Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS.  Also looks good in long range.

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 hours ago, Ji said:

So it takes the cutter option of the table and gives us a suppressed pos

Don't want to be "that guy" but after Jan 28th the pattern looks better imo with ridging migrating back to the PNA region and the NAO not quite as intense. That is probably the look that we will need as the confluence under the current block is just too much. Normally I wouldn't look that far ahead but this is the first time this entire winter there looks to be something more likely to produce with less extreme tellies yet all in the right places. Guess what I'm saying is we clearly aren't scoring with epic near-textbook HL blocking so after the 28th we are seeing less extreme and more relaxed 'normal' looks and I'm winning to wager IF that look holds is when we will ALL start seeing things produce. Patience.....this winter isn't anywhere near over just yet. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Don't want to be "that guy" but after Jan 28th the pattern looks better imo with ridging migrating back to the PNA region and the NAO not quite as intense. That is probably the look that we will need as the confluence under the current block is just too much. Normally I wouldn't look that far ahead but this is the first time this entire winter there looks to be something more likely to produce with less extreme tellies yet all in the right places. Guess what I'm saying is we clearly aren't scoring with epic near-textbook HL blocking so after the 28th we are seeing less extreme and more relaxed 'normal' looks and I'm winning to wager IF that look holds is when we will ALL start seeing things produce. Patience.....this winter isn't anywhere near over just yet. 

Digital snowfall low end forecast did good so far. May escape Jan with well below normal snowfall.  Also above normal temps. Boring weather ahead contrary to Accu weather's news release last week for the East. HL blocking a complete failure by itself. 

 

Southern Canada finally with normal temps , wow ! 

 

 

 

[PivotPoint]

This is interesting. Our issue now is one I wouldn’t have expected. 
 

You can see below that this h5 looks like a decent setup - ridging out west, trough diving east and some confluence up from our departing system.

But our trough has no energy to work with and doesn’t dig deep enough and we get a dry and cold solution. But then (the interesting part) we this crazy ridging and almost full blocking in the pacific that forces all theses NS pieces of energy into the southwest - even so much as to move energy east-west and capture the energy UNDERNEATH the west coast block. Crazy

The frame before this you seen the NS energy decent south then merge with SS energy and little backtrack through the southwest. What does this do - it pumps up riding and heights ahead of the flow creating and even greater shear factory across the middle of the country. Not allowing for any amplification or spacing to develop between vorts.

Finally as we move through time you can still see the intense west coast ridge/blocking causing a break in the NS energy as it try’s to make its way east. Again, it shoots energy straight down the west coast and pumps heights to the east. It’s a vicious cycle even though we have good blocking to our north, with a 50/50 at times. We just have no mechanism to allow NS and SS to interact.

In my mind (to fix this) we need the huge AK ridge to reposition and create a split flow scenario where the angle of the NS is more oriented BC to central plains, then AK straight down the backside of the west coast where we lose all of energy and potential for interaction. I think a reshuffle of that ridge, and a couple warm days for us as that breaks down and hopefully reloads in a more ideal spot would do wonders IF we can also cycle our blocking up top. Perhaps one of those big pacific storms could do its dirty work in the PAC and reset that h5 look on the west coast, a bit

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, frd said:

Digital snowfall low end forecast did good so far. May escape Jan with well below normal snowfall.  Also above normal temps. Boring weather ahead contrary to Accu weather's news release last week for the East. HL blocking a complete failure by itself. 

 

Southern Canada finally with normal temps , wow ! 

 

 

 

Yep. Not saying we can't back into something over the next 12 days or so but chances are the shred factory suppression and cutter/late transfer pattern continues. Been saying for a bit that our best chances during this next 12ish days would be via some sort of clipper and I stick by that thinking. Maybe we sneak in some overunning thump when the trof digs into the Southwest and ejects wave(s) out under the gradient behind the confluence. But the better opportunities for a region-wide score looks to be after the 28th when the AO and NAO migrate to a more normalized near-neutral look. Temps will always be a concern but this deep into winter we won't need a massive EPO or vodka cold. Of course cutters could still be in play but with the SER pushed back this increases the support for my thoughts that post Jan 28th thru at least Feb 7 is the period to wait on and continue practicing patience. People are getting ansy, especially me, but I'm seeing more hope than I normally chirp about and I generally refrain from being overly optimistic wrt LR looks. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Don't want to be "that guy" but after Jan 28th the pattern looks better imo with ridging migrating back to the PNA region and the NAO not quite as intense. That is probably the look that we will need as the confluence under the current block is just too much. Normally I wouldn't look that far ahead but this is the first time this entire winter there looks to be something more likely to produce with less extreme tellies yet all in the right places. Guess what I'm saying is we clearly aren't scoring with epic near-textbook HL blocking so after the 28th we are seeing less extreme and more relaxed 'normal' looks and I'm winning to wager IF that look holds is when we will ALL start seeing things produce. Patience.....this winter isn't anywhere near over just yet. 

