Ji Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Amped said: RGEM doesn't like the idea. Not digging the NS the way the NAM did. im not excatly trusting the RGEM right now 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: RGEM doesn't like the idea. Not digging the NS the way the NAM did. That thing is in the doghouse for the foreseeable future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 of course the ICON broke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: im not excatly trusting the RGEM right now my street still isn't plowed after the 26" storm we got on Monday. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 What happened to the ICON? Footnote: keep coming a little more nw. Thanks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: That thing is in the doghouse for the foreseeable future. It was really more a comment into the mechanics of the storm. We need the NS more amped up if it's going to come up the coast. I really never trusted the NAM or RGEM on their own. Always worth waiting for the better models to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 50 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Wasn't that long ago the Euro showed this Yes. Been a weird winter on the models. A couple of days ago the GFS looked like the Euro does right now. And Euro looked like the NAM does right now. It is maddening in all honesty. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: I think we even did well at my old NE Baltimore hood from the 2 1987 storms . I remember heavy rates in one . Yes all parts of the city did well. You probably got 10-12 with the first storm then the 2nd storm was a very cold storm so you probably got 6-8 with that one. Both those storms were in later January. The storm I was referencing was the wet snow fast moving bomb in Feb. You probably got 10-12 with that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Yes. Been a weird winter on the models. A couple of days ago the GFS looked like the Euro does right now. And Euro looked like the NAM does right now. It is maddening in all honesty. Thats what I've taken from things this winter. All the models have jumped around with some storms. There isn't one that you can hang a hat on because the next run can show a wildly different set up. Just look at the modeled cold. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: Thats what I've taken from things this winter. All the models have jumped around with some storms. There isn't one that you can hang a hat on because the next run can show a wildly different set up. Just look at the modeled cold. Are we positive the cold isn't coming now? Would you bet your flagpole on it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 56 minutes ago, jaydreb said: We can dream. Insert “Didn’t the NAM lead the way on _______ first?” comment. OMG.. look at that Stripe on the NAM.. Thats a Thread the needle scenario if I have ever seen one. The funny thing i that the many of the GEFS individual members are showing the same thing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ji said: im not excatly trusting the RGEM right now Why not? It was only off by 2 feet or so on accumulations for the last storm from 24 hours out. Pretty close when you consider it is looking out all the way from Canada. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GFS is amped up with the NS but not as far west as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GFS is much better this run. Digging more at 66 Nice run for DC and south. Might need to go to the beach house this weekend. OC gets the goods. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 hours ago, frd said: If I may , I understand everything you posted and totally agree, however, given the look of the pattern previously, combined with the weeks and weeks of -AO, -NAO and West based Greenland blocking one would have thought the area North of Dover Delaware and into the Wilmington corridor should have seen a lot more snow to date. I understand climo exists for a reason. As you mentioned our climo is lower due to elevation, ocean NE wind influence ( more so earlier in the season ) and I would even include our latitude as well. Miller Bs for sure are way more erratic in snowfall distribution. Even in the 2016 Blizzard where Bob got 30 inches our forecast bust here because the best dynamics were West of the Bay. So many variables. Hopefully the upcoming pattern eventually produces a storm where the coastal plain can benefit. Seems for my area, and maybe @CAPE's as well, a Nino might be more effective because we lock in CAD and then get vigorous over-running. Sometimes it’s just bad luck. 2018 was the reverse. Your area did a lot better wrt climo then DC or even my area. You got clipped by the coastals in early January and March that totally missed further west and you still did ok with the late March storm that did get DC. Sometimes there are screw zones in a given year and it’s more due to random chaos then anything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 30 minutes ago, Ji said: im not excatly trusting the RGEM right now The RGEM is in timeout. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS is much better this run. Digging more at 66 Nice run for DC and south. Might need to go to the beach house this weekend. OC gets the goods. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 41 minutes ago, chris21 said: 87 has been showing up in the 6-10, 8-14 day analog list. approved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'll take the 12z Para GFS for 200 please Alex... another NW tick from 06z with the wintry precip 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Marginal temps with this one..if it does come north, need to get into the meat of the precipitation. Gonna need rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Are we positive the cold isn't coming now? Would you bet your flagpole on it? I dunno. I'm not flaking on it going cold to warm like others. Whatever happens happens and I'm just here for the rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I'll take the 12z Para GFS for 200 please Alex Wow yes. Just a stronger colder version of the regular GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 One thing I have noticed since last nights runs is that every model is expanding the size of the precip shield. It is big enough now that just about everyone is going to see something fall. that is a win IMO. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 ICON is a hit, Gfs Para is a hit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 we need a west trend BADLY. tired of being fringed 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I feel like we are in a good spot for this one. Plenty of room for the NW push 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I'll take the 12z Para GFS for 200 please Alex... another NW tick from 06z with the wintry precip Absolutely. The last 4 cycles have all ticked to the northwest with an axis of moderate snowfall. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Amped said: ICON is a hit, Gfs Para is a hit. If Dr no is yes...the doctor might need to get fixed....never seen the euro go from no to snow that close to a storm for us(60 hours,etc)? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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