Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[H2O]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Meh? It’s been an unmitigated dumpster fire. 

i was trying to not sound like Ji.  But you are right.  Its a dumpster fire in a sewage plant thats lost power and everyone in the whole city just ate at Taco Bell and are flushing at the same time.

[psuhoffman]

57 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That isn’t really true. We had an early Jan event that year I’m thinking right around New Years. We had a mid month event on a Thursday that was about a sloppy inch here. And I’m thinking there was a light freezing rain event in there too. Then the end of the month. So while it wasn’t great, it was better than this.

True but.... one of those events was a clipper, and the other 2 were highly marginal temp events.  Clippers are increasingly rare lately.  The enhanced pac jet likely has a part in that.  Clippers were often pretty discreet waves to begin with...barely amplified enough to produce.   The raging pac jet is making it difficult for even pretty major NS features to amplify and phase...let along those discreet waves.  I think there is some linkage there.  Besides a clipper is a pretty random fluke thing anyways.  And we can debate how much of this is a residual effect after the 2016 super nino (although you would think that would have worn off by now especially after 2 cold enso years following it) or how much might be a more permanent issue (no I don't want to start a climate civil war here) but the fact is the base state of north america has been a TORCH since 2016 and marginal events from 10 years ago probably would just be cold rain now.  We have all observed the dearth of "minor snow events" lately and there is a really simply logical reason...most of those were marginal to begin with...so what happens if you add a few degrees to those "marginal 10/20 years ago" events?   I'll tell you..exactly what we saw...perfect track cold rain.  So that storm around New Years where you got some freezing rain...and the one right after where we had a perfect track system and got cold rain...those were the minor marginal events 10/20 years ago.   But that doesn't mean we cant snow.  But something that BARELY worked 10 years ago likely isn't going to now.  So there could be some pattern progression similarities...but you have to adjust for today's base state (temporary or permanent not having that discussion).  

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

True but.... one of those events was a clipper, and the other 2 were highly marginal temp events.  Clippers are increasingly rare lately.  The enhanced pac jet likely has a part in that.  Clippers were often pretty discreet waves to begin with...barely amplified enough to produce.   The raging pac jet is making it difficult for even pretty major NS features to amplify and phase...let along those discreet waves.  I think there is some linkage there.  Besides a clipper is a pretty random fluke thing anyways.  And we can debate how much of this is a residual effect after the 2016 super nino (although you would think that would have worn off by now especially after 2 cold enso years following it) or how much might be a more permanent issue (no I don't want to start a climate civil war here) but the fact is the base state of north america has been a TORCH since 2016 and marginal events from 10 years ago probably would just be cold rain now.  We have all observed the dearth of "minor snow events" lately and there is a really simply logical reason...most of those were marginal to begin with...so what happens if you add a few degrees to those "marginal 10/20 years ago" events?   I'll tell you..exactly what we saw...perfect track cold rain.  So that storm around New Years where you got some freezing rain...and the one right after where we had a perfect track system and got cold rain...those were the minor marginal events 10/20 years ago.   But that doesn't mean we cant snow.  But something that BARELY worked 10 years ago likely isn't going to now.  So there could be some pattern progression similarities...but you have to adjust for today's base state (temporary or permanent not having that discussion).  

I was really just responding to the theme of the post that seemed to be “2010 wasn’t good in January so this isn’t that bad”. This is bad. It’s actually a worse Jan than last year. Easily. The potential may be better but the actual has been worse.

[jaydreb]

GFS suppressing everything.  

[87storms]

this winter isn't even in the same class as 2014, much less 2010.  in 2010, we had a pattern that was bringing nor'easters and increasingly cold weather beginning in fall '09.  so far, this winter reminds me of a more favorable version of last winter, but still not enough cold (which can be seen by the upper level pattern for just about every storm we've tracked).  this isn't scientific, but it does seem like it's going to take time to get from the warm/wet (record breaking at that) of 2017/18 to a pattern that brings sustained cold/snow which is why i've been buying into the posts that have mentioned late jan/feb.  that just makes sense given that we've had practically no arctic air up to this point.

i also think for this area it makes more sense to track cold/blocking/-nao/+pna/etc as opposed to storms.  we're a precip town...that part is relatively easy for us, but the cities average a high of low 40s during peak, so we need help to get snow here which is why when you take out the outliers (the every 4-6 year blizzard) the stats are more realistic.

it would be nice to just get a clipper/manitoba mauler at this point.  someone had said those have decreased in frequency and it does seem that way, though that would also line up with just having less cold around as well the last couple of years instead of a digging northern jet.