Question is, is the +PNA real or just another mirage out in the long range? I think it is going to be extremely difficult if not impossible to sustain any +PNA from here on out. Why? La Niña. The northern branch polar jet is absolutely screaming and will continue to be. We have a 200 kt jet roaring across the CONUS next week,  that jet is going nowhere. If any +PNA tries to pop up, the PAC jet is going to crash into it and knock it right back down as fast it went up. The northern branch is just going to become even more dominant, we are still in the midst of a moderate La Niña, which has actually become a west-based/Modoki (coldest anomalies in regions 4 and 3.4) event and we are going into a classic -PMM which is dramatically weakening the STJ/southern branch

[StormchaserChuck!]

Re: the storm, model trends are random so all people are really doing is describing. Logical function of real current (energy) is that the NAO is probably not going to trend more negative.. 33 months +NAO in a row, and if it does go negative, it will happen with parallel East coast warming trend, The -PNA is new, and happens strong and rapidly. I've seen that around Jan 14th when this develops on models it doesn't go away and trend -1 to +3 greater in the next 20 days, but about the same for the storm. That is not favorable but it is midWinter. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Question is, is the +PNA real or just another mirage out in the long range? I think it is going to be extremely difficult if not impossible to sustain any +PNA from here on out. Why? La Niña. The northern branch polar jet is absolutely screaming and will continue to be. We have a 200 kt jet roaring across the CONUS next week,  that jet is going nowhere. If any +PNA tries to pop up, the PAC jet is going to crash into it and knock it right back down as fast it went up. The northern branch is just going to become even more dominant, we are still in the midst of a moderate La Niña, which has actually become a west-based/Modoki (coldest anomalies in regions 4 and 3.4) event and we are going into a classic -PMM which is dramatically weakening the STJ/southern branch

I agree with you 100%. We haven't seen a sustained +PNA. But we have seen brief windows  where the PNA is positive AND/OR also where there is a split flow off the West Coast. My thought is that we will get a window somewhere during the range I posted above where the AO and NAO go weak negative or closer to neutral (rather than the -3 or -4 SD) AND the PNA ridge pops, even if transient. We maybe even back into some sort of hybrid split pattern just off or on the immediate West Coast with one branch in British Columbia and the other coming around the Baja.

[WxUSAF]

Not going to sugar coat that it’s January 15 and we’re still looking past D10 (and have been for over a week now) is pretty damn discouraging. 

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I agree with you 100%. We haven't seen a sustained +PNA. But we have seen brief windows  where the PNA is positive AND/OR also where there is a split flow off the West Coast. My thought is that we will get a window somewhere during the range I posted above where the AO and NAO go weak negative or closer to neutral (rather than the -3 or -4 SD) AND the PNA ridge pops, even if transient. We maybe even back into some sort of hybrid split pattern just off or on the immediate West Coast with one branch in British Columbia and the other coming around the Baja.

Yea, there may be a small, transient window at the end of the month. Beyond that, going into February, we will be riding a line very close to a full on torch pattern as the main tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent, if we lose the -NAO/-AO and they both look to be rising in the final days of this month, it’s hello SE Ridge, torch city

[dallen7908]

00 UT EPS suggests that our best chance of snow is in a 2-day window beginning a week from Monday and ending a week from Wednesday.  The EPS mean is 0.7" or greater for 4 consecutive 12-hour periods; a first for this season.   Hopefully, my post tomorrow will be identical with the exception of the 0.7 being changed to 1"

 

 

 

 

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not going to sugar coat that it’s January 15 and we’re still looking past D10 (and have been for over a week now) is pretty damn discouraging. 

