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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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@WxUSAF that Feb 2 thing didn’t get much attention because it wasn’t even on the radar until like 36 hours out. It was a weak wave buried between the two big storms that guidance didn’t see. Then even when it popped up it was a 3-6” snow 2 days before 2-3 feet was showing on guidance so it was an afterthought to everyone. No tracking and by the time it was snowing we were already under a watch for a HECS. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

There was another one where a storm was underforcasted and dropped 2'' of snow and it was in the 20s during rush hour. Because everyone was focused on the 2016 blizzard in two days no one knew about this one and it caused huge traffic jams.  

Yep, and ironically they (VA, MD, and DC) didn’t pre treat the roads.  I mean usually they treat the roads for cold rain in January...

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Honestly I think that’s quite possible. Good news here is that it’s only 72hrs away and there’s definitely fast flow, so hopefully not TOO far NW. @psuhoffman should be pretty stoked. I’d wager more on a typical fall line type of boundary here in snow amounts than a jackpot in southern MD.

Its been that way all season. The snowfall gradient on the seasonal map is very telling. I know a lot of the forum is feeling pretty good right now but it has been very painful E of 95 this year.

1612396800-dXbwZE7pmTE.png

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9 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Its been that way all season. The snowfall gradient on the seasonal map is very telling. I know a lot of the forum is feeling pretty good right now but it has been very painful E of 95 this year.

1612396800-dXbwZE7pmTE.png

Looks pretty accurate. Has me at 10-11. I think I got 3ish from the mid December event and then 6-7ish from the recent storm. Also had 2 or 3 light dustings.

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF that Feb 2 thing didn’t get much attention because it wasn’t even on the radar until like 36 hours out. It was a weak wave buried between the two big storms that guidance didn’t see. Then even when it popped up it was a 3-6” snow 2 days before 2-3 feet was showing on guidance so it was an afterthought to everyone. No tracking and by the time it was snowing we were already under a watch for a HECS. 

I was just discussing this with a buddy of mine since we are in the same week! 

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19 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Yep, and ironically they (VA, MD, and DC) didn’t pre treat the roads.  I mean usually they treat the roads for cold rain in January...

Yeah I remember driving only a mile home from visiting a pediatrician's office with a very pregnant wife that night. I think it was around Jan 12 of 2016? The roads were impassable after only MAYBE an inch of snow and the various DOTs got hammered for it. I think that's still part of the reason they overtreat now. 

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26 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Its been that way all season. The snowfall gradient on the seasonal map is very telling. I know a lot of the forum is feeling pretty good right now but it has been very painful E of 95 this year.

1612396800-dXbwZE7pmTE.png

Its rare for my location to see more than double the snowfall that IAD receives.  So I expect that difference to narrow as we go forward.

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8 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

To say the least!

While it would be fun to see the deep cold at the end of the run, I think I'd rather see a Para-type scenario where the PV doesn't shear out into a huge positively tilted mess and instead rolls up into a nice storm on the way out -- as the pattern concludes. The deep scouring into the Gulf on the Euro kinda puts the damper on moisture return for a while after that scenario.

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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

While it would be fun to see the deep cold at the end of the run, I think I'd rather see a Para-type scenario where the PV doesn't shear out into a huge positively tilted mess and instead rolls up into a nice storm on the way out -- as the pattern concludes. The deep scouring into the Gulf on the Euro kinda puts the damper on moisture return for a while after that scenario.

This...the Arctic cold scenario greatly reduces our chances of a big snowstorm. 

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