[PivotPoint]

 

1 hour ago, frd said:

I have been reflecting and feel when we talk about threat windows, intervals  of + PNA , transit ridges it really means we are in trouble. 

Anyone whom doubts the Pac needs to reassess in my opinion. SSWE, - NAO,  - AO , - NAM state, HL blocking, etc., etc., mean nothing , all that really matters is that the Pac cooperates and that Canada doesn't torch in December.

When I see some - SD deviations on the Canadian 10 mean and see the Pac improve instead or worsen only then do I feel we have a chance at something more than a pity event.     

Look at how this PNA has evolved. 

 

I said the same exact thing like 3 weeks ago and everyone was like, "the Pac doesnt need to be perfect to get a storm". Thats an exact quote. And although I agree with that statement my comments and context was never for a perfect setup on the PAC side. But I made the point that UNTIL that cooperates, then who cares about all the great pieces in the atlantic and poleward. But nope, everyone criticized me for being a Debbie.. Mmhmmm

[WinterWxLuvr]

We’ve had 0.18” of precip in Winchester since Jan 1. You can draw your own conclusions from that.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

 

I said the same exact thing like 3 weeks ago and everyone was like, "the Pac doesnt need to be perfect to get a storm". Thats an exact quote. And although I agree with that statement my comments and context was never for a perfect setup on the PAC side. But I made the point that UNTIL that cooperates, then who cares about all the great pieces in the atlantic and poleward. But nope, everyone criticized me for being a Debbie.. Mmhmmm

I happen to agree with you. The pacific is always more important imo. Said that years ago and don’t believe different now.

[frd]

Just now, PivotPoint said:

 

I said the same exact thing like 3 weeks ago and everyone was like, "the Pac doesnt need to be perfect to get a storm". Thats an exact quote. And although I agree with that statement my comments and context was never for a perfect setup on the PAC side. But I made the point that UNTIL that cooperates, then who cares about all the great pieces in the atlantic and poleward. But nope, everyone criticized me for being a Debbie.. Mmhmmm

I could speculate if we had the same HL configuration and Greebland block in a Nino with a more active STJ maybe things would work out better but one,  I am getting ahead of myself because who knows,  we might score but I also know things seem to be different now,  where we are fighting a altered base state. Also,  Anthony mentioned the best cold dynamics and baroclinic storm opportunities are on the other side . 

I have witnessed many times though that a stout NAO block and severe - AO yielded little snow but this time it's been good indices for weeks and weeks and zero snowfall.  That is the first time I have seen that. 

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

GFS suppressing everything.  

brutal look. this falls into the careful what you wish for with epic blocking. I mean it will be cold if you like that...which I normally do...but there is nothing getting through as depicted.  the way SW part of the forum should be watching close to that 540 boundary...they could cash in. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I said the same exact thing like 3 weeks ago and everyone was like, "the Pac doesnt need to be perfect to get a storm

And I stand firm that now you need a cooperative Pac to get a decent SECS in the Mid Atlantic. New England doesn't require that.  

You want a more severe snow storm?  Then you need some NAO help to raise the bar. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was really just responding to the theme of the post that seemed to be “2010 wasn’t good in January so this isn’t that bad”. This is bad. It’s actually a worse Jan than last year. Easily. The potential may be better but the actual has been worse.

two things can be true...Your point is totally correct.  But his general pattern comparison is true also...January 2010 didn't do much for many despite good blocking throughout.  And since the little bit of snow we got before the Jan 30 storm was VERY marginal...we could make the argument this January is a 2021 adjusted version of 2010.  It's not a perfect comp but I think both of you are making true statements.  

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

 

I said the same exact thing like 3 weeks ago and everyone was like, "the Pac doesnt need to be perfect to get a storm". Thats an exact quote. And although I agree with that statement my comments and context was never for a perfect setup on the PAC side. But I made the point that UNTIL that cooperates, then who cares about all the great pieces in the atlantic and poleward. But nope, everyone criticized me for being a Debbie.. Mmhmmm

But what if the pac isn't fixable...some of us are focused on ways to work AROUND the pac...because that jet isn't going anywhere...its been a non stop thing for 5 years!  So we can either try to work around it or just give up!

[psuhoffman]

FWIW I am totally ok with where the threat around the 24th is on guidance right now.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Which is exactly my point....we aren't scoring during the heart of the epic blocking pattern. We are likely going to hit when the pattern breaks down or flips completely. Might be a one-off, who knows? But chances seem higher than usual for a HA event this season.

