Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Gfs crush job next week, wow what a run. Well, you and PSU (and some others) kind of highlighted that time period, and it has been showing up for a bit in various forms...so credit where credit is due if we score! Oh, and your phone needs a good charge again, LOL!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is a possible outcome with the sort of h5 look being advertised. I would sign up for that. The only caveat is if the tpv end up too far west then it runs inland, but I think the day 6 wave helps push the boundary east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, you and PSU (and some others) kind of highlighted that time period, and it has been showing up for a bit in various forms...so credit where credit is due if we score! Oh, and your phone needs a good charge again, LOL!!! Haha yeah. Thing is it kind of happens not in the way I expected, but as long as it snows idc! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: The only caveat is if the tpv end up too far west then it runs inland, but I think the day 6 wave helps push the boundary east. Yeah, that D6 (next Wed.) system hopefully can keep the boundary just south of us or so. I thought the models were backing off some from dumping the TPV too far west, from some discussion I recall later yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This won’t verify, but is crazy to see 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Getting downtown DC below zero is probably like a 6 sigma event now. Double digits below zero?? Like 8 or 9 sigma?? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Mentally recharged. The GFS has been consistent in showing ridiculous levels of high pressure over the whole entire arctic. This run basically speaks for itself: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Getting downtown DC below zero is probably like a 6 sigma event now. Double digits below zero?? Like 8 or 9 sigma?? I've lived in Frederick for 11 years now and the coldest I can recall is -5 or -6. -15 would just be insanely cold. However I would definitely try that boiling water to snow trick! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Getting downtown DC below zero is probably like a 6 sigma event now. Double digits below zero?? Like 8 or 9 sigma?? ETA: I'll take the over on those temps...but even still, that's quite the signal for some real cold. Even if overdone it might end up the coldest (or colder) since Feb. 2015 if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: I've lived in Frederick for 11 years now and the coldest I can recall is -5 or -6. -15 would just be insanely cold. However I would definitely try that boiling water to snow trick! It won’t work. I did the cup of just tap water at -22 and it didn’t work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It won’t work. I did the cup of just tap water at -22 and it didn’t work. Well that sucks. Maybe the frozen bubble thing then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It won’t work. I did the cup of just tap water at -22 and it didn’t work. Think it has to be -40 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It won’t work. I did the cup of just tap water at -22 and it didn’t work. That's because for it to work it needs to be very hot or boiling so it will evaporate faster. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, benjammin said: That's because for it to work it needs to be very hot or boiling so it will evaporate faster. -42F is what is needs to be...looked it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: -42F is what is needs to be...looked it up I've seen video at much more moderate temperatures and it working but the water has to be boiling because it's closer to the evaporation point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It won’t work. I did the cup of just tap water at -22 and it didn’t work. I did it in Winnipeg in 1977 in -40 F temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Taking a look at the 500mb maps of the 18z GFS, we see sub 500dm heights settle over Pennsylvania just in time for Valentine's Day. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up Thoughts on the fact that GFS this past Sunday showed temps around zero for Central Va on 2/8 and Euro did for 2/9 but starting Tue drastically changed that to overnight lows around freezing for those nights. Why do you feel this will be different for 10-14 day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amorphous Iodine Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, benjammin said: I've seen video at much more moderate temperatures and it working but the water has to be boiling because it's closer to the evaporation point. I got a book that says water solidifies at 32 F. I hypothesize it all depends upon how tall you are and strong your water-throwing arm is. Paul Bunyan probably would need 30-ish F water or negative 1-2 C to get ice. But what do I know about molecules, I’m just a halogen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, wasnow215 said: Thoughts on the fact that GFS this past Sunday showed temps around zero for Central Va on 2/8 and Euro did for 2/9 but starting Tue drastically changed that to overnight lows around freezing for those nights. Why do you feel this will be different for 10-14 day? The frame work for the cold spell is there, but just has to evolve. We were several days out from any cold a week ago, but now it's inside 5 days for the polar plunge to begin taking shape. There's a lot of consistency on guidance with the result of cold but 5 days ago was not. There was a lot of scenarios for positioning of the PV and the lobes of vorticity rotating down out of Canada. Now we have less variation for the evolution within a 5 day envelope. The teleconnection pattern screams major cold as well with increasing heights over the pole to open the door for cross-polar flow into NA. Once the cold comes in, there's nothing really going to stop it from spilling. It's all about timing the flood gates at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up The coldest temperatures I ever experienced was in the winter of 1994. I know that people up north and the Midwest have been through much worse, but being from the East coast, I was not used to it. I was living in Louisville in ‘94 and we had air temps around between 0 to - 10 for about a week. That was after we had a surprise 13” snow storm that ended up shutting down the city for close to a week. No one was prepared for it because it was only supposed to be 1 inch! The highways were closed around Louisville and they literally sent in the National Guard to plow out the city. It was like lake effect snow along the Ohio River. It was so cold in Louisville that we couldn’t even enjoy the snow. I don’t look forward to that kind of cold again. My parents were in MD, so I know that the DC area was hit with a terrible ice storm a that same week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: terrible ice storm a that same week That’s one thing about deep cold. You can sure get a wicked ice storm if you have a high that locks that cold in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 34 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The frame work for the cold spell is there, but just has to evolve. We were several days out from any cold a week ago, but now it's inside 5 days for the polar plunge to begin taking shape. There's a lot of consistency on guidance with the result of cold but 5 days ago was not. There was a lot of scenarios for positioning of the PV and the lobes of vorticity rotating down out of Canada. Now we have less variation for the evolution within a 5 day envelope. The teleconnection pattern screams major cold as well with increasing heights over the pole to open the door for cross-polar flow into NA. Once the cold comes in, there's nothing really going to stop it from spilling. It's all about timing the flood gates at this point. Thank you! Great explanation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s one thing about deep cold. You can sure get a wicked ice storm if you have a high that locks that cold in. This!! And they can sneak up out of no where too as long as you have a lot of little shortwaves rippling in the flow. Squalls and ice are my two biggest things to look out for during major cold outbreaks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Getting downtown DC below zero is probably like a 6 sigma event now. Double digits below zero?? Like 8 or 9 sigma?? I remember -4 when the Ice Winter of 1994 swung into gear. There were rolling brownouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 00z ICON signaling overrunning HARD Day 6 into 7 Wow... what a fookin run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 ICON has the overrunning event next Thursday that turns into a coastal. What a weenie hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Overrunning thing might be legit. Showing up on most modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts