Weather Will Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 18Z EPS control trending off the coast and weaker. 18Z v 12Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 1:19 AM, Weather Will said: 18Z EPS control trending off the coast and weaker. 18Z v 12Z. Expand Pretty big jump there. Eta: just guessing without seeing h5 but that shows how much of a thread the needle this one is. A phase or partial (12z) and it is an inside runner. Missed phase (18z) and it slides ots quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 1:30 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Pretty big jump there Expand It's the control! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 1:19 AM, Weather Will said: 18Z EPS control trending off the coast and weaker. 18Z v 12Z. Expand This is not the Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:05 AM, stormtracker said: This is not the Ensembles. Expand We need snowfall % maps. WW is slacking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 9% probability of 48'' or greater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:11 AM, JakkelWx said: 9% probability of 48'' or greater Expand Lol nice one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:22 AM, losetoa6 said: Another decent hit on the icon for Sunday. Good 0z start Expand Suspect the GFS will still be squashed south.... but it would be nice to see it begin to at least hint a north solution is possible at h5/500mb. We’re about 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:22 AM, losetoa6 said: Another decent hit on the icon for Sunday. Good 0z start Expand Snow to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:39 AM, midatlanticweather said: Snow to rain Expand another foot for NYC you say? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Who is going to explain about ICON thermals again. I feel like we've discussed it like 500 times and no one listens. And that cutter like track when other guidance is either squashed or a hit (Euro). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Verbatim ICON is not a good setup for the metros. It is sort of a Miller A/B that ends up running inland for the cities and then transfers to the coast north of us. At least it shows a storm and its still 5 days out. Oh, and it’s the ICON so the verbatim solution will change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS is not gonna do it again this run. Again, at least we have a storm on the map to track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GFS is as stubborn as ever. Stronger southern vort this run at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 3:44 AM, jayyy said: another foot for NYC you say? Expand I know. I’ve thought about that like 4..5..100 times today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Shouldn't expect it to fix itself magically overnight. We know it'll be run after run of a miss because the GFS just sucks. Period. (Unless the EUro shows the same thing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 4:02 AM, clskinsfan said: GFS is as stubborn as ever. Stronger southern vort this run at least. Expand This one is a true model war. Kinda thinking the Euro folds tonight 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 4:04 AM, stormtracker said: This one is a true model war. Kinda thinking the Euro folds tonight Expand Knowing how this season in modeling has gone so far...I'll bet it doesn't, just to prolong the confusion, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Hey while we await Dr. Nos arrival, question: I remember for years we would always talk about the jet stream—not something I’ve heard lately probably bc it hasn’t been close to our favor for the better part of 4 years. However, for this one, doesn’t it favor our odds a bit bc it is forming more to the south? I know that also increases % of OTS as well but...just wondering if this track (not that it’s defined yet of course) is better than the one last weekend for our purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GEFS looks quite improved for the weekend threat. Almost in line with the EPS in both precip and snow mean. Waiting for additional panels to come out such as lp locations. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Improved cluster! Seems like the GEFS is in the ICON/Euro/EPS camp. Canadian politely declined joining for the 0z suite, not without apologizing of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Actually pretty encouraged by trend on the GEFS. not going to stay up for it, but curious to see what 0z euro has to say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/2/2021 at 11:16 PM, SnowGolfBro said: Not a bad look 5 days out. A couple ticks more over the next couple days and we will be sweating too far North lol Expand Too far south good problem to have . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Ukie is a decent hit, super thin 3-6" stripe just like what the Euro drops on us. Really similar solution in fact. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 0z Euro may be telling as to whether or not it’ll be the one caving, or Vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 4:59 AM, Cobalt said: Ukie is a decent hit, super thin 3-6" stripe just like what the Euro drops on us. Really similar solution in fact. Expand Perfectly ok with a 2-4 3-6 type storm to kick off this ripe February pattern 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Euro caves. Damn 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Euro trying to set up a big storm. in the MS valley at 144.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 For the day 10 storm I'm a bit worried about suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 2/3/2021 at 6:30 AM, Amped said: Euro trying to set up a big storm. in the MS valley at 144.. Expand yeah I like that look.. simple west to east progression.. lots of cold air.. maybe we can get an easy snow storm.. this winter has been very stressful wrt tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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