine IMO..Stratton and Bromley are both about 2k at the base.

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That map is such a weenie map .  
 

I am looking forward to see this one unfold, big thump of precip looks to slam W MA / S VT early am . Hope the mountains can score but that warm tongue at 775 is tickling .

At least someone will score , there is snow to track and weekend football 

 

I am expecting about half of what that clown map shows. Biggest takeaway is the robust signal.