mattie g Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Just curious, but is there any correlation from winter to winter regarding the nao? Specifically, does a negative nao this winter diminish our chances of one next year? If the Pacific had been in a better state this year, we probably would have done better, especially earlier in the winter, right? What I’m getting at in a roundabout way is that I think the Pacific will look better next year. What are our chances of a -nao to go with it? No expert whatsoever, but I believe 2010-2011 featured blocking, especially earlier on in the year (someone please correct me if I'm wrong) - so a "continuation" of the blocking we saw the previous year. Of course, our general base state recently seems to have been +NAO, so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Just curious, but is there any correlation from winter to winter regarding the nao? Specifically, does a negative nao this winter diminish our chances of one next year? If the Pacific had been in a better state this year, we probably would have done better, especially earlier in the winter, right? What I’m getting at in a roundabout way is that I think the Pacific will look better next year. What are our chances of a -nao to go with it? Other than some esoteric and probably unproven correlations, the NAO is notoriously difficult to predict at long leads. There is a definite correlation to the AO state, and it tends to happen more in Ninos (I think), but beyond that it is tough to call. It has definitely been more persistently in the positive phase during winter over the last 50 years. Maybe that trend is about to shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: As we approach mid month, GEFS has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, neutral to +PNA. thats a a cruel way to screw us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: As we approach mid month, GEFS has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, neutral to +PNA. Mid month in February is earlier than other months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: thats a a cruel way to screw us You do ok in marginal setups. Already been screwed by suppression/timing twice with potential snow going to places further south. Could have been decent events for the MA coastal plain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I'll also add that I don't get why people are so mad we aren't getting teens and low 20's for highs. If we want to roll with 2013-2014 for the next month and a half or so, sure, that's cool. But most likely, it will just be freezing cold and dry as a bone. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 the euro is a disaster for This weekend. Cant belive the model changed by 600 miles from 120 hours to 96. this would never happen if it was a great lakes cutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro is a disaster for This weekend. Cant belive the model changed by 600 miles from 120 hours to 96. this would never happen if it was a great lakes cutter Just a few tweaks from 12z yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 However the GFS PARA is a hit. PARA/ICON rule 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 the GFS PARA is a weenie run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: However the GFS PARA is a big hit. PARA/ICON rule What’s that rule again? Oh right. That’s not a winning formula. Ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Also this is a temporary thing. That PV will slide east as the ridge in Canada retrogrades. This is too much panic for something that only impacts 2-3 days There is zero panic. Discussion is not panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 New IP rule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Scraff said: What’s that rule again? Oh right. That’s not a winning formula. Ever. as long as 1-2 models have a storm...ill keep an eye on it lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: as long as 1-2 models have a storm...ill keep an eye on it lol. Can we extrapolate the NAM yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 24 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'll also add that I don't get why people are so mad we aren't getting teens and low 20's for highs. If we want to roll with 2013-2014 for the next month and a half or so, sure, that's cool. But most likely, it will just be freezing cold and dry as a bone. You willing to stick to that prediction? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Thanks SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 So we went from Arctic Blast to Bust.. As I mentioned earlier.. and would the Ridge mean a warming trend? Sheesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Thanks SE ridge Who saw that coming ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, frd said: Who saw that coming ? several of us on the previous two pages in this thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: So we went from Arctic Blast to Bust.. As I mentioned earlier.. and would the Ridge mean a warming trend? Sheesh! relax...its still cold...we may have a warmer day or two early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Draw your own conclusions 20-25 degree temp swing so those bases covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, frd said: Who saw that coming ? BAMWX 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS PARA is a weenie run I can't find the tweet I saw so take this with a large grain of salt but I'm pretty sure the Para had pretty solid verification scores for this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, high risk said: several of us on the previous two pages in this thread. I meant from the Euro. The GFS and this morning's EPS went to that. I just didn't believe it. Honestly was hoping not to see that on this afternoon's run. I am still recovering from the weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: BAMWX As a drummer, I’ll abscond that emoji. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I can't find the tweet I saw so take this with a large grain of salt but I'm pretty sure the Para had pretty solid verification scores for this past storm. FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week. Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple): That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week. Definitely encouraging, though! EDIT: to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable. Perhaps that will be changing.... 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I can't find the tweet I saw so take this with a large grain of salt but I'm pretty sure the Para had pretty solid verification scores for this past storm. I remember it never took the bait on shifting the bullseye into our area like the Euro/EPS/UK did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, high risk said: FWIW, the GFS Para (GFSv16) has been scoring well in the past week. Here the day 5 scores for 500 mb heights over the Northern Hemisphere (GFSv16 is purple): That's just for the 500 flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and it doesn't mean that it nailed specific details for the storm, and it also doesn't mean that it will be awesome handling next week. Definitely encouraging, though! EDIT: to be fair, ALL of the models have been scoring well, so the pattern has been generally predictable. Perhaps that will be changing.... It is worrisome that the model intended to replace the GFS has been scoring lower than the GFS for most of that graph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: It is worrisome that the model intended to replace the GFS has been scoring lower than the GFS for most of that graph! Fair, although if you look at the composite numbers at the bottom of that image, it's a tie over the past 30 days. And GFSv16 scored better than GFSv15 throughout most of the retrospective runs. Tons of great info here: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gfsv16/ 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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