Amped Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like the west split pv dump was a blip . Guidance bouncing back colder . Yeah they do look better. My eyes are still recovering from looking at 12z runs. Hopefully they were a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looks like some improvement on GEFS for Sunday. A few more hits than 18z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Double what 18z showed FWIW... I think 18z GEFS showed 6 hits... 00z looks like 13 hits, but 2 (p02 and p13) I'm guessing either came through with snow for us the prior 6 hours or they are actually that far NW in their track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Double what 18z showed FWIW... I think 18z GEFS showed 6 hits... 00z looks like 13 hits, but 2 (p02 and p13) I'm guessing either came through with snow for us the prior 6 hours or they are actually that far NW in their trackIf there is one model trend we can count on, it’s the GFS bumping northward/northwestward in the last 72 hours of a storm. It happens every single time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, yoda said: Double what 18z showed FWIW... I think 18z GEFS showed 6 hits... 00z looks like 13 hits, but 2 (p02 and p13) I'm guessing either came through with snow for us the prior 6 hours or they are actually that far NW in their track 2 was a glancing hit (much better for northern and western areas) and 13 was indeed a good hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 EURO says no (and it's not particularly close) but it took a nice NW jog compared to 18z and 12z. Trend is our friend. 00z: 18z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Looks like 00z CMC has some idea for Day 9 and on... but is suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 00z EURO is probably going to crush and Day 9+ idea when you have a 1048mb HP sitting in S IA at 216 Temps are 10 to 20 below zero from OH to IL at 228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z EURO is probably going to crush and Day 9+ idea when you have a 1048mb HP sitting in S IA at 216 Bizzare run. Low tracks from Yucatan to FL, huge ice storm for GA/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Bizzare run. Low tracks from Yucatan to FL, huge ice storm for GA/SC I'm not even sure where the run was going after... there is h5 energy coming down the pipe at 240 as you can see below... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 WB 0Z EPS Control for 14th. 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GEFS says there is still a chance for Sunday. EPS made a slight tick NW, and GEPS says forget about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Mount Holly be like- what happened to the cold? Coming out of the weekend guidance has taken a fairly large shift. Previously a cold arctic airmass was anticipated to drop south over the central CONUS ushering in a well below normal airmass, however with the 18z and 00z suite, guidance is not nearly as bullish on the cold air dropping out of Canada. I`m hesitant to go all in on newer guidance and suggest near normal temperatures for next week such as the 00z deterministic guidance indicates, so I`ve offered a compromise of a slight trend towards a warmer solution for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6z little closer for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 6z little closer for Sunday Huge shift- 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Huge shift- I know...I was understating it just a tad. Don’t want to get too excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: I know...I was understating it just a tad. Don’t want to get too excited Surface temps are a bit warm so that should temper your enthusiasm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The vorticity max is more detached from the the NS trough and stronger compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 36 minutes ago, CAPE said: Surface temps are a bit warm so that should temper your enthusiasm. Wonder if 06z GEFS will up the ante a bit from its 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Woah... para 06z GFS was a nice hit ETA: Especially those S and E of i95 corridor 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 So can any one tell me what happen to the artic air? I kept hearing to much artic air and it will suppress the storm etc. Yesterday my high's for next week were all in the low 20s and lows in the low teens. now its low 40s for highs and upper 20s for lows? Yet the storm on some models is suppressed south? Why did the artic air not end up showing up now for next week? even sunday now is 43 when before it was 33. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Okay the NW 'trend' can stop right now tyvm. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 N tick trend working here for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Okay the NW 'trend' can stop right now tyvm. The 06z GEFS ensemble mean for snow went up 2-3" compared to 00z for just about everyone... wow 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: Surface temps are a bit warm so that should temper your enthusiasm. Temps near 50 and no cold in sight or did it flip back to cold? I thought I was looking at the wrong 10 day on my point and click. Went from deep winter to spring next week in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, yoda said: The 06z GEFS ensemble mean for snow went up 2" compared to 00z... wow Yeah there was a pretty big shift between 0z and 6z. Mostly to do that sw that sheds off the tail of the trough maintaining more separation and sharpness as it comes east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Well now I kinda see why looking at the individ members... P013 or P016 please lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: Temps near 50 and no cold in sight or did it flip back to cold? I thought I was looking at the wrong 10 day on my point and click. Went from deep winter to spring next week in 24 hours. Well its still not very cold. If the storm misses and we are partly sunny temps are in the 40s. It isn't even very cold with precipitation falling on the 6z run. Verbatim it is probably mostly rain with temps in the mid to upper 30s here, despite what the pretty WB maps imply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 I like the consistency of the models heading into the weekend and next week. If ever there was a time for the Alaska forecast method it’s now LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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