blueberryfaygo Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 hours ago, Amped said: For the day 10 storm I'm a bit worried about suppression. the one before is sweet.. if that digs a little bit more souther this afternoon.. we gonna partying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6z GFS is getting a little closer for Sunday, it just doesn’t phase in time (Maine). As depicted, it’s a little hard to believe, two pieces of energy running in parallel for hundreds of miles without phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 The cold front this weekend is now looking particularly brutal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The cold front this weekend is now looking particularly brutal NWS better catch up. My point and click has temps near 50 Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Nothing impressive next week. Low 30's with low 20's at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Lookin well below average all week long next week. Solidly below freezing for 7 days per Eps My forecast temps keep climbing with each forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I don't see near 50 on any guidance sat and Sunday for even Baltimore. Where r u exactly? I'm in AA county. I'm near Crofton. It has 50 Friday, 45 Saturday and 48 Sunday. Yesterday Monday they had 24 and this morning is 36. 31/32 all next week. It will probably catch on today hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I'm in AA county. I'm near Crofton. It has 50 Friday, 45 Saturday and 48 Sunday. Yesterday Monday they had 24 and this morning is 36. 31/32 all next week. It will probably catch on today hopefully. Forecast highs here low 40s for Sat and Sun, dropping to 34 for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Mount Holly's take for the Sunday-Monday potential- Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Forecast highs here low 40s for Sat and Sun, dropping to 34 for Monday. Weather bug does weird stuff. They have the temp near 50 with a change of rain or snow. How does that make sense lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Didn’t see anyone talk about the 0z CMC for mid week storm next week. That looked like it had some serious juice and potential with it. Def a signal from most models in that time frame. I would fully expect that if we could sacrifice Sunday’s system for a doozy middle of next week everyone would be on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6z GEFS does look flatter and further east than 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Mount Holly's take for the Sunday-Monday potential- Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal.. What in the world made accu weather jump the gun forecasting , even though two options were presented, that a huge snowstorm would hit the East Coast ? It never was even close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 So far we will still have a strong west based NAO after a few days which will stucken the polar vortex over eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS does look flatter and further east than 0z run. Couple issues with timing and suppression. Similar concerns from before. Now watch the cold come and we go dry. Not sure I buy the UKMET snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Coldest version yet Notice the cold settling South and directed ESE and almost a - 4 SD cold near Northern Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Brrr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Cold Air Outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, frd said: Couple issues with timing and suppression. Similar concerns from before. Now watch the cold come and we go dry. Not sure I buy the UKMET snowfall. Still time ofc, but trends are not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still time ofc, but trends are not good. Clearly I can’t read timestamps. I was about to respond and say “wow, those trends look great..look at how its sharper and heights are higher on the EC”. It’s a good thing I stick to being a weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 When is this arctic blast supposed to start? And how low are our temps going to be? Single digits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: Clearly I can’t read timestamps. I was about to respond and say “wow, those trends look great..look at how its sharper and heights are higher on the EC”. It’s a good thing I stick to being a weenie. The look beyond this period is nuts ! The players modeled normally proceed big dog events. I still like 2/10 to 2/17 and even beyond 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I think the Euro Ensembles are back for Sunday? Anyone care to confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 This is not an arctic "bust". You're looking at forecasts that are based off the GFS which probably doesn't have a clue. Both the GEFS and EPS support an extended period of much colder than normal temperatures. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, midatlanticweather said: I think the Euro Ensembles are back for Sunday? Anyone care to confirm? Thought I heard they degraded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: This is not an arctic "bust". You're looking at forecasts that are based off the GFS which probably doesn't have a clue. Both the GEFS and EPS support an extended period of much colder than normal temperatures. Relax. LOL! I know it will be cold, I just had an idea it would be a bit colder! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: This is not an arctic "bust". You're looking at forecasts that are based off the GFS which probably doesn't have a clue. Both the GEFS and EPS support an extended period of much colder than normal temperatures. Relax. Check this out - 4 Wow !! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 53 minutes ago, frd said: What in the world made accu weather jump the gun forecasting , even though two options were presented, that a huge snowstorm would hit the East Coast ? It never was even close . Because the benefits are so high (if there is one, crowing press release about how they are better than the NWS and called it well ahead of time ) and the downside so low (if there isn't one, basically a handful of people on this board or like them even notice or care). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I think the Euro Ensembles are back for Sunday? Anyone care to confirm? I would say not so much. Wrong way from the 0z run. Could also see something along the front, but haven't looked too deeply into that possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Only bust I've seen all winter is the predicted torches by guidance and many pros . Hope it continues. It's been 30 s ,40s and some 20s highs here for 6 weeks + . Never even a mini torch . Plenty of "cold enough " air around to score . We were simply unlucky ....but the last 4 days we scored . Hopefully more to come . I agree whole heartedly. We don't need record cold. As long as its not 38 in Pittsburgh when a storm is approaching. Everything looks good in loading to source region with deep cold. Better than any point so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 WB 6Z EPS not honking for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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