I was just about to say that we can't deny that we just keep punting threat windows and can't seem to get legit threats within 10 days.  Delayed usually means denied around here but its hard for me to wrap my head around we don't at least get a warning event with that type of -NAO/50-50 look.  If we don't score, then all bets are off the table with what it takes to get snow around here.

[Roger Smith]

I think the first half of February will deliver the goods. There are some similarities to 2010, and if you recall, no sign of winter at all in January 2010, until the last few days anyway. Western Europe is in a very similar pattern to Jan 2010. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, there may be a small, transient window at the end of the month. Beyond that, going into February, we will be riding a line very close to a full on torch pattern as the main tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent, if we lose the -NAO/-AO and they both look to be rising in the final days of this month, it’s hello SE Ridge, torch city

I definitely think most of Feb is in dire trouble which is also partly the reason there will be a 7-10 day window for opportunity waning days of Jan thru around the 7th of Feb, give or take a day on either side, as the overall pattern transition/breakdown to a more Niña regime transpires. 

[chris21]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, there may be a small, transient window at the end of the month. Beyond that, going into February, we will be riding a line very close to a full on torch pattern as the main tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent, if we lose the -NAO/-AO and they both look to be rising in the final days of this month, it’s hello SE Ridge, torch city

Guidance has tried to break down the blocking countless times in the past month and a half. Given previous similar blocking regimes, it usually does not just disappear... particularly after a coupled SSW. -PMM may affect the STJ but we may be heading toward a more favorable MJO by the time Feb rolls around.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I definitely think most of Feb is in dire trouble which is also partly the reason there will be a 7-10 day window for opportunity waning days of Jan thru around the 7th of Feb, give or take a day on either side, as the overall pattern transition/breakdown to a more Niña regime transpires. 

considering how things have progressed I am not sure what level of certainty we can say either way.   when/how/if the overall pattern transitions or breaks down is not yet in stone...maybe Jello or something else squishy. 

[chris21]

20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I was just about to say that we can't deny that we just keep punting threat windows and can't seem to get legit threats within 10 days.  Delayed usually means denied around here but its hard for me to wrap my head around we don't at least get a warning event with that type of -NAO/50-50 look.  If we don't score, then all bets are off the table with what it takes to get snow around here.

In DC, we’ve actually had worse snow droughts. Look at the period from 1926-1932 . That being said, it’s still quite discouraging.

[Ralph Wiggum]

24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I was just about to say that we can't deny that we just keep punting threat windows and can't seem to get legit threats within 10 days.  Delayed usually means denied around here but its hard for me to wrap my head around we don't at least get a warning event with that type of -NAO/50-50 look.  If we don't score, then all bets are off the table with what it takes to get snow around here.

Which is exactly my point....we aren't scoring during the heart of the epic blocking pattern. We are likely going to hit when the pattern breaks down or flips completely. Might be a one-off, who knows? But chances seem higher than usual for a HA event this season.

[Ralph Wiggum]

24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I think the first half of February will deliver the goods. There are some similarities to 2010, and if you recall, no sign of winter at all in January 2010, until the last few days anyway. Western Europe is in a very similar pattern to Jan 2010. 

I'm certainly not using 2010 as an analog, tho there r similarities as u noted. I went back and looked at past 25 winters with sustained -AO/-NAO and most featured some sort of SECS/MECS as the pattern transitioned. Now I didnt factor enso into that. Maybe if I get a chance I will do so later. 

[frd]

25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

threat windows

I have been reflecting and feel when we talk about threat windows, intervals  of + PNA , transit ridges it really means we are in trouble. 

Anyone whom doubts the Pac needs to reassess in my opinion. SSWE, - NAO,  - AO , - NAM state, HL blocking, etc., etc., mean nothing , all that really matters is that the Pac cooperates and that Canada doesn't torch in December.

When I see some - SD deviations on the Canadian 10 mean and see the Pac improve instead or worsen only then do I feel we have a chance at something more than a pity event.     

Look at how this PNA has evolved. 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

I have been reflecting and feel when we talk about threat windows, intervals  of + PNA , transit ridges it really means we are in trouble. 