I know its the gfs op at range but there is your HA signature.  Long duration overunning while ull catches up and meets at the coast last days of Jan while the AO/NAO relax/flip. Get a better PNA ridge out west even if transient and we will be talking KU during the waning days of Jan thru Feb 7ish.

[Ji]

how come what shows up on the ensembles in terms of snow never show up on the OP

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

how come what shows up on the ensembles in terms of snow never show up on the OP

The snow mean day 8-16 looks good but most members get there by 1 hit out of the 3 or so waves in that period. Today’s GFS has 1 hit from the 3rd. Yesterday it had a hit from the second. You are focused on the first wave only. 

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

how come what shows up on the ensembles in terms of snow never show up on the OP

Blended mean solutions, lower resolution, etc.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The snow mean day 8-16 looks good but most members get there by 1 hit out of the 3 or so waves in that period. Today’s GFS has 1 hit from the 3rd. Yesterday it had a hit from the second. You are focused on the first wave only. 

im focused on any wave that would snow for us and that wave has pushed back 2 weeks now. We cant even buy a raindrop

[RedSky]

Meh no cold rain is a good thing

 

[Ji]

im tired of the euro showing us snow and then caving to the GFS. Just an embarrasemnt for the european community

[snowmagnet]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But what if the pac isn't fixable...some of us are focused on ways to work AROUND the pac...because that jet isn't going anywhere...its been a non stop thing for 5 years!  So we can either try to work around it or just give up!

I don't understand all the meteorological teleconnections, but I do know enough that the raging pac jet is a really bad thing.  I thought we were in good shape with a -NAO, -AO, etc, but when I saw the "pac puke" coming back this year, I knew we were in trouble.  I remember after 2016, it seemed that none of the long term models had any accuracy at predicting and I heard mets explaining that it was the extremely strong pacific jet wreaking havoc on long-term modeling.  I guess that is what is happening again and why we can't get any accuracy in the long-term.  Are there any teleconnections to predict when that might slow down or is that tied to whether the PNA is positive or negative?  I know we could use a +PNA with our blocking.  

[Vice-Regent]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

im tired of the euro showing us snow and then caving to the GFS. Just an embarrasemnt for the european community

It's got this weird thing going on with the Atlantic height anomalies causing the flow to be less progressive than it is.

[Rvarookie]

I wish it was possible to be reaped multiple times in a winter. Least last year we had some really warm days mixed in. This winter sucks ass

[psuhoffman]

Para has a snowstorm day 11.  Did I miss something?  Today doesn't look bad to me on guidance.  So far the GFS/GGEM both have a very healthy wave just south of us around the 24th.  Para has a snowstorm around the 26 and the GFS has a hit just beyond that.  We have 3 legit opportunities in the pattern coming up and things look just as good today as they did yesterday but everyone is having a melt down.  Maybe I missed the memo.  

[Interstate]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Para has a snowstorm day 11.  Did I miss something?  Today doesn't look bad to me on guidance.  So far the GFS/GGEM both have a very healthy wave just south of us around the 24th.  Para has a snowstorm around the 26 and the GFS has a hit just beyond that.  We have 3 legit opportunities in the pattern coming up and things look just as good today as they did yesterday but everyone is having a melt down.  Maybe I missed the memo.  

It is like going on an interview and they say "We will call you." But they never do.

[Ji]

Para has a snowstorm day 11.  Did I miss something?  Today doesn't look bad to me on guidance.  So far the GFS/GGEM both have a very healthy wave just south of us around the 24th.  Para has a snowstorm around the 26 and the GFS has a hit just beyond that.  We have 3 legit opportunities in the pattern coming up and things look just as good today as they did yesterday but everyone is having a melt down.  Maybe I missed the memo.  

You lost me at day 11. Nobody when this month started assumed that we would not at least be tracking a threat this weekend. Everyone said wait till mid month. We'll it's here.

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Just need moisture 

This

[LP08]

Euro has some northern md snow at day 6.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

You lost me at day 11. Nobody when this month started assumed that we would not at least be tracking a threat this weekend. Everyone said wait till mid month. We'll it's here.

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

But the wave around the 22nd was a long shot yesterday too. You know that. You’ve pointed out the euro was totally on its own and we knew it would cave. So why the meltdown when exactly what we expected happens?  The better threats were always AFTER that. What changed today v yesterday?