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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, osfan24 said:

I don't remember the individual storms, but I just remember in the weeks leading up to the two big February storms, there was a few minor systems that ended up overachieving by quite a bit. There was like a three week stretch where I think I ended up with 70 inches of snow or something ridiculous like that.

Remember when we overachieved on the clipper before the '16 storm? The commutageddon. 

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2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

This really does feel like a area wide winner

 

Just now, caviman2201 said:

North trend right up to gametime for NYC jack? :P

With a fast moving storm and a pretty mediocre stale airmass ahead, this is totally thread the needle. And I doubt we’re done with the NW trend. 

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Euro is actually somewhat slower than the NAM FWIW. It's just by like 6-12hrs, but obviously given the temp constraints it's huge since it has mod/heavy snow falling near noon compared to when the NAM has it. 

Luckily it seems like the Euro is certainly the slowest out of the models showing a hit. Will have to see if the progression speeds up since that certainly detriments the snow totals for the metro in the run. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Thought commutagedon was in Jan. 2011?

There was another one where a storm was underforcasted and dropped 2'' of snow and it was in the 20s during rush hour. Because everyone was focused on the 2016 blizzard in two days no one knew about this one and it caused huge traffic jams.  

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

There was another one where a storm was underforcasted and dropped 2'' of snow and it was in the 20s during rush hour. Because everyone was focused on the 2016 blizzard in two days no one knew about this one and it caused huge traffic jams.  

Oh dang I don't even remember that one for some reason! (guess because of the blizzard, lol) Wow

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

is there anything stopping a NW surge

Not really. Yes in terms of the boundary but there is nothing to stop that from shifting and the typical bias on these progressive frontal waves the final 72 hours is more amplified and north. Even the euro. Think of those waves in Feb 2017 and 2018 that looked good for us at 48-100 hours and ended up a big snow for central PA. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Agreed.  Was just about to say...it'll probably keep shifting NW...maybe to the point where we get worried, lol

Honestly I think that’s quite possible. Good news here is that it’s only 72hrs away and there’s definitely fast flow, so hopefully not TOO far NW. @psuhoffman should be pretty stoked. I’d wager more on a typical fall line type of boundary here in snow amounts than a jackpot in southern MD.

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