Anyone whom doubts the Pac needs to reassess in my opinion. SSWE, - NAO,  - AO , - NAM state, HL blocking, etc., etc., mean nothing , all that really matters is that the Pac cooperates and that Canada doesn't torch in December.

When I see some - SD deviations on the Canadian 10 mean and see the Pac improve instead or worsen only then do I feel we have a chance at something more than a pity event.     

Look at how this PNA has evolved. 

 

Look at the verification on the long range PNA forecasts

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, there may be a small, transient window at the end of the month. Beyond that, going into February, we will be riding a line very close to a full on torch pattern as the main tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent, if we lose the -NAO/-AO and they both look to be rising in the final days of this month, it’s hello SE Ridge, torch city

What makes you so sure tropical convection centers near the MC in Feb?  Most evidence I see has the most dominant signal in the western pacific. Not as far east as ideal (probably more phase 6/7) but not as hostile as the MC. That and the MJO has been a non factor so far. 

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I was just about to say that we can't deny that we just keep punting threat windows and can't seem to get legit threats within 10 days.  Delayed usually means denied around here but its hard for me to wrap my head around we don't at least get a warning event with that type of -NAO/50-50 look.  If we don't score, then all bets are off the table with what it takes to get snow around here.

If a Rex block retrograding from Greenland to Baffin along with a -epo doesn’t work then frankly I’m out of ideas how to countermand the pac jet. 

[nj2va]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

If a Rex block retrograding from Greenland to Baffin along with a -epo doesn’t work then frankly I’m out of ideas how to countermand the pac jet. 

Exactly.  I just find it hard to fathom we don’t eventually score irregardless of what OP runs are showing.

[WinterWxLuvr]

38 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I think the first half of February will deliver the goods. There are some similarities to 2010, and if you recall, no sign of winter at all in January 2010, until the last few days anyway. Western Europe is in a very similar pattern to Jan 2010. 

That isn’t really true. We had an early Jan event that year I’m thinking right around New Years. We had a mid month event on a Thursday that was about a sloppy inch here. And I’m thinking there was a light freezing rain event in there too. Then the end of the month. So while it wasn’t great, it was better than this.

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I definitely think most of Feb is in dire trouble which is also partly the reason there will be a 7-10 day window for opportunity waning days of Jan thru around the 7th of Feb, give or take a day on either side, as the overall pattern transition/breakdown to a more Niña regime transpires. 

I see mixed signals for Feb.  Tropical convection (if you extrapolate) isn’t ideal but it isn’t in the worst spot either and it’s been a muted driver so far. I also find it odd that some who dismiss a good look on guidance say 10-15 totally accept a bad look day 25 lol.  Some people keep misidentifying normal reversion towards mean at long leads as a sign the -AO/NAO is breaking down. That’s been going on since December. Even now after hints it was breaking long range earlier this week there are signs on the eps and geps that blocking reloads AGAIN into Feb after this retrograding block episode.  GEFS is neutral. It lingers the -AO/NAO. I kind of favor a continued high latitude blocking regime. There was another PV split yesterday!  The effects of the original SSW event are just coupling with the tpv now.  And there are hints at further strat weakening next week. This has the feel of a full season -AO year. That said other factors could continue to mute its effectiveness at delivering cold/snow.  But if a decent but flawed pattern is ever going to work February is the time. The picture is murky Imo. Definitive calls for February seem premature. 

[H2O]

Jan was supposed to be good.  So far its been meh.  Don't think Feb will be any easier to figure out and using any trend is not the best method.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

Jan was supposed to be good.  So far its been meh.  Don't think Feb will be any easier to figure out and using any trend is not the best method.

Meh? It’s been an unmitigated dumpster fire. 

[Rhino16]

Is NC going to be the place to be? What the heck gfs... and almost every other model out there. I’m going to start doing my calculations on paper. Frick that.

[MD Snow]

Not sure how many people are writing off the next 12 days. Last I checked models don't really lock in on things outside 5 days/120 hours. Many on here have already punted everything up until Jan. 25.  Sure there are things working against us...like the SE ridge not allowing for things to amplify or to much blocking etc. But the truth is that we still have a lot going for us in the current pattern. We could easily score from a weak somewhat suppressed wave in the next 10 days. I see a little potential in the wave next Wednesday making it over the mountains as it gets closer. Also, next Friday still has potential.