frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 @psuhoffman Cold air gone for next week, big change. Well, at least according to the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The NAO retrogrades a little too far west for my liking also That was suppose to be a gradual process. Too fast, versus earlier evolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z Eps went to that Yikes. Thanks for pointing that out. Seeing the 12z GEFS out to day 5, at the risk of analyzing too early, it certainly appears to be headed at least somewhat in the same direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman Cold air gone for next week, big change. Well, at least according to the GFS. It’s still lurking but gfs splits the PV and the dominant peace stays out west which pumps a ridge in the east. Previously guidance was elongating but sliding the dominant PV lobe east. The 6z eps went to that idea also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman Cold air gone for next week, big change. Well, at least according to the GFS. BAMWX will be happy 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Sunday isn’t dead imo. That’s the kind of wave that can trend better the final 72 hours. But it’s tricky and I’m not wasting time on every little trend at range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 First image is the gfs afternoon run from Sunday for Monday morning. The second is today’s gfs for the same time. Second image in next post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sunday isn’t dead imo. That’s the kind of wave that can trend better the final 72 hours. But it’s tricky and I’m not wasting time on every little trend at range. Me too, time for a break. If next week changes like that, the entire evolution of the month might change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Draw your own conclusions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Draw your own conclusions The second one looks warmer to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Draw your own conclusions The cold is still there it’s just dumping west initially not east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: The second one looks warmer to my untrained eye. Without question. Warmer in the East and more cold out West, colder and over a larger area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: The second one looks warmer to my untrained eye. Trend not good today at least for 3-7 day event(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 My experience in Nina years is that cold is consistently modeled to progress east and south but has a very hard time doing so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: The cold is still there it’s just dumping west initially not east. And that is exactly what my memory says about most Nina cold outbreaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And that is exactly what my memory says about most Nina cold outbreaks Like I said earlier, nothing this winter is easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 I think it’s the cold not getting here as quickly as originally modeled that’s killing Sunday. The CMC has another similar event next week where the look is that the cold front basically pushes the southern wave off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And that is exactly what my memory says about most Nina cold outbreaks I’m not really tracking cold. I care about snow. Seeing the Arctic shot didn’t excite me. Now seeing too much eastern ridge is a problem. But if that is slightly overdone it’s fine for getting waves. I don’t want the PV over us. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: Like I said earlier, nothing this winter is easy. Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m not really tracking cold. I care about snow. Seeing the Arctic shot didn’t excite me. Now seeing too much eastern ridge is a problem. But if that is slightly overdone it’s fine for getting waves. I don’t want the PV over us. Agree with both. I think the ridging is the reason the cold can’t seem to make it in Ninas. For whatever reasons the models under estimate the ridging out in time but tend to see it as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 There was a time a couple of weeks ago that the models saw a full latitude ridge in the east. That failed completely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: Like I said earlier, nothing this winter is easy. Yeah but were in the game. last year the game was cancelled. These are just the ebbs and flows that go with the territory when you love snow. Let's see if these changes for next week are for real in next few model cycles and if they are I still think the rest of February will be workable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The cold is still there it’s just dumping west initially not east. Sorry for the novice and perhaps stupid question, but wouldn’t this look allow the Sunday/Monday wave to gain more latitude before exiting the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 We're not getting a ridge in the east with a west-based NAO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: We're not getting a ridge in the east with a west-based NAO. Right now the Euro is thinking “ha this guy...we’ll see about that chief” as he is brewing pot of ass stew to be ready in about an hour 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The SE ridge will be suppressed somewhat. That is a LOT of cold pressing and a lot of blocking up top. We don't want to be in the core of the cold. That would be dry. We want to be near the boundary. This was a huge change from previous runs...guidance suddenly decided to split the PV and dump the larger part to our west which allows more ridge. But that can be a good thing if we end up near the boundary. GFS still ends up with a snowstorm just to our NW and then another just to our south. I highly doubt the boundary shifts so far NW that we are not at least in the game. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There was a time a couple of weeks ago that the models saw a full latitude ridge in the east. That failed completely. The block has been pretty effective in mitigating any SE ridge tendency, despite guidance attempting to pop it. For whatever reason in the LR, the models tend to go back to boilerplate Nina look, but it never really happens. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Long range GFS loves the SE for Valentines Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Also this is a temporary thing. That PV will slide east as the ridge in Canada retrogrades. This is too much panic for something that only impacts 2-3 days 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 If we get the thermal boundary a bit to our south and this active pattern that seems imminent, definitely can imagine snow threats popping up at and inside of D5 range. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 As we approach mid month, GEFS has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, neutral to +PNA. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts