MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Exactly. You don’t want the TPV over eastern Ontario or Quebec unless you want very cold and dry. And that is arctic air ahead of whatever storm forms. CAD is going to be supercharged. At this point, it’s just clear that there could be a high impact and long duration winter wx event late next week. I think that run would've been historic if it were one province over into Saskatchewan. That would place the high over western Ontario over into the eastern side and drill the CAD wedge even further south and east. I think at this point, the models are honing in on a reconsolidation of the PV over southern Canada, and it's just a matter of where at this point, cuz that will have downstream implications on the cold layer and amplification of the 5H ridge east of the Mississippi. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 when was the last prolonged ice event? This area doesn't do those often or well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Liquid with temps in the 20s Well somehow it formed a coastal. in the middle of a ridge with increasing heights. Not sure how it pulled that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, H2O said: when was the last prolonged ice event? This area doesn't do those often or well I think it was 2001, but my memory isn't close to some of the people on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, Amped said: Not liking this trend, models consistently underdoing the SE ridge in Day 5-10 timeframe. Best we can hope for is a thump, then a lot of rain. It’s not really about undergoing the SE ridge, it’s about where it dumps the big ULL. If you dump it was of lakes and far enough south you get an icon solution. More west like euro it’s maybe some front end to ice, drizzle. The ridge just responds to the placement of that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Amped said: It is good for the I81 crew. I 95 is getting mostly liquid out of that setup. You really are bad at this. Damn. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Liquid with temps in the 20s Yeah, and I'll hard pass on that. Showing up on all of the modeling now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: You really are bad at this. Damn. I was about to say, but ninja’d. Also, none of the other globals really made that same trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: It’s not really about undergoing the SE ridge, it’s about where it dumps the big ULL. If you dump it was of lakes and far enough south you get an icon solution. More west like euro it’s maybe some front end to ice, drizzle. The ridge just responds to the placement of that feature. The SE ridge effect where the ULL consolidates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, and I'll hard pass on that. Showing up on all of the modeling now Definitely a 94-like setup happening. Would be nice if we could keep the boundary farther south and it’s more snow for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I think that run would've been historic if it were one province over into Saskatchewan. That would place the high over western Ontario over into the eastern side and drill the CAD wedge even further south and east. I think at this point, the models are honing in on a reconsolidation of the PV over southern Canada, and it's just a matter of where at this point, cuz that will have downstream implications on the cold layer and amplification of the 5H ridge east of the Mississippi. How many days to resolve the reconsolidation? Any idea ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Definitely a 94-like setup happening. Would be nice if we could keep the boundary farther south and it’s more snow for us. Get out of my head! Will always remember that winter. Definitely rooting for a souther boundary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, frd said: How many days to resolve the reconsolidation? Any idea ? I would think by the end of the weekend, the envelope of possibilities SHOULD close by that point, which will aid in the forecast possibilities reflected in the lower levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Definitely a 94-like setup happening. Would be nice if we could keep the boundary farther south and it’s more snow for us. JB has been throwing 94 around lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wow look at these ice totals. I've never been in an ice storm before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Definitely a 94-like setup happening. Would be nice if we could keep the boundary farther south and it’s more snow for us. 99 had a couple of them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'm also OUT on the ice. Give me the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Wow look at these ice totals. I've never been in an ice storm before. Be careful with those maps! That is not accretion being shown but QPF of liquid falling into temps below 32 degrees! There's a lot of physical properties that occur for freezing rain to occur. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wlantry Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: >>Wow look at these ice totals. I've never been in an ice storm before. I was in Nashville for the blizzard of '93. Lost power for a week. Not something I'd look forward to again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I think that run would've been historic if it were one province over into Saskatchewan. That would place the high over western Ontario over into the eastern side and drill the CAD wedge even further south and east. I think at this point, the models are honing in on a reconsolidation of the PV over southern Canada, and it's just a matter of where at this point, cuz that will have downstream implications on the cold layer and amplification of the 5H ridge east of the Mississippi. The GEFS looks a lot better in that regard, in fact it improved compared to 6z. Hoping Euro jumped to one extreme and that the EPS isn't directly in that camp, but even with it's attempts to pump up a massive ridge the output was still pretty wild. Last time we were in a overrunning scenario like this I recall a lot of concern of energy being dumped into the western US but we ended up with suppression depression, doesn't seem like this will go that way though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The GEFS looks a lot better in that regard, in fact it improved compared to 6z. Hoping Euro jumped to one extreme and that the EPS isn't directly in that camp, but even with it's attempts to pump up a massive ridge the output was still pretty wild. Last time we were in a overrunning scenario like this I recall a lot of concern of energy being dumped into the western US but we ended up with suppression depression, doesn't seem like this will go that way though. You get the most improved poster award. You're getting good! 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: You get the most improved poster award. You're getting good! Agreed. He's made awesome strides. Keep it up @Cobalt!! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Wow look at these ice totals. I've never been in an ice storm before. Even if you cut that by 50% it's substantial. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 BECS ice storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Even if you cut that by 50% it's substantial. So I have no context when it comes to ice storms. If something like that map verified verbatim, what would the impacts be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: So I have no context when it comes to ice storms. If something like that map verified verbatim, what would the impacts be? You'll be watching TV by candle light 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Eh. Who needs power anyway? Ice storms will be the new snow days in a virtual world. Can't do work/school virtually without power. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: You'll be watching TV by candle light That's what they used to call "reading a book" back in the day! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: So I have no context when it comes to ice storms. If something like that map verified verbatim, what would the impacts be? Crippling. If temps are in the mid-20s and we get steady light rain, it would be crippling. God forbid it would be even a little windy to boot. True ice storms are very rare. The Nashville one mentioned in 1994 was one such - that stretched all the way back along I-40 to Oklahoma if memory serves. Anyone who cares at all about trees, power, and the like should not want to see a true ice storm. Pics from Nashville in 1994: https://www.tennessean.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2015/02/16/nashville-then-ice-storm-of-1994/23505561/ Here's a report from Memphis from the great southern ice storm of 1994... https://www.wmcactionnews5.com/2019/02/11/breakdown-looking-back-ice-storm-feb/#:~:text=MEMPHIS%2C TN (WMC) -,history occurred%3A Ice Storm 94.&text=That swath of moisture brought,as rain early Wednesday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: So I have no context when it comes to ice storms. If something like that map verified verbatim, what would the impacts be? The Sperry Piltz Ice Accretion Index leverages wind and ice accretion to measure impacts. I'm going to cut the forecasted amount in half, which would mean an Ice Damage Index of at least a 1. However, a year or two ago we had this ice event in upper Montgomery County where we got between 0.3" and 0.5" ice with almost no wind and it was impressive. A lot of trees snapping in two, event the hardwoods, which caused big problems to the power grid. Some places were out for 3 days and that was for the Allegheny Power service area which does a good job at tree trimming. Something like what's being advertised there would be probably a 2 or 3. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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